宁化县农业投入与农业产出耦合发展研究
发布时间：2018-11-14 09:18
【摘要】：自古以来农业发展都是我国民生的关注热点,农业作为工业和服务业的基础,关系到我国社会主义和谐社会的发展。目前,我国农业发展最重要的问题之一是农业资源投入与产出效率的问题,因此研究如何提高农业资源的利用效率以及投入与产出的耦合关系,尽可能使资源转化为收益的效率最大化,是当前中国农业发展亟需探讨和解决的问题之一。本文以福建省宁化县为研究区域,通过建立农业投入水平和农业产出水平评价体系,分析宁化县2001～2012年农业投入水平和农业产出水平的变化,探讨影响农业投入与产出发生变化的主要因素,并对2012年宁化县16个乡镇的农业投入与农业产出水平进行了对比分析；基于协调度模型,分析宁化县2001～2012年农业投入与农业产出之间的协调状况,以及2012年各乡镇农业投入与农业产出协调性的空间差异。根据灰色系统理论,运用GM(1,1)预测模型及其优化模型对未来几年宁化县粮食作物和经济作物的产量进行预测。并针对宁化县农业发展中存在的问题,提出了稳定和发展农业生产的建议和措施。2001-2012年宁化县农业投入水平与农业产出水平总体呈上升趋势,农业投入水平从2001年的0.6713逐渐上升至2012年的0.9821,农业产出水平从2001年的0.4653逐年上升至2012年的0.9889。在2001年、2007年和2012年3个年份中,宁化县16个乡镇农业投入和农业产出水平差异变化趋势基本保持一致；2012年,宁化县16个乡镇农业投入与产出水平差异较大,其中农业投入水平以安远乡(0.9273)为最高,治平乡(0.2029)为最低；农业产出水平以湖村镇(0.8034)为最高,河龙乡(0.2866)为最低。从2001年至2012年,宁化县农业投入和农业产出综合水平显著提高,协调发展态势良好,总体呈上升趋势；从协调发展度类型上看,从2001～2011年的农业产出滞后型转变为2012年的农业投入滞后型。在2001年、2007年和2012年3个年份中,宁化县16个乡镇农业投入与农业产出协调发展状况变化不大；2001年和2007年2年的协调状况基本一致；与2001年和2007年相比,2012年的综合发展水平有一定的提高,并且协调度水平趋于相近,均在0.9～1.0之间。三年中各乡镇的协调等级主要包括初级协调、中级协调、良好协调和优质协调四大类。2012年,宁化县各乡镇农业协调度都较高,在0.9以上。但综合发展水平和协调发展度有很大差异,安远乡得分最高,分别为0.8265和0.8956；治平乡得分最低,分别为0.2535和0.4834,各乡镇中大部分乡镇协调发展度类型属于初级协调类和勉强协调类,没有优质协调类。通过GM(1,1)预测模型和新陈代谢GM(1,1)预测模型预测2013～2020年宁化县粮食产量总体呈线性下降趋势,下降幅度为8.00%；经济作物总产量总体呈线性上升趋势,上升幅度较大,为22.23%。
[Abstract]:Since ancient times, agricultural development has been the focus of attention of people's livelihood in China. As the foundation of industry and service industry, agriculture is related to the development of harmonious socialist society in China. At present, one of the most important problems in agricultural development in China is the efficiency of input and output of agricultural resources, so how to improve the utilization efficiency of agricultural resources and the coupling relationship between input and output are studied. To maximize the efficiency of transforming resources into income is one of the problems that need to be discussed and solved in the current agricultural development in China. This paper takes Ninghua County, Fujian Province as the research area, through establishing the evaluation system of agricultural input level and agricultural output level, analyzes the change of agricultural input level and agricultural output level in Ninghua County from 2001 to 2012. The main factors influencing the change of agricultural input and output were discussed, and the level of agricultural input and output in 16 villages and towns in Ninghua County in 2012 were compared and analyzed. Based on the coordination degree model, this paper analyzes the coordination situation between agricultural input and agricultural output in Ninghua County from 2001 to 2012, and the spatial differences between agricultural input and agricultural output in different villages and towns in 2012. According to the grey system theory, the yield of grain crops and cash crops in Ninghua County in the next few years is predicted by using GM (1 ~ 1) prediction model and its optimization model. In view of the problems existing in the agricultural development of Ninghua County, the suggestions and measures for stabilizing and developing agricultural production are put forward. The agricultural input level and agricultural output level of Ninghua County in 2001-2012 are on the whole increasing. The level of agricultural input gradually increased from 0.6713 in 2001 to 0.9821 in 2012, and the level of agricultural output rose year by year from 0.4653 in 2001 to 0.9889 in 2012. In 2001, 2007 and 2012, the variation trend of agricultural input and agricultural output level in 16 villages and towns in Ninghua County was basically the same. In 2012, the agricultural input and output level of 16 villages and towns in Ninghua County were quite different. The