山东省农产品贸易与农民收入关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-22 22:18

本文选题：农产品贸易 + 农民收入　；参考：《山东财经大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：促进农民增收是扩大国内需求,实现国民经济良性发展的关键。伴随着国际贸易的深入开展,农产品贸易成为影响农民收入的重要方面。山东省是中国最大的农产品贸易省,2014年山东省农产品贸易总额高达427亿美元,其中农产品出口贸易额157.3亿美元,连续16年居于全国首位。山东省农村居民人均纯收入持续增长,近年来位于全国前列。利用山东省17地市面板数据,具体研究山东省农产品贸易与农民收入之间存在的数量关系具有典型的代表意义。而山东省沿海地市与内陆地市在地理位置、交通运输、经济发展程度等方面的差异,可能会导致山东省沿海地市与内陆地市农产品贸易对农民收入产生不同的影响。因此分别考察山东沿海和内陆地市农产品贸易对农民收入的影响是否存在区域差异,可以为山东省政府在农业、外贸等方面政策的制订,以及分地区有侧重的实施政策提供数据上的参考和借鉴。在综合概括相关文献的基础上,文章首先分析农产品贸易影响农民收入的理论基础和作用机制;其次,运用统计分析法,对山东省农产品贸易和农民收入进行描述分析;再次,运用面板数据模型,分总体、沿海地市、内陆地市三组实证分析农产品贸易对农民收入的影响效果以及地区差异。为增加研究的现实性,模型还引入了政策变量粮食补贴额、以及第一产业和第二、三产业产值等变量。实证结果表明:1.山东省农产品出口贸易对农民收入的增加具有显著的促进作用,且沿海地市农产品出口贸易对农民增收的效果比内陆地市更为显著;2.山东省农产品进口贸易对于农民收入具有负面作用,在山东省总体和内陆地市样本下,负面效果并不显著,在沿海地市样本下,农产品进口的负面作用较为显著。最后,总结本文的实证分析结果并提出相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:Promoting farmers' income is the key to expand domestic demand and realize benign development of national economy. With the development of international trade, agricultural trade has become an important aspect of farmers' income. Shandong Province is China's largest agricultural trade ministry, with a total agricultural trade of $42.7 billion in 2014, including $15.73 billion in agricultural exports, ranking first in the country for 16 years in a row. Shandong Province rural residents per capita net income continued to grow, in recent years in the forefront of the country. It is of typical significance to study the quantitative relationship between agricultural product trade and farmers' income in Shandong Province by using the panel data of 17 cities in Shandong Province. The differences between coastal cities and inland cities in geographical location, transportation and economic development may lead to different impacts on farmers' income caused by agricultural products trade between coastal cities and inland cities in Shandong Province. Therefore, whether there are regional differences in the impact of agricultural product trade on farmers' income in Shandong coastal and inland cities can be considered as a policy formulation for the Shandong provincial government in agriculture and foreign trade. As well as the implementation of regional focus on the implementation of policy to provide data reference and reference. On the basis of summarizing the relevant literature, the paper firstly analyzes the theoretical basis and mechanism of agricultural product trade affecting farmers' income; secondly, it uses statistical analysis method to describe and analyze agricultural product trade and farmers' income in Shandong Province; thirdly, By using panel data model, the paper analyzes the effect of agricultural product trade on farmers' income and regional differences in three groups: overall, coastal and inland. In order to increase the reality of the research, the model also introduces the policy variable, grain subsidy amount, and the output value of the primary industry and the second and third industries. The empirical results show that 1: 1. The export trade of agricultural products in Shandong Province has a significant promoting effect on the increase of farmers' income, and the effect of export trade of agricultural products in coastal cities on farmers' income is more significant than that in inland cities. The import trade of agricultural products in Shandong Province has a negative effect on farmers' income. Under the samples of Shandong Province and inland cities, the negative effects are not significant, but the negative effects of agricultural products imports are more significant in coastal cities. Finally, this paper summarizes the empirical analysis results and puts forward relevant policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F327

【共引文献】