区域土地承载力研究及实例分析

发布时间：2018-07-26 20:11

【摘要】：土地承载力是在一定时期,一定空间区域,一定的社会、经济、生态环境条件下,土地资源所能承载的人类各种活动的规模和强度的阈值,可分别用人口和GDP规模表征。由于区域面积是一定的,人口与GDP对土地的需求呈竞争的关系,一个人口规模数值对应一个GDP阈值。在我国人口现状发展趋势下,区域人口是可以预测或变化不大的,因此,可以计算得到一定人口规模下,区域土地能够支撑的经济规模最大值。基于GDP的构成,搭建了土地承载力经济部分的综合模型框架,引入土地经济产出率参数将土地面积与经济联系起来,细化了综合模型。该综合模型涉及人口、作物产量、消费水平、土地经济产出率等多个参数,这些参数的计算方法及模型可作为综合模型的子模型,由于参数取值的方法或模型较多,参数的结果对综合模型的结果又有较大的影响,所以从参数方法的选择、参数预测精度检验方法、误差传递和模型结果的可靠性、可达性等方面对综合模型的结果可靠性进行了研究,最后可以得到目标年,一定人口规模下,区域土地能够支撑的GDP最大值,以及95%置信度下GDP最大值的区间。从工业用地合理利用的角度研究了如何提高工业用地承载力。工业用地是对土地承载力经济部分影响最大的用地类型,工业用地再分配给主导行业可以有效提高土地经济承载力。论文从工业发展、土地资源利用、生态环境保护三个方面确定了6个指标作为筛选区域主导行业时的排序依据;建立了以COD、氨氮、SO2、NOx四种污染物的最大排放量为约束条件,以工业增加值最大化为目标的公式组,其结果就是工业用地在行业间的最优再分配。以扬州市为实例分析的主要结论如下:(1)2020年扬州市人口为464.9087万人时,土地面积分配及承载的GDP阈值:满足该数量人口高水平食物消费需求量所需的最小农用地面积为1862.68 km~2,最大建设用地面积为3638.06 km~2,较2015年新增可用建设用地面积686.86 km~2。若不再进行更细层次的面积再分配,按现状发展趋势,2020年农用地经济产出率为0.0751亿元/km~2、建设用地经济产出率为3.9668亿元/km~2,土地可承载的GDP阈值为14571.34亿元,是按现状经济发展趋势的2.5027倍,其95%置信度水平上预测区间为14188.35～14954.33亿元。(2)按工业产值占工业总产值的比例、工业增加值增长速度、单位面积工业增加值、单位面积工业产值增长速度、SO2排放效率、NOx排放效率、COD排放效率、氨氮排放效率综合排序后筛选出9个主导行业,分别为:电气机械和器材制造业、汽车制造业、专用设备制造业、计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业、金属制品业、通用设备制造业、有色金属冶炼和压延加工业、化学原料和化学制品制造业、其他制造业。以不高于基准年COD、氨氮、SO2、NOx四种污染物的排放总量为约束条件,对新增建设用地进行再分配。可再分配建设用地为686.86km~2时,新增工业用地可支撑的工业用地经济承载力为19287.03亿元;可再分配建设用地为555.00km~2时,新增工业用地可支撑的工业用地经济承载力为15584.40亿元;可再分配建设用地为408.45km~2时,新增工业用地可支撑的工业用地经济承载力为11469.28亿元。
[Abstract]:The land carrying capacity is the threshold of the scale and intensity of the human activities that the land resources can carry under certain period, certain space area, certain social, economic and ecological environment, which can be characterized by the population and the scale of GDP respectively. Because the area is certain, the population and the demand for the land are competing with the GDP, a person. The size of the mouth size corresponds to a GDP threshold. Under the current trend of population development in China, the regional population can be predicted or changed little. Therefore, the maximum value of the economic scale supported by regional land can be calculated under a certain population scale. Based on the composition of GDP, a comprehensive model framework of the economic part of the land carrying capacity is set up, and the introduction of the comprehensive model framework of the economic part of the land carrying capacity is introduced. The land economic output rate parameters link the land area with the economy and refine the comprehensive model. This comprehensive model involves many parameters such as population, crop yield, consumption level, land economic output rate and so on. The calculation methods and models of these parameters can be used as submodels of the comprehensive model. The result has a great influence on the results of the comprehensive model, so the results reliability of the integrated model is studied from the selection of the parameter method, the accuracy test method of the parameter prediction accuracy, the reliability of the error transfer and the model results, and the accessibility. Finally, the G can be supported by the regional land under a certain population scale. The maximum value of DP and the interval of the maximum value of GDP under 95% confidence degree. From the point of view of the rational utilization of industrial land, the paper studies how to improve the bearing capacity of industrial land. The industrial land is the most important land type for the economic part of the land carrying capacity, and the redistribution of industrial land to the leading industry can effectively improve the land economic bearing capacity. Three aspects of development, land resource utilization and ecological environment protection have been determined in three aspects, 6 indexes are selected as the sorting basis for selecting the leading industries of the region. The maximum emission of four kinds of pollutants, with COD, ammonia nitrogen, SO2, and NOx as the constraint conditions, is set up to maximize the industrial value added. The result is that the industrial land is the most important in the industry. The main conclusions of Yangzhou city are as follows: (1) when the population of Yangzhou is 4 million 649 thousand and 87 people in 2020, the land area distribution and the GDP threshold of carrying capacity are 1862.68 km~2, the maximum construction land area is 3638.06 km~2, and the maximum construction land area is more than 2015 NEW. If the area of the construction land is increased 686.86 km~2., if the area is no longer redistributed, the economic output rate of agricultural land is 7 million 510 thousand yuan /km~2 in 2020, the economic output rate of construction land is 396 million 680 thousand yuan /km~2, and the GDP threshold of the land is 1 trillion and 457 billion 134 million yuan, which is 2.5027 times of the current economic development trend, and its 9 The prediction interval of 5% confidence level is 14188.35 to 1 trillion and 495 billion 433 million yuan. (2) according to the proportion of industrial output value, industrial added value growth rate, industrial added value per unit area, growth rate of industrial output value per unit area, SO2 emission efficiency, NOx emission efficiency, COD discharge efficiency, and ammonia nitrogen discharge efficiency, 9 main types are selected after comprehensive sequencing of ammonia nitrogen emission efficiency. Leading industries are: electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing, metal products, general equipment manufacturing, non-ferrous metal smelting and calender industry, chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing, other manufacturing industries. It is not higher than COD, ammonia nitrogen, SO2 The total amount of the four kinds of NOx pollutants is restricted, and the new construction land is redistributed. When the construction land is redistributed for 686.86km~2, the economic bearing capacity of the industrial land which can be supported by the new industrial land is 1 trillion and 928 billion 703 million yuan. When the construction land is redistributed for 555.00km~2, the new industrial land can be supported by the industrial land economy. When the redistribution of construction land is 408.45km~2, the economic carrying capacity of the new industrial land that can be supported is 1 trillion and 146 billion 928 million yuan, with a force of 1 trillion and 558 billion 440 million yuan.
【学位授予单位】：扬州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F301.2

【参考文献】