我国马铃薯价格波动规律研究--基于X-12和H-P滤波法的实证分析

发布时间：2018-11-07 09:18

【摘要】：马铃薯作为重要的农产品之一,其价格波动受多种因素影响。本文采用X-12模型和H-P滤波法,选取2005年1月至2015年12月全国农产品批发市场价格的月度数据,将其波动分解为季节性、周期性、趋势性和不规则性波动4种类型。结果显示,马铃薯生产的季节性是价格季节性波动的主要原因;成本上升及消费量增加推动价格趋势性上涨但总体趋于平缓;马铃薯价格呈明显的周期性波动,平均周期约为47个月;天气变化、市场突发事件等是价格不规则性波动的主要影响因素。对此,需扎实推进马铃薯生产稳定发展、健全全产业链信息分析预警机制、完善马铃薯价格保险制度,并推进马铃薯一二三产业融合发展,确保薯农收益稳定增长和市场供需基本平衡,促进市场平稳运行。
[Abstract]:Potato as one of the important agricultural products, its price fluctuation is affected by many factors. By using X-12 model and H-P filtering method, the monthly data of the wholesale market price of agricultural products in China from January 2005 to December 2015 are selected, and the fluctuation is divided into four types: seasonal, periodic, trend and irregular. The results show that seasonality of potato production is the main reason for seasonal price fluctuation, and the rising cost and consumption increase promote the price trend but generally tend to level off. The average period of potato price is about 47 months, and the weather change and market emergency are the main influencing factors of irregular price fluctuation. In view of this, it is necessary to firmly promote the steady development of potato production, improve the information analysis and early warning mechanism of the whole industrial chain, perfect the potato price insurance system, and promote the integration of the potato industry, two, and three industries. To ensure steady growth of income of potato farmers and the basic balance of market supply and demand, to promote the smooth operation of the market.
【作者单位】：中国农业科学院农业信息研究所农业部农业信息服务技术重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71573263) 农业部蔬菜全产业链信息分析预警研究专项,中国农业科学院创新工程项目(CAASASTIP-2016-AII)
【分类号】：F323.7

【参考文献】