基于饲料需求的我国饲料谷物需求预测分析

发布时间：2018-07-02 09:24

本文选题：饲料谷物 + 畜产品　；参考：《中国农业大学学报》2017年05期

【摘要】：为探讨肉蛋奶生产对饲料谷物需求量,利用误差修正模型和ARIMA模型,基于1980—2013年我国肉蛋奶产量和饲料谷物消费量的数据进行预测分析。结果发现,未来肉蛋奶产量和饲料谷物需求量均呈现逐年增长的态势,2025年肉蛋奶产量将达到18 788万t,饲料谷物需求量将突破20 000万t,达到21 596万t。未来饲料谷物的供需平衡关乎我国畜产品的有效供给。因此,合理扩大饲料谷物的生产面积,提高单产水平以及适度进口、加大饲料科技投入和提高科技转化效率可能是缓解饲料谷物需求压力的有效途径。
[Abstract]:In order to study the demand of meat, egg and milk production for feed grain, the error correction model and Arima model were used to forecast and analyze the output of meat, egg and milk and the consumption of feed grain in China from 1980 to 2013. The results showed that the future production of meat, egg and milk and the demand of feed grain would increase year by year. The output of meat, egg and milk would reach 187.88 million t in 2025, and the demand of feed grain would exceed 200 million t, reaching 215.96 million t. The balance between supply and demand of forage cereals in the future relates to the effective supply of animal products in China. Therefore, it may be an effective way to reduce the pressure of feed grain demand by reasonably enlarging the production area of forage grain, increasing the level of unit yield and moderate import, increasing the input of feed science and technology and improving the efficiency of scientific and technological transformation.
【作者单位】：中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所;新疆农业职业技术学院;
【基金】：基金项目中国农业科学院科技创新工程(ASTIP-IAED-2015-01)
【分类号】：F324.6

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