基于系统动力模型的四川省粮食生产与消费趋势情景仿真
发布时间：2018-08-27 13:41
【摘要】：主产区粮食的生产与消费预测对国家粮食安全的战略部署意义重大。已有文献在设计中长期预测模型中易出现忽视计量方法假设前提、检验过程及地区修正等问题,因而本文采用系统动力学模型,并在该类模型中创新性地添加动态料肉比、流动人口等修正因子,在对四川省未来粮食生产和消费趋势变化进行建模及检验的基础上,针对不同情景进行了模拟仿真。研究结果表明,未来四川省粮食产需缺口呈逐年扩大的趋势,而采取诸如减少粮食产后折损率和增强农业科技进步等措施虽能减缓粮食消费压力,但短期内在总量上仍旧不能改变粮食无法自足的现状,因此还需采取改变种植品种结构以应对未来粮食需求变化,正确引导膳食结构以及全面提升居民营养水准,来保障四川顺利实施粮食安全战略。
[Abstract]:The prediction of grain production and consumption in main producing areas is of great significance to the strategic deployment of national food security. In the design of medium and long term prediction models, the existing literatures tend to ignore the assumptions of metrological methods, the testing process and the region correction. Therefore, the system dynamics model is adopted in this paper, and the dynamic feed / meat ratio is creatively added to this kind of model. On the basis of modeling and testing the trend of grain production and consumption in Sichuan province, the modified factors, such as floating population, are simulated and simulated in different scenarios. The results show that the gap of grain production and demand in Sichuan Province will be increasing year by year in the future, and that measures such as reducing the rate of postpartum grain losses and enhancing the progress of agricultural science and technology can alleviate the pressure on grain consumption. However, in the short term, it is still unable to change the situation of food self-sufficiency in the short term. Therefore, it is necessary to change the structure of planting varieties to cope with future changes in food demand, to correctly guide the dietary structure and to raise the nutritional standard of the residents in an all-round way. To ensure the smooth implementation of Sichuan food security strategy.
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本文编号：2207464
[Abstract]:The prediction of grain production and consumption in main producing areas is of great significance to the strategic deployment of national food security. In the design of medium and long term prediction models, the existing literatures tend to ignore the assumptions of metrological methods, the testing process and the region correction. Therefore, the system dynamics model is adopted in this paper, and the dynamic feed / meat ratio is creatively added to this kind of model. On the basis of modeling and testing the trend of grain production and consumption in Sichuan province, the modified factors, such as floating population, are simulated and simulated in different scenarios. The results show that the gap of grain production and demand in Sichuan Province will be increasing year by year in the future, and that measures such as reducing the rate of postpartum grain losses and enhancing the progress of agricultural science and technology can alleviate the pressure on grain consumption. However, in the short term, it is still unable to change the situation of food self-sufficiency in the short term. Therefore, it is necessary to change the structure of planting varieties to cope with future changes in food demand, to correctly guide the dietary structure and to raise the nutritional standard of the residents in an all-round way. To ensure the smooth implementation of Sichuan food security strategy.
，
本文编号：2207464
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