农业生产性服务业对农业溢出效应的研究

发布时间：2018-07-01 09:39

本文选题：农业 + 生产性服务业　；参考：《河南大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：中国是一个农业大国,如何把农业大国变成农业强国是我们面临的巨大挑战。我国的农业人口数量庞大,促进农民增产增收,提高农业的生产效率和优化农业产业结构势在必行。近年来,中国的第三产业迅速发展,其中生产性务业作为第三产业中最具发展潜力的一部其发展也最为迅速。生产性服务业对国民经济的发展具有重要的意义,由于中国是一个农业大国,农业对我国的国民经济具有其它产业不可替代的重要作用,所以,我们有必要研究生产性服务业对农业溢出效应。为了加快中国特色的农业化道路,我们应该加快生产服务业发展的步伐,提高劳动者素质,加大对农业的科技投入和提高农业机械化水平,促进生产的社会化和专业化,以实现现代服务业外溢效益的最大化。通过研究农业生产性服务业对农业的溢出效应,有助于我国农业结构的优化和升级、农业经济发展模式的转变、解放农村剩余劳动和提高我国城镇化水平,对我国农业的可持续、健康、有序的发展具有重大的意义。因此,本文从定性和定量两个方面进行了论述。定性方面,通过对现有研究成果进行收集、整理、阅读、分析和梳理,在此基础之上对生产性服务业对农业溢出效应的溢出机理进行详细分析和论述,从产生机理、溢出效率和溢出渠道等各个步骤讨论生产性服务业对农业的溢出效应。定量方面:首先,利用1999--2012全国的时间序列数据作为分析资料,利用时间序列数据建立模型,对农业生产性服务业对农业的外溢效应的存在性进行检验,其次,利用VAR模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析测算农业生产性性服务业对农业总产值的贡献度,然后用灰色关联模型进一步分析农业生产性服务业的主要细分行业与农业总产值的关联度。分析结果表明:从长期来看,农业生产性服务业对农业的外溢效应是确切存在的,农业生产性服务业的发展壮大有助与其对农业的外溢效应。同时,社会分工越来越专业化,这是农业生产性服务业对农业发展产生溢出效应的动力之源。本文认为农业科技水平、劳动者生产技能、农业基础设施和农业生产机械化水平在很大程度上推进了社会分工和专业化生产,是农业生产性服务业的主要溢出渠道。本文的创新之处是在检验生产性服务业与农业的因果关系的基础上,然后通过灰色关联法分析农业生产性服务业的主要细分行业与农业的关联度。不足之处是虽然利用不同的方法论证了农业生产性服务业对农业的影响和溢出渠道,但是没有对其溢出效率进行测算。
[Abstract]:China is a big agricultural country, how to turn a big agricultural country into an agricultural power is a great challenge we face. It is imperative to improve the agricultural production efficiency and optimize the agricultural industrial structure because of the large number of agricultural population in our country. In recent years, China's tertiary industry has developed rapidly, among which the productive service industry, as the most potential part of the tertiary industry, has also developed most rapidly. Producer services are of great significance to the development of the national economy. As China is a large agricultural country and agriculture plays an irreplaceable role in the national economy of our country, It is necessary to study the spillover effect of producer services on agriculture. In order to speed up the agricultural road with Chinese characteristics, we should speed up the pace of the development of the production and service industry, improve the quality of the workers, increase the scientific and technological input to agriculture and raise the level of agricultural mechanization, and promote the socialization and specialization of production. In order to realize the maximization of spillover benefit of modern service industry. By studying the spillover effect of agricultural producer services on agriculture, it is helpful to optimize and upgrade the agricultural structure of our country, to change the mode of agricultural economic development, to liberate the surplus labor in rural areas and to improve the level of urbanization in our country. It is of great significance to the sustainable, healthy and orderly development of agriculture in China. Therefore, this article has carried on the discussion from the qualitative and the quantitative two aspects. Qualitatively, through collecting, collating, reading, analyzing and combing the existing research results, on the basis of this, the spillover mechanism of producer services to agriculture is analyzed and discussed in detail. The spillover effect of producer services on agriculture is discussed in various steps, such as spillover efficiency and spillover channel. Quantitative aspects: firstly, using the time series data of China from 1999 to 2012 as the analysis data, using the time series data to establish a model to test the existence of spillover effect of agricultural producer services on agriculture, secondly, using VAR model, Impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis were used to estimate the contribution of agricultural producer services to the total agricultural output value, and then the grey relational model was used to further analyze the correlation degree between the main subdivisions of agricultural producer services and the total agricultural output value. The results show that, in the long run, the spillover effect of agricultural producer services on agriculture is real, and the development of agricultural producer services is helpful to its spillover effect on agriculture. At the same time, social division of labor is becoming more and more specialized, which is the source of spill-over effect of agricultural producer service. This paper holds that the level of agricultural science and technology, laborer's production skills, agricultural infrastructure and agricultural production mechanization promote the social division of labor and specialized production to a great extent, and are the main spillover channels of agricultural producer service industry. The innovation of this paper is to test the causality between producer services and agriculture, and then to analyze the correlation degree between the main subsectors of agricultural producer services and agriculture by grey correlation method. The deficiency is that although different methods are used to demonstrate the impact of agricultural producer services on agriculture and spillover channels, it does not measure its spillover efficiency.
【学位授予单位】：河南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323

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