基于实物期权理论的粮仓PPP项目风险分配与担保研究

发布时间：2018-09-01 20:54

【摘要】：粮仓建设作为我国基础设施建设的重要组成部分,保障着我国粮食仓储及供给安全,但目前我国仓容量不足、危仓老库问题突出,我国急需增加粮食储备库建设。粮仓建设周期长,政府需要承担巨大的财政压力,PPP(Public-Private Partnership,公私合营)模式较好的缓解了政府的财政压力。粮仓PPP项目在建设、运营各阶段存在着诸如同业竞争等多种风险,无论是政府还是企业,在项目立项初期很难对未来项目的风险清楚界定,引入实物期权理论能够有效地应对项目未来的风险。本文基于实物期权理论,对粮仓PPP项目进行风险分析,通过确定合理政府仓储量担保水平的方式,实现政府和企业在PPP项目中的风险共担,并确保政府与企业各方利益的共赢。论文主要对粮仓建设PPP模式优势、实物期权相关理论及其数理模型、项目风险的实物期权识别、PPP项目的定价模型建立进行了研究,建立了粮食仓储量期权价值模型,以期有效地在项目运营初期实现PPP项目未来风险的应对。通过研究发现,采用实物期权理论能够较好的应对PPP项目风险;通过实物期权数值模型的构建,我们可以得出政府粮食仓储量担保的合理水平,使企业和政府共同分担风险,实现双方利益的均衡和共赢;粮仓建设PPP项目风险问题的出现多是同业竞争等多种风险共同作用的结果,合理政府粮食仓储量担保水平能够较好的应对复合型项目风险。通过本文的研究,希望能够为合理粮仓建设PPP项目风险应对方式的选择以及合理政府粮食仓储量担保水平的确立提供理论依据。
[Abstract]:Grain warehouse construction is an important part of infrastructure construction in our country, which guarantees the security of grain storage and supply in our country. But at present, the storage capacity is insufficient in our country, and the problem of dangerous warehouse old storehouse is outstanding, so it is urgent for our country to increase the construction of grain reserve storehouse. The construction period of granary is long, the government needs to bear the huge financial pressure. PPP (Public-Private Partnership, public-private partnership) model has alleviated the financial pressure of the government. In the construction and operation of granary PPP project, there are many kinds of risks, such as interbank competition and so on. It is difficult to clearly define the risk of future project in the early stage of project establishment, whether it is the government or the enterprise. The introduction of real option theory can effectively deal with the future risks of the project. Based on the real option theory, this paper analyzes the risk of granary PPP project, and realizes the risk sharing between government and enterprise in PPP project by determining the reasonable guarantee level of government storage quantity, and ensures the mutual benefit between government and enterprise. This paper mainly studies the advantages of grain warehouse construction PPP model, the theory of real options and its mathematical model, the pricing model of real option identification of project risk, and establishes the value model of grain storage option. In order to effectively realize the future risk response of PPP project in the early stage of project operation. Through the research, we find that the real option theory can better deal with the risk of PPP projects, through the construction of real options numerical model, we can get the reasonable level of government grain storage guarantee, so that enterprises and governments share the risk. The risk of granary construction PPP project is mostly the result of interbank competition and so on. The reasonable government grain storage guarantee level can better deal with the complex project risk. Through the research of this paper, we hope to provide theoretical basis for the choice of risk response mode of reasonable grain warehouse construction PPP project and the establishment of reasonable government grain storage guarantee level.
【学位授予单位】：河南工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F283;F324.9

【参考文献】