陕西省林业产业结构优化调整及发展策略研究

发布时间：2018-07-05 12:43

本文选题：林业产业 + 灰色关联分析　；参考：《西北农林科技大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：林业产业涉及国民经济一、二、三产业,呈现基础性、多样性、生态性、战略性等特征。发展林业产业,是促进林业生态建设持续发展、保障林产品供给、建设生态文明的客观要求,也是增加农民收入、解决“三农”问题的有效途径。陕西省森林资源丰富多样,具备良好的林业产业发展的区位条件。近来年随着林业产业发展政策体系的不断完善,陕西省林业产业发展取得了初步成效,但林业产业内各产业之间的比例不协调,产业关系失衡。2014年陕西省林业第一、二、三产业产值结构比例为79:12:9,以第一产业为主,二、三产业发展滞后,属初级产业结构特征。产业结构不协调仍是制约陕西林业产业快速发展的主要因素之一。因此,本文通过分析陕西省林业产业发展成效和问题,运用灰色关联分析对林业产业结构关联度和动态变化分析,运用一元线性回归预测的方法对2016-2020年各产业产值进行预测,提出调整方案和建议,研究结果表明:(1)一、二、三产业产值对林业产业总产值的关联度分别为:0.9789,0.8522,0.7685,第一产业与总产值的关联性最强,第二产业次之,第三产业关联性最弱;(2)陕西省林业第一产业对林业产业总产值的影响程度最大,2014年第一产业产值占总产值的比重达到79.30%,2005—2014年之间第一产业产值占总产值的比重平均在86.23%,第一产业在陕西省整个林业产业结构中处于主导地位;(3)预测到2020年,陕西林业产业总产值17718610万元,第一产业产值13690825万元,第二产业产值2461470万元,第三产业产值1566216万元,林业产业产值结构比例为77:14:9,未来五年内陕西省林业产业结构仍处于“第一产业为主导,第二、三产业发展滞后”的局面;(4)陕西省林业产业发展策略和建议:1)依托优势,弥补发展不足;2)巩固第一产业,突破第二产业,带动第三产业;3)完善政策和社会化服务体系。
[Abstract]:Forestry industry is related to the first, second and third industries of national economy, showing basic, diverse, ecological, strategic and other characteristics. The development of forestry industry is the objective requirement of promoting the sustainable development of forestry ecological construction, ensuring the supply of forest products and constructing ecological civilization. It is also an effective way to increase farmers' income and solve the problems of "three rural areas". Shaanxi Province is rich in forest resources and has good location conditions for the development of forestry industry. In recent years, with the continuous improvement of the forestry industry development policy system, the forestry industry development in Shaanxi Province has made initial achievements, but the proportion of the various industries in the forestry industry is not coordinated, and the industrial relationship is out of balance. In 2014, Shaanxi forestry was the first and second. The ratio of output value of the three industries is 79: 12: 9, mainly in the primary industry, and the development of the second and third industries lags behind, which belongs to the characteristics of the primary industrial structure. The disharmony of industrial structure is still one of the main factors restricting the rapid development of Shaanxi forestry industry. Therefore, this paper analyzes the achievements and problems of forestry industry development in Shaanxi Province, uses grey relational analysis to analyze the correlation degree and dynamic change of forestry industry structure, and forecasts the output value of each industry in 2016-2020 by using the method of linear regression prediction. The research results show that: (1) the correlation degree of the output value of the first, second and third industries to the total output value of forestry industry is respectively: 1. 0. 9789 / 0.852222 / 0.7685. The correlation between the primary industry and the total output value is the strongest, followed by the secondary industry. (2) the forestry primary industry in Shaanxi Province has the greatest influence on the total output value of forestry industry, and the proportion of the primary industry output value to the total output value in 2014 has reached 79.30% and the proportion of the primary industry output value in the total output value between 2005 and 2014 has reached 79.30% of the total output value. The average is 86.23, the primary industry is dominant in the whole forestry industry structure of Shaanxi Province; (3) it is predicted that by 2020, The total output value of the forestry industry in Shaanxi is 177.1861 billion yuan, the output value of the primary industry is 136.90825 billion yuan, the output value of the secondary industry is 24.6147 billion yuan, and the output value of the third industry is 15.66216 billion yuan. The ratio of forestry output value structure is 77: 14: 9. In the next five years, the forestry industrial structure of Shaanxi Province is still in the situation of "primary industry is dominant, the second and third industries are lagging behind"; (4) Shaanxi Province forestry industry development strategy and suggestions: 1) rely on advantages. To make up for the lack of development 2) to consolidate the primary industry, to break through the secondary industry, and to promote the tertiary industry 3) to improve the policy and socialized service system.
【学位授予单位】：西北农林科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F326.27

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