南疆三地州县域多维贫困测度研究

发布时间：2018-08-06 08:36

【摘要】：贫困是阻碍人类发展的重要问题,改革开放以来我国的贫困问题一直是制约社会发展,影响区域稳定的重要因子之一。南疆三地州由于地理位置偏远、生态环境恶劣、民族问题等原因,经济发展水平低于我国其他地区,贫困问题极为突出。本文以南疆三地州县域为研究对象,结合研究区贫困状况及指标选取原则,基于脆弱性-可持续生计模型构建多维贫困测度指标体系;运用全排列多边形法、马尔可夫转移矩阵和障碍度模型,分析2005-2014年南疆三地州县域各维度和多维发展指数的变化趋势和空间分布,探析县域贫困等级转变概率,深入分析2010-2014年影响南疆三地州贫困的主要因子,划分不同贫困类型并提出改善措施,为2020年全面脱贫提供理论基础和科学依据。研究结论如下:(1)2005-2014年间南疆三地州金融资本呈快速增长趋势,经济状况逐年好转;人力资本表现为减小-增加趋势;自然资本增长幅度小,整体得分较低,形式依旧严峻;物质资本呈增长趋势,三地州间的差异逐渐缩小;社会资本整体呈增长态势,区域分异明显;脆弱性与其它维度相反,得分降低,三地州脆弱程度减小。(2)2005-2014年县域多维发展指数基本呈上升趋势,三地州县域的贫困程度降低,且2010-2015年整体的增长幅度高于2005-2010年。2005年有87%的县域属于重度和严重贫困,2010年约有68%的县域属于中等贫困,与2005年相比有较大提升,2015年与2010年贫困类型分布相似,虽然各贫困类型的县域数量变化较小,但多维发展指数值比2010年有大幅提升。(3)2005-2014年南疆三地州县域的贫困等级转变有以下特征:2005-2010年,南疆三地州贫困类型稳定性较弱,除中等贫困类型的概率值(0.67)较大外,其余均小于非对角线上的概率值。2010-2014年县域贫困等级发生正向转变的概率高于2005-2009年,严重贫困等级县域消失,中等贫困等级县域的数量增加,表明南疆三地州的县域经过多方面发展贫困程度在逐步降低。(4)2005-2014年影响三地州脱贫的障碍因子发生变化,2005-2010年,农村居民人均纯收入、居民人均储蓄存款、乡村从业人口比重、固定资产投资额和沙尘暴发生频次对贫困程度影响较大。2011-2014年,前五位的障碍因子出现较大变动,义务教育水平、乡村从业人口比重、农村劳动人口性别比、城镇化率和政府收入占支出比成为主要障碍因素。近十年主要的障碍维度从金融资本维度和脆弱性转变为人力资本和社会资本维度。(5)南疆三地州24个县域被划分为7种贫困类型。基础建设不足型包括疏勒县、疏附县和叶城县等6个县域,人力资本不足型包括民丰县、泽普县、麦盖提县和巴楚县4个县域,金融基建兼缺型包括策勒县、英吉沙县和阿克陶县。人力基建兼缺型包括和田市、乌恰县和阿合奇县,生计途径不足型包括于田县和莎车县,发展条件不足型包括皮山县、喀什市和岳普湖县,生存条件不足型包括和田县、墨玉县和洛浦县。
[Abstract]:Poverty is an important problem that hinders human development. Since the reform and opening up, the problem of poverty in China has been one of the important factors that restrict social development and affect regional stability. The three prefectures in southern Xinjiang have lower economic development level than other areas in our country because of their remote geographical location, bad ecological environment and ethnic problems. Taking the county of three prefectures in southern Xinjiang as the research object, combining the poverty situation and the principle of index selection in the study area, this paper builds multidimensional poverty measure index system based on the vulnerability sustainable livelihood model, and analyzes the dimensions and multidimensional of the three prefectures in the three prefectures of Southern Xinjiang for 2005-2014 years by using the full arrangement polygon method, the Markov transfer matrix and the obstacle degree model. The changing trend and spatial distribution of the development index, analyze the transition probability of the county poverty level, analyze the main factors that affect the poverty of the three prefectures in the South Xinjiang in 2010-2014 years, divide the different types of poverty and put forward the improvement measures, and provide the theoretical basis and scientific basis for the overall poverty reduction in 2020. The conclusions are as follows: (1) three lands in southern Xinjiang during the 2005-2014 years. The state financial capital is growing rapidly, the economic situation is improving year by year, the performance of human capital is decreasing and increasing trend; the growth of natural capital is small, the overall score is low, the form is still grim; the material capital is growing, the difference between the three prefectures is gradually narrowing; the overall social capital is growing, the regional differentiation is obvious; frailty and its vulnerability On the contrary, the score is reduced and the vulnerability of the three prefectures is reduced. (2) the 2005-2014 year county multidimensional development index is basically on the rise, the degree of poverty in the three prefectures is lower, and the overall growth rate of 2010-2015 years is higher than that of 87% of the counties in the 2005-2010 years.2005 years. In 2010, about 68% of the counties were medium. Poverty, compared with the 2005, has improved greatly, and the distribution of poverty types in 2015 and 2010 is similar. Although the number of counties in each type of poverty varies slightly, the number of multidimensional development refers to a significant increase compared with 2010. (3) the poverty level of the three Prefecture County in the 2005-2014 year of Southern Xinjiang has the characteristics of lower level: 2005-2010 years, and the stability of the three prefectures in southern Xinjiang is stable. The probability of the type of middle poverty (0.67) is less than that of the middle poverty. The probability of the rest is less than the non diagonal line, the probability of the county poverty level is higher than 2005-2009 years in.2010-2014, the county level of the severe poverty grade disappears and the number of the middle poverty level county increases, which indicates that the county of the three prefectures in southern Xinjiang passes through many aspects. The degree of poverty reduction is gradually decreasing. (4) the obstacle factors that affect the 2005-2014 years of poverty alleviation in three prefectures have changed. In the 2005-2010 year, the per capita net income of rural residents, the per capita savings deposits of the residents, the proportion of rural employees, the frequency of fixed assets investment and the frequency of dust storms have a great impact on the degree of poverty for.2011-2014 years, and the obstacle factors of the top five are out. In recent ten years, the main obstacle dimensions have changed from the dimension and vulnerability of the financial capital to the dimension of human capital and social capital. (5) 24 counties in three prefectures in southern Xinjiang were divided into three areas. The 7 types of poverty, including Shule County, Shufu county and Yecheng County, are 6 counties. The lack of human capital includes 4 counties of Minfeng County, zip County, Mengaiti county and Bachu county. The financial infrastructure and lack types include Qira County, UK, Shaxian County and aktao county. The inadequacy of the livelihoods included in Tian county and Shache County, the inadequate development types include PI Shan county, Kashi city and Yuepuhu County, and the inadequate living conditions include Hetian County, Moyu county and Luopu county.
【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.8

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