价格波动背景下生猪养殖决策行为影响因素研究——基于前景理论的视角
发布时间：2019-01-27 15:25
【摘要】：基于行为经济学前景理论,本文运用河南养殖主体调研数据和二元Logistic模型,研究了生猪价格波动背景下养殖主体决策行为的影响因素。结果表明:1)养殖主体在内部和外部因素的共同约束下进行"有限理性决策",在盈利前景和亏损前景下其决策行为的影响因素不同,具有非对称特征;2)在盈利前景下,养猪专业化程度对养殖决策行为有负向影响,政策满意度有正向影响;3)在亏损前景下,经济状况、是否参加生猪养殖保险、获取生猪价格信息难易程度对养殖决策行为有负向影响,风险偏好、政策满意度有正向影响。平抑"猪周期",关键在于养殖主体在价格波动背景下决策行为的选择,因此,提升养猪组织化程度、开发多元化生猪养殖保险产品、完善生猪交易信息化服务平台、调整生猪产业政策体系,有助于提高养殖主体决策水平,促进生猪产业健康发展。
[Abstract]:Based on the prospect theory of behavioral economics, this paper studied the influencing factors of the decision-making behavior of breeding agents under the background of hog price fluctuation by using the survey data of Henan breeding agents and the dual Logistic model. The results showed that: 1) under the constraints of internal and external factors, the main body of aquaculture made a "limited rational decision". Under the prospect of profit and loss, the influencing factors of decision-making behavior were different and had asymmetric characteristics. 2) under the prospect of profit, the degree of pig specialization has a negative effect on the decision-making behavior, and the policy satisfaction has a positive effect; 3) under the prospect of loss, the economic situation, whether or not to participate in pig breeding insurance, and the difficulty of obtaining the price information of live pig have a negative influence on the decision-making behavior of breeding, and risk preference and policy satisfaction have a positive effect. In order to stabilize the "pig cycle", the key lies in the selection of the decision-making behavior of the main body in the background of price fluctuation. Therefore, to promote the organization of pig raising, to develop diversified pig breeding insurance products, and to improve the information service platform for pig trading. Adjusting the policy system of pig industry is helpful to improve the decision-making level and promote the healthy development of pig industry.
【作者单位】： 华中农业大学经济管理学院;蚌埠学院经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71673103) 安徽省教育厅人文社会科学重点项目(SK2016A0584)~~
【分类号】：F323.7;F326.3
本文编号：2416397
[Abstract]:Based on the prospect theory of behavioral economics, this paper studied the influencing factors of the decision-making behavior of breeding agents under the background of hog price fluctuation by using the survey data of Henan breeding agents and the dual Logistic model. The results showed that: 1) under the constraints of internal and external factors, the main body of aquaculture made a "limited rational decision". Under the prospect of profit and loss, the influencing factors of decision-making behavior were different and had asymmetric characteristics. 2) under the prospect of profit, the degree of pig specialization has a negative effect on the decision-making behavior, and the policy satisfaction has a positive effect; 3) under the prospect of loss, the economic situation, whether or not to participate in pig breeding insurance, and the difficulty of obtaining the price information of live pig have a negative influence on the decision-making behavior of breeding, and risk preference and policy satisfaction have a positive effect. In order to stabilize the "pig cycle", the key lies in the selection of the decision-making behavior of the main body in the background of price fluctuation. Therefore, to promote the organization of pig raising, to develop diversified pig breeding insurance products, and to improve the information service platform for pig trading. Adjusting the policy system of pig industry is helpful to improve the decision-making level and promote the healthy development of pig industry.
【作者单位】： 华中农业大学经济管理学院;蚌埠学院经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71673103) 安徽省教育厅人文社会科学重点项目(SK2016A0584)~~
【分类号】：F323.7;F326.3
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，本文编号：2416397
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