温江区土地利用变化及驱动力研究

发布时间：2018-09-11 19:16

【摘要】：温江区位于成都市主城区边缘,当前土地利用率较高,境内已基本无后备土地资源,土地利用类型转变只能通过内部结构调整和指标流转来实现。分析温江区现阶段的土地利用变化情况和驱动力,并对其将来5年中土地面积改变趋势进行预测,对于强化土地利用管理,编制土地利用规划具有现实参考意义。本研究从数量、程度、结构角度描述性的分析了温江区最近11年来土地利用状况,运用DPS软件对其进行灰色GM(1,1)模型预测,得到温江区2015-2020年的土地利用改变态势。最后结合该区2003-2013年的社会经济发展相关数据,采用SPSS软件对主成分开展研究,分析得到了该区驱动土地利用变化的主要因素。主要研究结论如下：(1)分析温江区土地利用现状发现,当前阶段耕地和城镇村及工矿建设用地是主导,成份组成较为单一；利用率较高,后备资源较少；利用区域差异显著。(2)对土地利用数量变化的单一动态度分析研究表明,温江建设用地增加与农业用地和未利用地减少相并存；对温江2003-2013年的土地利用水平的综合指数研究表明,该区土地利用水平比较高,其内部各街道和镇也反映出显著的差别；运用灰色GM(1,1)模型对温江区未来5年土地利用演变状况的预测表明,按照当前发展趋势,农业和未利用地将不断缩减,建设用地将不断增多,其中耕地缩减量最多,而城镇村及工矿用地扩充量则最多。(3)选取19个社会和经济变量与土地利用的不同类型进行相关性分析,再采用主成分分析法对温江区土地利用演变的社会经济驱动力进行分析研究,发现反映经济发展和人口增长等因子的第一主成分以及反映产业结构调整的第二主成分对温江区土地利用演变具有主要驱动作用。由对土地利用变化的影响力来看,第一主成分基本呈上升态势,而第二主成分的影响力呈“U”型特征变化。(4)该区的土地利用结构已经逐渐趋近于合理和稳定,要想满足社会经济发展对建设用地的需要,在土地利用上必须走出一条内涵挖潜、外延扩张与异地置换相互结合的“开源节流”路子,同时加强管理。
[Abstract]:Wenjiang District is located at the edge of the main urban area of Chengdu City. At present, the land use rate is high, and there is no reserve land resources in the territory. The transformation of land use types can only be realized through internal structural adjustment and index circulation. This study analyzed the land use situation of Wenjiang District in recent 11 years from the angle of quantity, degree and structure, predicted the grey GM (1,1) model with DPS software, and got the land use change situation of Wenjiang District in 2015-2020. Finally, based on the relevant data of social and economic development in the region from 2003 to 2013, the principal components were analyzed by SPSS software, and the main factors driving land use change were obtained. The results show that the increase of construction land in Wenjiang coexists with the decrease of agricultural land and unused land, and the comprehensive index of land use level in Wenjiang from 2003 to 2013 shows that there are significant differences in land use between regions. The level of land use in the area is relatively high, and the streets and towns in the area also reflect significant differences. The grey GM (1,1) model is used to predict the land use evolution in Wenjiang District in the next five years. The results show that according to the current development trend, the agricultural and unused land will be reduced continuously, and the construction land will be increased continuously, among which the cultivated land will be reduced most, while the urban land will be reduced most. (3) Selecting 19 social and economic variables and different types of land use for correlation analysis, and then using the principal component analysis method to analyze the social and economic driving forces of land use evolution in Wenjiang District, we found that the first principal component of factors reflecting economic development and population growth and so on. The second principal component which reflects the adjustment of industrial structure plays a major driving role in the land use evolution in Wenjiang District. The first principal component shows an upward trend, while the second principal component shows a U-shaped change. (4) The land use structure in Wenjiang District has gradually approached a reasonable and stable trend. In order to meet the needs of social and economic development for construction land, we must find a way to tap the potential of the connotation of land use, and to combine the extension expansion with the displacement of other places.
【学位授予单位】：四川农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F301.2

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