北京市海淀区花园中心产品结构研究

发布时间：2018-10-23 08:20

【摘要】：随着美丽海淀的提出,海淀区花卉产业经营实体也看到了自己的发展方向,正朝着产品更丰富、服务更完善的专业性花园中心经营模式发展,以求在激烈竞争环境中站稳脚跟。而人们通过花园中心提供的产品和服务也意识到追求绿色环境可以从家庭这个小单元开始。本文基于这个背景,通过总结国外成熟花园中心的发展模式和经营经验,为建设适合我国经济发展的花园中心提供借鉴。花园中心作为花卉园艺产业经营实体中的一种现代经营模式,本文通过重现我国花卉园艺产业的发展历程以及北京市的花卉园艺产业的发展现状,以让读者更深入的了解海淀区花园中心发展的背景,并为建设海淀区花园中心打下现实基础。本文利用BP人工神经网络和灰色预测法,对北京市花卉产值做了预测,得到了模拟精度较高的结果,特别是BP人工神经网络预测的平均相对误差只有0.28%,为北京市乃至各地区花卉园艺产业提供了一个比较精准的预测方法。由于海淀区搜集到统计数据过少,只能根据北京市的预测结果对海淀区2014-2020年花卉产业的发展趋势做一个大约的估计,虽不能作为专业借鉴,但有一定的参考价值。未来几年,虽然我国经济出现新常态,可能出现缓慢平稳增长,但根据本文的预测结果,海淀区花卉园艺产业的发展速度不会受到影响,发展还将处于上升阶段。其中其产业经营模式也将以花园中心经营模式为主。花园中心的主营业务是销售与花卉园艺相关的各种产品,研究海淀区花园中心的产品结构是本文的目的和核心。为了在总结国外花园中心发展经验和了解海淀区花卉园艺产业发展背景和趋势的基础上,更好地研究海淀区花园中心的产品结构,本研究在海淀区的不同街道和乡镇随机调查和收集了340个有效样本,并对收集到的的340个样本数据进行了深入的定性和定量分析。利用Logistic回归模型,分析出了对不同种类花卉园艺产品影响显著的各个因素。结合成熟花园中心的经验和分析结果,研究出适合海淀区花园中心的产品结构,并对此提出了可行性对策建议。
[Abstract]:With the development of the beautiful Haidian District, the flower industry management entity in Haidian District has also seen its own development direction, and is developing towards the professional garden center management mode with richer products and more perfect service, in order to stand firm in the fierce competition environment. The products and services provided through the garden center also realize that the pursuit of a green environment can begin with a small unit of the family. Based on this background, this paper summarizes the development mode and management experience of foreign mature garden centers, and provides reference for the construction of garden centers suitable for our country's economic development. Garden Center is a modern management model of flower horticulture industry. This paper reproduces the development course of flower horticultural industry in China and the present situation of flower horticulture industry in Beijing. In order to let readers understand the background of Haidian District Garden Center, and lay a realistic foundation for the construction of Haidian District Garden Center. In this paper, BP artificial neural network and grey forecasting method are used to predict the output value of flowers in Beijing, and the result of high precision simulation is obtained. Especially, the average relative error of BP artificial neural network is only 0.28, which provides a more accurate prediction method for flower horticultural industry in Beijing and other regions. Due to the lack of statistical data collected in Haidian District, we can only make an approximate estimate of the trend of flower industry development in Haidian District from 2014 to 2020 according to the forecast results of Beijing. Although it can not be used as a reference for professional reference, it has certain reference value. In the next few years, although the economy of our country appears the new normal, may appear the slow steady growth, but according to the forecast result of this article, the development speed of the flower horticultural industry in Haidian district will not be affected, the development will still be in the rising stage. Among them, its industrial management model will also be based on the garden center business model. The main business of garden center is to sell all kinds of products related to flower gardening. It is the purpose and core of this paper to study the product structure of garden center in Haidian district. In order to study the product structure of garden center in Haidian District better on the basis of summing up the experience of foreign garden center development and understanding the background and trend of flower horticultural industry development in Haidian District, In this study, 340 valid samples were collected in different streets and towns in Haidian District, and 340 samples were collected qualitatively and quantitatively. Logistic regression model was used to analyze the factors that had significant influence on different kinds of horticultural products. Based on the experience and analysis results of the mature garden center, the product structure suitable for Haidian garden center is studied, and the feasible countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：北京林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F326.13;TP183

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