agricultural input level was the highest in Anyuan Township (0.9273) and the lowest in Zhiping Township (0.2029). The agricultural output level was the highest in Hucun Town (0.8034) and the lowest in Helong Township (0.2866). From 2001 to 2012, the comprehensive level of agricultural input and agricultural output in Ninghua County increased significantly, the coordinated development situation was good, and the overall trend was on the rise. From the point of view of the degree of coordinated development, the lagging type of agricultural output changed from 2001 to 2011 to the lagging type of agricultural input in 2012. In 2001, 2007 and 2012, the coordinated development of agricultural input and output in 16 villages and towns in Ninghua County changed little, and the coordination status in 2001 and 2007 was basically the same. Compared with 2001 and 2007, the level of comprehensive development in 2012 increased to a certain extent, and the degree of coordination tended to be similar, ranging from 0.9 to 1.0. In three years, the coordination level of villages and towns mainly includes four categories: primary coordination, intermediate coordination, good coordination and high quality coordination. In 2012, the level of agricultural coordination in villages and towns in Ninghua County was higher than 0.9. But the comprehensive development level and the coordinated development degree have the very big difference, the Anyuan township score is the highest, is 0.8265 and 0.8956 respectively; The scores of leveling township were 0.2535 and 0.4834 respectively. Most of the township coordinated development degree types belonged to the primary coordination type and the barely coordinated type but there was no quality coordination class. The grain yield in Ninghua County from 2013 to 2020 was predicted by GM (1K1) model and metabolic GM (1K1) model. The grain yield in Ninghua County decreased linearly from 2013 to 2020, with a decrease of 8.00%. The total yield of cash crops showed a linear upward trend, which was 22.23%.
【学位授予单位】：福建师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F327
本文编号：2330770
[Abstract]:Since ancient times, agricultural development has been the focus of attention of people's livelihood in China. As the foundation of industry and service industry, agriculture is related to the development of harmonious socialist society in China. At present, one of the most important problems in agricultural development in China is the efficiency of input and output of agricultural resources, so how to improve the utilization efficiency of agricultural resources and the coupling relationship between input and output are studied. To maximize the efficiency of transforming resources into income is one of the problems that need to be discussed and solved in the current agricultural development in China. This paper takes Ninghua County, Fujian Province as the research area, through establishing the evaluation system of agricultural input level and agricultural output level, analyzes the change of agricultural input level and agricultural output level in Ninghua County from 2001 to 2012. The main factors influencing the change of agricultural input and output were discussed, and the level of agricultural input and output in 16 villages and towns in Ninghua County in 2012 were compared and analyzed. Based on the coordination degree model, this paper analyzes the coordination situation between agricultural input and agricultural output in Ninghua County from 2001 to 2012, and the spatial differences between agricultural input and agricultural output in different villages and towns in 2012. According to the grey system theory, the yield of grain crops and cash crops