基于CA-Markov模型的抚仙湖流域土地利用变化情景模拟

发布时间：2018-07-09 18:58

本文选题：GIS空间分析 + CA-Markov模型　；参考：《昆明理工大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：土地利用变化问题已经成为全球研究的热点,土地利用变化的研究是土地利用类型和数量的研究,也是土地利用变化模型的研究,土地利用变化模型的建立、模拟、预测是土地利用研究的重要内容。土地利用变化模型从定量和定性两个方向来预测未来研究区土地利用变化的趋势。土地利用变化的研究对生态环境保护、城市规划以及气候变化都有着重要的意义。人类对土地的不合理开发利用,造成了水土流失、洪涝灾害、泥石流等自然灾害,同时也造成了土地荒漠化、水资源污染以及土壤污染等人为灾害。随着中国经济日益增长,社会不断进步,人口快速增加,使得中国城市化日益加快。昆明城市化进度不断提升,经济也在不断增加。与此同时,高原湖泊地区——抚仙湖流域的生态问题日益凸显,与城市化用地趋势有着显著的冲突,因此对抚仙湖流域土地利用变化的研究与模拟预测有着十分重大的意义,对土地利用可持续发展起到决策的作用。本文以抚仙湖流域为研究对象,利用ArcGIS软件空间分析对该流域不同时期土地利用状况和动态变化特征进行研究分析;通过CA-Markov模型对该流域2009-2015年土地利用变化进行研究,并运用IDRISI软件中CROSSTAB模块,在空间上对2015年实际和预测的土地利用现状图做空间叠加分析;利用得到的Kappa指数来评定空间上模拟精度,并模拟和预测未来2018年抚仙湖流域土地利用变化情况;根据未来城市不同发展趋势以及政策变化,设定三个不同的情境,对2018年抚仙湖流域土地利用现状发展趋势进行模拟,并对结果进行评估比较。本论文的主要结论如下:(1)土地利用类型面积变化。随着人类经济活动的增加,抚仙湖流域在2009～2015年间土地利用结构发生了改变,林地面积、园地面积、草地面积、房屋建筑(区)面积、道路面积以及人工堆掘地面积逐年增加的,而耕地面积、构筑物面积、荒漠与裸露地表面积和水域面积则呈减低趋势。(2)土地利用类型动态度变化分析。从单一土地利用类型动态度可知,2009～2015年园地、构筑物、人工堆掘地,荒漠与裸露地表变化较大,其他类型土地变化较小,变化最小的为水域。从综合土地利用类型动态度可知,抚仙湖流域9年综合土地利用类型动态度先增加后减少,2009-2012年抚仙湖流域土地利用变化较为剧烈,2012-2015年抚仙湖流域土地利用变化剧烈程度明显降低。(3)模拟精度的评定。将2015年模拟的土地利用现状图与2015年实际的土地利用现状图对比,并利用IDRISI软件中CROSSTAB模块,得到的Kappa指数来评定空间上模拟精度,模拟结果Kappa指数为89.42%。该模拟结果表明预测结果与实际现状图模拟效果较好,一致性较高,具有可行性。
[Abstract]:The issue of land use change has become a global research hotspot. The study of land use change is not only the study of land use type and quantity, but also the study of land use change model, the establishment and simulation of land use change model. Prediction is an important part of land use research. The land use change model predicts the trend of land use change in the future. The study of land use change is of great significance to ecological environment protection, urban planning and climate change. The unreasonable exploitation and utilization of land have caused many natural disasters, such as soil erosion, flood disaster, debris flow and so on. At the same time, they have also caused man-made disasters such as desertification of land, pollution of water resources and soil pollution. With the economic growth, social progress and rapid population growth, China's urbanization is accelerating day by day. Kunming urbanization progress continues to improve, the economy is also increasing. At the same time, the ecological problems of Fuxian Lake basin in plateau lake area are increasingly prominent, which has a significant conflict with the trend of urbanization land use, so it is of great significance to study and simulate the land use change in Fuxian Lake basin. To the land use sustainable development to play the decision function. This paper takes Fuxian Lake Basin as the research object, uses the ArcGIS software spatial analysis to study the land use condition and the dynamic change characteristic of the watershed in different periods, and studies the land use change in this basin from 2009 to 2015 by CA-Markov model. Using the CROSSTAB module of IDRISI software, the spatial superposition analysis of the actual and forecasted land use status map in 2015 is done, and the Kappa index is used to evaluate the spatial simulation accuracy. And simulate and predict the land use change in Fuxian Lake basin in the coming 2018. According to the different development trend and policy change of the city in the future, set up three different situations to simulate the development trend of land use status in Fuxian Lake basin in 2018. The results were evaluated and compared. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) area change of land use type. With the increase of human economic activities, the land use structure of Fuxian Lake Basin has changed in 2009 and 2015, including woodland area, garden area, grassland area, building area. The road area and artificial pile excavation area increased year by year, while the cultivated land area, structure area, desert and bare surface area and water area showed a decreasing trend. (2) dynamic change analysis of land use type. From the dynamic degree of single land use type, it can be seen that from 2009 to 2015, the changes of garden land, structures, artificial heaped land, desert and bare land surface are larger, while the other types of land have little change and the least change is water area. According to the dynamic degree of comprehensive land use type, The dynamic degree of comprehensive land use types in Fuxian Lake basin increased first and then decreased in 2009-2012. The severity of land use change in Fuxian Lake basin from 2012-2015 to 2012-2015 decreased obviously. (3) Evaluation of simulation accuracy. By comparing the land use status map simulated in 2015 with the actual land use status map in 2015, and using the CROSSTAB module in IDRISI software, the Kappa index is obtained to evaluate the spatial simulation accuracy. The Kappa index is 89.42. The simulation results show that the simulation results are good, consistent and feasible.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F301.2;P208

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