玉米价格变动对吉林省农民家庭经营收入的影响研究
发布时间：2018-09-06 07:35
【摘要】：吉林省是中国重要的粮食主产区,在粮食增产和农民增收方面取得了巨大成就。作为玉米种植大省,吉林省2015年玉米产量2805.7万吨,占全省粮食总产量的77%;2015年吉林省农民家庭平均每人可支配收入为11163元,其中农业收入6598元,占农民家庭人均可支配收入的59.11%,种植玉米已经成为吉林省农民家庭经营收入最主要的收入来源。中国自2008年开始实行玉米临时收储价格政策,农民享受玉米临时收储价格的政策实惠,加之政策兜底不愁销路,种植玉米热情空前高涨;玉米临时收储政策除了加大下游企业的生产成本之外,还扭曲了我国玉米市场正常的供求关系和市场竞争力,形成供求市场的“背逆”现象,一方面造成库存积压,另一方面又造成玉米大量进口。为了解决玉米临储价带来的负面效应,中国在2016年已经确定改玉米临时收储政策为加补分离政策,让玉米价格回归市场价格。市场定价会在一定程度上导致玉米价格下降,如何保证玉米价格下降的同时稳定玉米种植农户的收入,是玉米价格改革的难点。在玉米收储政策改革的背景下,重新审视和研究玉米价格变动与吉林省农民家庭经营收入的长期互动关系,具有重要的现实意义。本文首先选取了1982年—2015年玉米价格与农民家庭经营收入的宏观数据,通过单位根检验、Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验及脉冲响应函数等方法进行实证分析;进而模拟计算玉米价格下降后农户的家庭经营收入,并分析吉林省玉米价格变动对农民家庭经营收入的影响程度。主要包括以下五个部分:第一章,首先说明了本文的研究背景、研究意义,然后对国内外研究文献进行了梳理和评述,最后阐明了本文的研究思路、研究方法、研究创新和不足。第二章,对吉林省玉米价格与农民家庭经营收入的特征进行分析。主要包括对吉林省玉米价格与农民家庭经营收入的历史趋势、影响因素进行研究。第三章,进行实证分析,运用格兰杰因果检验研究玉米价格与农民家庭经营收入的因果关系,运用脉冲响应函数分析玉米价格对农民家庭经营收入的影响程度。第四章,在进行实证分析之后,进行问卷调查,并模拟计算吉林省玉米价格下降后的农民家庭经营收入,并分析了玉米价格下降对农民家庭经营收入的影响程度。第五章,根据前文研究结论,提出相应的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Jilin Province is an important grain production area in China, and has made great achievements in increasing grain production and farmers' income. As a major corn planting province, Jilin Province produced 28.057 million tons of corn in 2015, accounting for 77 percent of the province's total grain yield. In 2015, the average disposable income of farmers in Jilin Province was 11163 yuan per person, of which 6598 yuan was for agriculture. It accounts for 59.11% of the per capita disposable income of farmers, and planting corn has become the main source of income for farmers in Jilin Province. Since 2008, China began to implement the temporary corn storage price policy, farmers enjoy the benefits of corn temporary storage price policy, plus the policy has no worry about the market, corn growing enthusiasm is unprecedented; In addition to increasing the production costs of downstream enterprises, the temporary corn storage policy also distorts the normal supply and demand relationship and market competitiveness in China's corn market and forms a "reverse" phenomenon in the supply and demand market. On the one hand, it causes a backlog of stocks. On the other hand, a large number of corn imports. In order to address the negative effects of the temporary storage price of corn, China has decided in 2016 to change the temporary storage policy of corn to a policy of supplemental separation to allow corn prices to return to market prices. Market pricing will lead to the decline of corn price to a certain extent. How to ensure the decline of corn price while stabilizing the income of corn farmers is the difficult point of corn price reform. Under the background of corn storage policy reform, it is of great practical significance to re-examine and study the long-term interactive relationship between corn price change and farmers' household management income in Jilin Province. This paper firstly selects the macroscopic data of maize price and farmers' household income from 1982 to 2015, and makes an empirical analysis by means of unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test and impulse response function. Then, the household management income of farmers after the corn price drops is calculated, and the influence degree of corn price change on farmers' household management income in Jilin Province is analyzed. It mainly includes the following five parts: the first chapter explains the research background and significance of this paper, then combs and comments the domestic and foreign research literature, and finally clarifies the research ideas and methods of this paper. Research innovation and deficiency. The second chapter analyzes the characteristics of corn price and farmers' household income in Jilin Province. This paper mainly studies the historical trend and influencing factors of corn price and farmers' household income in Jilin Province. In the third chapter, empirical analysis is carried out, and the causality relationship between corn price and farmers' household management income is studied by Granger causality test, and the impact of corn price on farmers' household management income is analyzed by impulse response function. The fourth chapter, after the empirical analysis, carries on the questionnaire investigation, and simulates and calculates the farmer family management income after the corn price drops in Jilin Province, and analyzes the corn price decline to the farmer household management income influence degree. The fifth chapter, according to the above research conclusion, puts forward the corresponding countermeasure suggestion.
