基于SWOT模型的我国苜蓿产业发展对策研究

发布时间：2019-02-23 22:50

【摘要】：纵观全球苜蓿产业贸易,我国在苜蓿进出口贸易中处于较为严重的逆差态势,这与我国草地资源大国的优势地位存在着严重失衡。对于保障我国畜牧业发展的“牧草之王”——苜蓿,我国如果依赖国际进口,不实现优质苜蓿的大量国产化,这必然会影响到我国未来的食物安全问题。因此,对于国内苜蓿产业的区域化研究势在必行。本文通过分析全球草畜产品贸易,洞察我国苜蓿产业在国际中所处的弱势地位。进而通过运用SWOT模型分析法对我国四大地区的苜蓿产业分别进行了S(优势)、W(劣势)、O(机遇)以及T(威胁)4大方面的探讨。本文通过分析主要得出以下结论:1.我国苜蓿产业在国际贸易中处于较为严重的逆差态势,远落后于国际苜蓿强国。以2013年为例,我国苜蓿草粉及颗粒贸易的总值如下:进口3.89万t,出口0.72万t,进出口贸易呈现逆差态势,逆差值为3.17万t。据此可见我国的苜蓿缺口尤其是优质苜蓿的缺口仍要倚靠进口苜蓿来填补。无独有偶,在苜蓿产业相关的牛羊肉、牛奶产业方面,2013年的进出口贸易也是处于严重逆差态势,其中,牛肉进口10.42万t,出口0.19万t,逆差值为10.23万t;羊肉进口28.78万t,出口0.23万t,逆差值为28.55万t;牛奶进口25.42万t,出口3.20万t,逆差值为22.22万t。上述数据充分说明了我国当前的苜蓿产业国际处境同我国草地资源大国的地位严重不相匹配,草地资源存在严重浪费现象,优质牧草依赖进口的状况必须得到扭转,实现优质牧草的自给自足并对外出口。因此,大力发展我国苜蓿产业、走草地农业的大农业发展之路已迫在眉睫。2.我国苜蓿的四大生产区域(西北、华北、东北以及南方地区)中,西北和华北地区苜蓿种植面积占到全国绝大部分。以2014年为例,西北、华北地区约占全国种植总面积的91.35%,其中西北地区(66.43%),华北地区(24.92%);而东北地区及南方地区则仅约占全国种植总面积的8.65%,其中东北地区(4.94%),南方地区(3.70%)。3.综合SWOT模型分析法制定了我国4大区域苜蓿产业发展对策以及政策建议,具体如下:西北、华北主产区应继续发挥区域自然条件以及种植传统优势,加大优良苜蓿品种的研发推广力度,引进国外苜蓿产业先进技术,建立与美国相似的苜蓿质量标准体系,弥补自身科技不足的劣势,积极构建苜蓿生产企业联盟,完善服务体系;东北产区应当加大苜蓿相关政策补贴力度以及耐寒苜蓿种的研发力度,减少“退草还粮”恶性循环的出现;南方产区应加大冬闲田利用率,充分发挥本区域的市场驱动优势,加大高温高湿难题的技术攻坚力度。综上,从而推动苜蓿产业在我国的不断壮大,进而推进我国草地农业的大农业发展进程。
[Abstract]:According to the global alfalfa industry trade, China is in a serious deficit situation in the alfalfa import and export trade, which is seriously out of balance with the dominant position of the great country of grassland resources in China. For alfalfa, which is the king of forage, which guarantees the development of animal husbandry in China, if our country relies on international imports and does not realize a large number of high quality alfalfa production, this will inevitably affect the food safety in the future of our country. Therefore, it is imperative to study the regionalization of alfalfa industry in China. Based on the analysis of global trade in grass and livestock products, this paper explores the weak position of China's alfalfa industry in the world. Then, by using SWOT model analysis, the paper discusses four aspects of alfalfa industry in four regions of China: s (advantage), W (inferior), O (opportunity) and T (threat). The main conclusions are as follows: 1. China's alfalfa industry is in a serious deficit situation in international trade and lags far behind the international alfalfa powers. Taking 2013 as an example, the total value of China's alfalfa meal and grain trade is as follows: import 38900 t, export 7200 t, import and export trade deficit trend, deficit value 31700 t. Therefore, the gap of alfalfa in China, especially in high quality alfalfa, still depends on imported alfalfa. Similarly, the import and export trade of alfalfa industry related to beef, mutton and milk industry in 2013 is also in a serious deficit situation. Among them, beef import 104200 t, export 1900 t, deficit value is 102300 t; The import of mutton was 287800 t, the export was 2300 t, the deficit was 285500 t, and the import of milk was 254200 t, the export was 32000 t, the deficit was 222200 t. The above data show that the current international situation of China's alfalfa industry does not match seriously with the status of the great country of grassland resources in China, there is a serious waste of grassland resources, and the situation of high quality forage depends on imports must be reversed. Self-sufficiency and export of high-quality forage. Therefore, it is urgent to develop alfalfa industry in China and take the road of grassland agriculture. Of the four major production areas of alfalfa in China (Northwest, North, Northeast and South), the area of alfalfa cultivation in Northwest and North China accounts for most of the whole country. Taking 2014 as an example, North China accounted for 91.35% of the total planting area in China, including the Northwest region (66.43%) and North China region (24.92%). The northeast and southern regions only account for 8.65% of the total planting area in China, including northeast region (4.94%) and southern region (3.70%). Based on the SWOT model analysis, the development strategies and policy suggestions of the four major regions of China for alfalfa industry development have been formulated, as follows: in Northwest China, the main production areas of North China should continue to give play to the natural conditions of the region and the traditional advantages of planting. We should increase the R & D and popularization of good alfalfa varieties, introduce the advanced technology of foreign alfalfa industry, set up the similar alfalfa quality standard system with the United States, make up the disadvantages of their own scientific and technological deficiency, and actively build up the alliance of alfalfa production enterprises. Perfect service system; The northeast producing areas should increase the subsidy of alfalfa related policies and the research and development of alfalfa varieties in order to reduce the vicious circle of "returning grass to grain"; The southern producing area should increase the utilization rate of winter idle field, give full play to the market driving advantage of this region, and increase the technical difficulty of high temperature and high humidity. To sum up, the alfalfa industry is growing rapidly in our country, and the development process of grassland agriculture in China is further promoted.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F326.3;F324.6

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