中国县域粮食产量时空演变及影响因素变化分析

发布时间：2018-10-10 06:21

【摘要】：民以食为天,农以粮为要。粮食生产和布局问题是关系到国家经济发展、社会稳定的重要因素。本文在前人的研究基础之上,引入农业区划的概念,以2000-2014年中国县级粮食产量数据和社会经济指标数据为基础,分析了近15年来中国粮食总产量变化特征和分区域粮食产量变化特征;在此基础上运用空间自相关方法研究了中国县域粮食生产格局空间演变状态;进而以地理探测器方法探索了全国和九大农区内影响粮食产量空间分布差异的主要因素和作用机制以及不同影响因素对粮食产量作用强度的变化。得到结论如下:(1)近15年来全国粮食生产整体呈上升趋势,2004年到2013年出现了粮食产量"十连增"现象;全国粮食产量平均年增长率为2.43%。其中,平原县粮食产量比重整体上升,到2011年达到49.57%的最高值,与2000年相比增幅达到4.63%;丘陵县粮食产量比重相对稳定,基本维持在30%左右;山区县粮食产量比重整体下滑,由2000年的25.12%下降到2014年的20.57%,2013年出现最低值19.93%,下降幅度达到5.19%。九大农区中粮食产量比重较高且对全国粮食增产贡献程度较大的农区分别为黄淮海农业区、长江中下游农业区、东北农业区和西南农业区。(2)全国粮食高产县数量明显增加,粮食生产重心逐渐向东北偏移;粮食生产分布格局仍符合胡焕庸线分布特征,但西北部粮食高产区范围有所扩大。全国粮食增产和减产区呈现明显的空间集聚状态,且集聚状态不断加强,高高集聚区逐渐向东北农业区偏移,低低集聚区逐渐向东部和南部沿海偏移,中国粮食生产的地域分工更加清晰。(3)2000年-2014年,影响全国范围内粮食产量分布的主要因素由人口和第一产业增加值转变为了耕地面积和农业机械总动力;不同因素对粮食产量空间分布的作用机制不同;两两指标对粮食产量分布的作用强度大于单个指标对粮食产量分布的影响。另外,农区内部影响粮食产量区域差异的主要因素也发生了较大变化,且不同农区之间影响粮食产量区域差异的主要因素不同,作用机制也不同;但整体上,耕地面积和农业机械总动力对粮食产量空间分异性的作用强度越来越大,人口和第一产业增加值对粮食产量空间分异性的作用强度逐渐减弱。第二产业增加值和地形地貌分区不是影响粮食产量区域差异的主要因素,但不同农区之间仍有差别。
[Abstract]:The people take food as the sky, the farmer takes the grain as the need. Grain production and distribution are important factors related to national economic development and social stability. On the basis of previous studies, this paper introduces the concept of agricultural regionalization, based on the data of grain yield at county level and socio-economic index data from 2000 to 2014 in China. Based on the analysis of the variation characteristics of total grain yield and sub-regional grain yield in recent 15 years, the spatial evolution of grain production pattern in counties in China was studied by using spatial autocorrelation method. Furthermore, the main factors and mechanism affecting the spatial distribution of grain yield in China and Nine Agricultural regions were explored by means of geographical detector method, and the effects of different factors on the intensity of grain yield were also studied. The conclusions are as follows: (1) in the past 15 years, the total grain production in China has been on the rise, and the grain production has increased from 2004 to 2013, and the average annual growth rate of the national grain production is 2.43%. Among them, the proportion of grain production in Pingyuan County as a whole increased, reaching the highest value of 49.57% by 2011, an increase of 4.63% compared with 2000; the proportion of grain production in hilly counties was relatively stable, basically maintained at about 30%; and the proportion of grain production in mountainous counties dropped overall. From 25.12% in 2000 to 20.57% in 2014, the lowest value was 19.93% in 2013, a drop of 5.19%. Among the nine major agricultural areas, the agricultural areas with a higher proportion of grain yield and greater contribution to the national grain yield increase are the Huang-Huai-Hai agricultural region, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River agricultural region, the northeast agricultural region and the southwest agricultural region. (2) the number of high-yielding grain counties in the whole country has increased significantly. The distribution pattern of grain production still accords with Hu Huanyong line distribution, but the area of high grain production in northwest China is enlarged. China's grain production and production reduction areas show an obvious spatial agglomeration, and the agglomeration state is constantly strengthened. The high agglomeration area gradually shifts to the northeast agricultural region, and the low and low concentration area gradually shifts to the eastern and southern coastal areas. The regional division of grain production in China is more clear. (3) from 2000 to 2014, the main factors affecting the distribution of grain production in the whole country have changed from the population and the added value of the primary industry to the cultivated land area and the total power of agricultural machinery; The effect of different factors on the spatial distribution of grain yield was different, and the effect intensity of two indexes on grain yield distribution was greater than that of single index on the distribution of grain yield. In addition, the main factors affecting the regional difference of grain yield have also changed greatly, and the main factors affecting the regional difference of grain yield among different agricultural areas are different, and the mechanism of action is also different; but on the whole, The effect of cultivated land area and total power of agricultural machinery on spatial differentiation of grain yield is more and more intense, while that of population and primary industry on spatial differentiation of grain yield is gradually weakened. The value added of the secondary industry and the terrain and geomorphology zoning were not the main factors affecting the regional difference of grain yield, but there were still differences among the different agricultural areas.
【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F326.11

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