【学位授予单位】：吉林农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.7;F323.8
[Abstract]:Jilin Province is an important grain production area in China, and has made great achievements in increasing grain production and farmers' income. As a major corn planting province, Jilin Province produced 28.057 million tons of corn in 2015, accounting for 77 percent of the province's total grain yield. In 2015, the average disposable income of farmers in Jilin Province was 11163 yuan per person, of which 6598 yuan was for agriculture. It accounts for 59.11% of the per capita disposable income of farmers, and planting corn has become the main source of income for farmers in Jilin Province. Since 2008, China began to implement the temporary corn storage price policy, farmers enjoy the benefits of corn temporary storage price policy, plus the policy has no worry about the market, corn growing enthusiasm is unprecedented; In addition to increasing the production costs of downstream enterprises, the temporary corn storage policy also distorts the normal supply and demand relationship and market competitiveness in China's corn market and forms a "reverse" phenomenon in the supply and demand market. On the one hand, it causes a backlog of stocks. On the other hand, a large number of corn imports. In order to address the negative effects of the temporary storage price of corn, China has decided in 2016 to change the temporary storage policy of corn to a policy of supplemental separation to allow corn prices to return to market prices. Market pricing will lead to the decline of corn price to a certain extent. How to ensure the decline of corn price while stabilizing the income of corn farmers is the difficult point of corn price reform. Under the background of corn storage policy reform, it is of great practical significance to re-examine and study the long-term interactive relationship between corn price change and farmers' household management income in Jilin Province. This paper firstly selects the macroscopic data of maize price and farmers' household income from 1982 to 2015, and makes an empirical analysis by means of unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test and impulse response function. Then, the household management income of farmers after the corn price drops is calculated, and the influence degree of corn price change on farmers' household management income in Jilin Province is analyzed. It mainly includes the following five parts: the first chapter explains the research background and significance of this paper, then combs and comments the domestic and foreign research literature, and finally clarifies the research ideas and methods of this paper. Research innovation and deficiency. The second chapter analyzes the characteristics of corn price and farmers' household income in Jilin Province. This paper mainly studies the historical trend and influencing factors of corn price and farmers' household income in Jilin Province. In the third chapter, empirical analysis is carried out, and the causality relationship between corn price and farmers' household management income is studied by Granger causality test, and the impact of corn price on farmers' household management income is analyzed by impulse response function. The fourth chapter, after the empirical analysis, carries on the questionnaire investigation, and simulates and calculates the farmer family management income after the corn price drops in Jilin Province, and analyzes the corn price decline to the farmer household management income influence degree. The fifth chapter, according to the above research conclusion, puts forward the corresponding countermeasure suggestion.
【学位授予单位】：吉林农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.7;F323.8
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