基于前景理论的东北三省农户种养行为决策研究
发布时间：2018-10-15 12:45
【摘要】：农户种养决策行为是种植业和畜牧业调整的微观基础,对于地区农业产业均衡至关重要,对于提高农民收入水平来讲意义重大,因此提出通俗易懂的标准使得农民能够自主地、科学地进行种养决策,可以有效促进农民增收,改善区域内农民收入水平偏低的现状。笔者基于前景理论建立农户风险决策模型,给出了农户种养行为选择的具体标准,避免了以往研究单纯分析影响因素的缺陷;通过对个体土地规模、劳动力数量、成本和收入等因素的分析,构建决策矩阵,计算综合前景值,得出不同因素水平的农户进行种养行为调整的适宜程度的顺序关系;最后通过算例,给出不同因素水平下,农户相对最优的决策方案,为政府引导农民进行种养选择、优化农业产业布局提供依据。
[Abstract]:Farmers' planting and raising decision-making behavior is the micro basis for the adjustment of planting and animal husbandry, which is very important to the balance of regional agricultural industry and to the improvement of farmers' income level. Therefore, it is very important to put forward easy-to-understand standards to enable farmers to be autonomous. Scientific planting and raising decision can effectively promote farmers' income increase and improve the situation of low income level of farmers in the region. Based on the prospect theory, the author establishes the risk decision model of farmers, gives the specific criteria of farmers' breeding and raising behavior, and avoids the defects of the previous research on simply analyzing the influencing factors, through the analysis of the scale of individual land, the quantity of labor force, and so on. By analyzing the factors such as cost and income, constructing the decision matrix and calculating the comprehensive foreground value, we can get the order relation of the appropriate degree of farmers' breeding and raising behavior adjustment with different factor levels. The relative optimal decision scheme for farmers provides the basis for the government to guide farmers to choose the planting and raising and to optimize the distribution of agricultural industry.
【作者单位】： 东北农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“基于粮食安全的东北地区养殖业与粮食生产良性竞协发展机制研究”(71173035) 中国博士后基金项目(2013M540267)
【分类号】：F327
本文编号：2272593
[Abstract]:Farmers' planting and raising decision-making behavior is the micro basis for the adjustment of planting and animal husbandry, which is very important to the balance of regional agricultural industry and to the improvement of farmers' income level. Therefore, it is very important to put forward easy-to-understand standards to enable farmers to be autonomous. Scientific planting and raising decision can effectively promote farmers' income increase and improve the situation of low income level of farmers in the region. Based on the prospect theory, the author establishes the risk decision model of farmers, gives the specific criteria of farmers' breeding and raising behavior, and avoids the defects of the previous research on simply analyzing the influencing factors, through the analysis of the scale of individual land, the quantity of labor force, and so on. By analyzing the factors such as cost and income, constructing the decision matrix and calculating the comprehensive foreground value, we can get the order relation of the appropriate degree of farmers' breeding and raising behavior adjustment with different factor levels. The relative optimal decision scheme for farmers provides the basis for the government to guide farmers to choose the planting and raising and to optimize the distribution of agricultural industry.
【作者单位】： 东北农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“基于粮食安全的东北地区养殖业与粮食生产良性竞协发展机制研究”(71173035) 中国博士后基金项目(2013M540267)
【分类号】：F327
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