乌克兰近十年耕地多尺度时空动态变化分析

发布时间：2018-12-21 17:07

【摘要】：二十一世纪以来,随着我国人口和经济的快速发展虽然促进了综合国力的不断增强,但却导致耕地人均占有量逐年持续负增长的态势,严重影响了耕地的后备资源供给。因此,保障我国粮食安全成为了广大学者研究的主要问题。乌克兰向来被称为“欧洲粮仓”,拥有世界面积第一大的黑土地。在苏联解体后,乌克兰农业曾经一度陷于萧条之中。尽管近年来乌克兰农业生产形式已有所恢复,但仍面临资金缺乏、技术老化等问题。近几年,中国与乌克兰在农业投资方面合作频繁,中国的农业投资可以为乌克兰提供必要的财政和技术援助,而乌克兰可以为解决我国耕地后备资源不足的问题提供一定的支持。本文以乌克兰耕地作为研究对象,基于2000年、2010年两期全球30m地表覆盖遥感制图成果,利用从国家统计局和乌克兰统计局网上获取的统计数据,从国家、州级、格网三个不同尺度对乌克兰的土地利用现状及耕地变化趋势进行了全方位的分析,并利用马尔可夫模型对未来几年的土地利用情况进行了预测。具体内容分为以下部分：第一部分为研究背景及基础理论概述。这部分主要从研究方法、研究尺度、驱动力、地表覆盖数据集等四个角度介绍了国内外相关领域的研究进展。同时,在本部分的最后简单阐述了本文的研究内容、采用的基本方法和总体技术路线等。第二部分为研究区概况的介绍和数据的处理工作。这部分主要介绍了乌克兰的自然、社会概况,概略的探讨了全球30m地表覆盖遥感制图过程,并对其中耕地的提取标准和方法进行了较为详细分析研究。第三部分为土地利用变化分析及预测研究。本文首次从国家尺度、州级尺度、格网尺度三个不同的尺度层面,采用耕地利用变化的幅度、耕地利用变化动态度、耕地相对变化率、耕地变化速率、耕地垦殖率、耕地利用程度的变化和耕地重心迁移等模型,分别从纵向和横向分析了乌克兰的耕地动态变化规律,并采用土地利用类型转化模型,对乌克兰各地类之间相互转化的时空动态变化规律进行了分析,从而全面把握乌克兰耕地利用变化规律。第四部分研究了引起耕地变化的驱动力因子。考虑资料的可获取性,本文从国家尺度、州级尺度两个不同的尺度层面,分别对影响乌克兰耕地利用变化的自然和社会经济因子进行定性分析,其中国家尺度选取了12个驱动因子、州级尺度选取了7个驱动因子进行主成分分析,通过分析得出影响乌克兰耕地利用变化的主要驱动力以及研究期间驱动力综合变化。最后,应用马尔可夫模型预测研究区土地未来的发展走向,在一定程度上掌握乌克兰耕地利用变化规律,以便于制定相应的对策。
[Abstract]:Since the 21 century, with the rapid development of population and economy in our country, although the comprehensive national strength has been continuously enhanced, it has led to the continuous negative growth of the per capita share of cultivated land year by year, which has seriously affected the supply of the reserve resources of cultivated land. Therefore, the protection of food security in China has become the main problem of the majority of scholars. Ukraine has long been known as the "European granary", with the world's largest black land area. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukrainian agriculture was once in a depression. Although Ukraine's agricultural production has recovered in recent years, it still faces problems such as lack of funds and aging technology. In recent years, cooperation between China and Ukraine in agricultural investment has been frequent. China's agricultural investment can provide Ukraine with the necessary financial and technical assistance. Ukraine can provide some support to solve the shortage of cultivated land reserve resources. This paper takes the farmland of Ukraine as the research object, based on the results of the global 30 m land cover remote sensing mapping in 2000 and 2010, using the statistical data obtained from the national statistical office and the Ukrainian statistical office online, from the national, state level, The present situation of land use and the trend of cultivated land change in Ukraine are analyzed comprehensively by three different scales of grid and the land use in the coming years is forecasted by using Markov model. Specific content is divided into the following parts: the first part is the research background and basic theory overview. This part mainly introduces the research progress in the related fields at home and abroad from four angles: research method, research scale, driving force, surface cover data set and so on. At the end of this part, the research contents, basic methods and overall technical route are briefly described. The second part is the introduction of the research area and the data processing. This part mainly introduces the natural and social situation of Ukraine, discusses the process of remote sensing mapping of 30m land cover in the world, and makes a detailed analysis and study on the standard and method of extraction of cultivated land. The third part is land use change analysis and forecast research. In this paper, for the first time, from three different scale levels of national scale, state scale, grid scale, the extent of cultivated land use change, the dynamic degree of cultivated land use change, the relative change rate of cultivated land, the rate of change of cultivated land, the rate of cultivated land reclamation, Based on the models of cultivated land use degree change and cultivated land barycenter migration, this paper analyzes the dynamic change law of farmland in Ukraine from the vertical and horizontal aspects, and adopts the land use type transformation model. This paper analyzes the temporal and spatial dynamic change law of the transformation of different classes in Ukraine, so as to grasp the change law of farmland utilization in Ukraine. The fourth part studies the driving force factors that cause the change of cultivated land. Considering the availability of data, this paper makes a qualitative analysis of the natural and social economic factors that affect the change of farmland use in Ukraine from two different scale levels: national scale and cantonal scale. Among them, 12 driving factors were selected at the national scale and 7 driving factors were selected at the state scale for principal component analysis. The main driving forces affecting the change of farmland use in Ukraine and the comprehensive driving force changes during the study period were obtained. Finally, Markov model is applied to predict the future development trend of land in the study area, and to grasp the change law of farmland use in Ukraine to a certain extent, in order to make corresponding countermeasures.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F351.13

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