区域土地承载力研究及实例分析
[Abstract]:The land carrying capacity is the threshold of the scale and intensity of the human activities that the land resources can carry under certain period, certain space area, certain social, economic and ecological environment, which can be characterized by the population and the scale of GDP respectively. Because the area is certain, the population and the demand for the land are competing with the GDP, a person. The size of the mouth size corresponds to a GDP threshold. Under the current trend of population development in China, the regional population can be predicted or changed little. Therefore, the maximum value of the economic scale supported by regional land can be calculated under a certain population scale. Based on the composition of GDP, a comprehensive model framework of the economic part of the land carrying capacity is set up, and the introduction of the comprehensive model framework of the economic part of the land carrying capacity is introduced. The land economic output rate parameters link the land area with the economy and refine the comprehensive model. This comprehensive model involves many parameters such as population, crop yield, consumption level, land economic output rate and so on. The calculation methods and models of these parameters can be used as submodels of the comprehensive model. The result has a great influence on the results of the comprehensive model, so the results reliability of the integrated model is studied from the selection of the parameter method, the accuracy test method of the parameter prediction accuracy, the reliability of the error transfer and the model results, and the accessibility. Finally, the G can be supported by the regional land under a certain population scale. The maximum value of DP and the interval of the maximum value of GDP under 95% confidence degree. From the point of view of the rational utilization of industrial land, the paper studies how to improve the bearing capacity of industrial land. The industrial land is the most important land type for the economic part of the land carrying capacity, and the redistribution of industrial land to the leading industry can effectively improve the land economic bearing capacity. Three aspects of development, land resource utilization and ecological environment protection have been determined in three aspects, 6 indexes are selected as the sorting basis for selecting the leading industries of the region. The maximum emission of four kinds of pollutants, with COD, ammonia nitrogen, SO2, and NOx as the constraint conditions, is set up to maximize the industrial value added. The result is that the industrial land is the most important in the industry. The main conclusions of Yangzhou city are as follows: (1) when the population of Yangzhou is 4 million 649 thousand and 87 people in 2020, the land area distribution and the GDP threshold of carrying capacity are 1862.68 km~2, the maximum construction land area is 3638.06 km~2, and the maximum construction land area is more than 2015 NEW. If the area of the construction land is increased 686.86 km~2., if the area is no longer redistributed, the economic output rate of agricultural land is 7 million 510 thousand yuan /km~2 in 2020, the economic output rate of construction land is 396 million 680 thousand yuan /km~2, and the GDP threshold of the land is 1 trillion and 457 billion 134 million yuan, which is 2.5027 times of the current economic development trend, and its 9 The prediction interval of 5% confidence level is 14188.35 to 1 trillion and 495 billion 433 million yuan. (2) according to the proportion of industrial output value, industrial added value growth rate, industrial added value per unit area, growth rate of industrial output value per unit area, SO2 emission efficiency, NOx emission efficiency, COD discharge efficiency, and ammonia nitrogen discharge efficiency, 9 main types are selected after comprehensive sequencing of ammonia nitrogen emission efficiency. Leading industries are: electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing, metal products, general equipment manufacturing, non-ferrous metal smelting and calender industry, chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing, other manufacturing industries. It is not higher than COD, ammonia nitrogen, SO2 The total amount of the four kinds of NOx pollutants is restricted, and the new construction land is redistributed. When the construction land is redistributed for 686.86km~2, the economic bearing capacity of the industrial land which can be supported by the new industrial land is 1 trillion and 928 billion 703 million yuan. When the construction land is redistributed for 555.00km~2, the new industrial land can be supported by the industrial land economy. When the redistribution of construction land is 408.45km~2, the economic carrying capacity of the new industrial land that can be supported is 1 trillion and 146 billion 928 million yuan, with a force of 1 trillion and 558 billion 440 million yuan.
【学位授予单位】:扬州大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2017
【分类号】:F301.2
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