in Ninghua County in the next few years is predicted by using GM (1 ~ 1) prediction model and its optimization model. In view of the problems existing in the agricultural development of Ninghua County, the suggestions and measures for stabilizing and developing agricultural production are put forward. The agricultural input level and agricultural output level of Ninghua County in 2001-2012 are on the whole increasing. The level of agricultural input gradually increased from 0.6713 in 2001 to 0.9821 in 2012, and the level of agricultural output rose year by year from 0.4653 in 2001 to 0.9889 in 2012. In 2001, 2007 and 2012, the variation trend of agricultural input and agricultural output level in 16 villages and towns in Ninghua County was basically the same. In 2012, the agricultural input and output level of 16 villages and towns in Ninghua County were quite different. The agricultural input level was the highest in Anyuan Township (0.9273) and the lowest in Zhiping Township (0.2029). The agricultural output level was the highest in Hucun Town (0.8034) and the lowest in Helong Township (0.2866). From 2001 to 2012, the comprehensive level of agricultural input and agricultural output in Ninghua County increased significantly, the coordinated development situation was good, and the overall trend was on the rise. From the point of view of the degree of coordinated development, the lagging type of agricultural output changed from 2001 to 2011 to the lagging type of agricultural input in 2012. In 2001, 2007 and 2012, the coordinated development of agricultural input and output in 16 villages and towns in Ninghua County changed little, and the coordination status in 2001 and 2007 was basically the same. Compared with 2001 and 2007, the level of comprehensive development in 2012 increased to a certain extent, and the degree of coordination tended to be similar, ranging from 0.9 to 1.0. In three years, the coordination level of villages and towns mainly includes four categories: primary coordination, intermediate coordination, good coordination and high quality coordination. In 2012, the level of agricultural coordination in villages and towns in Ninghua County was higher than 0.9. But the comprehensive development level and the coordinated development degree have the very big difference, the Anyuan township score is the highest, is 0.8265 and 0.8956 respectively; The scores of leveling township were 0.2535 and 0.4834 respectively. Most of the township coordinated development degree types belonged to the primary coordination type and the barely coordinated type but there was no quality coordination class. The grain yield in Ninghua County from 2013 to 2020 was predicted by GM (1K1) model and metabolic GM (1K1) model. The grain yield in Ninghua County decreased linearly from 2013 to 2020, with a decrease of 8.00%. The total yield of cash crops showed a linear upward trend, which was 22.23%.
【学位授予单位】：福建师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F327
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 齐天真;;基于比较优势的区域主导产业选择——以天津市西青区农业为例[J];安徽农业科学;2011年18期
2 姜作培;把握城乡统筹发展的辩证关系[J];福建论坛(经济社会版);2003年08期
3 柳坤;申玉铭;张旺;;1992年以来我国农业的投入产出变化研究[J];广东农业科学;2012年06期
4 李金峰;时书霞;;级差地租影响下天水市果蔬产业空间区位选择——基于杜能农业区位论的实证分析[J];甘肃科技;2014年10期
5 刘松;;区域农业竞争优势的培植与发展研究综述[J];湖北农业科学;2012年04期
6 姬亚岚;;多功能农业的产生背景、研究概况与借鉴意义[J];经济社会体制比较;2009年04期
7 丁谦;曾庆均;;城乡统筹、农业现代化与农业的内生增长[J];经济问题;2010年04期
8 韩璐;余华银;宋马林;;皖江城市带农业投入产出效率升级[J];江西农业大学学报(社会科学版);2011年04期
9 蒋和平，，温思美;建立农业科技投入新机制的构想[J];科学管理研究;1996年02期
10 赵维清;试论农业基础设施多渠道投入的投融资机制[J];黑龙江社会科学;2002年05期
相关博士学位论文 前1条
1 岳强;农业机械化系统灰色分析及中国式可持续农机教育体系研究[D];吉林大学;2009年
本文编号：2330770
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/jingjilunwen/nongyejingjilunwen/2330770.html
