我国粮食主销区的粮食安全问题研究——基于粮食产需平衡缺口视角

发布时间：2019-03-03 12:18

【摘要】：我国粮食主销区的粮食安全基础脆弱,影响全国粮食安全状况。测算了我国粮食主销区的粮食产需平衡缺口及各主销区的粮食缺口程度,并采用面板数据模型分析了影响主销区粮食产需平衡缺口的主要因素。研究表明:主销区粮食产需平衡缺口越来越大,但各主销区粮食缺口程度有所不同。北京和上海为极大缺口区,平均粮食产需平衡缺口率超过70%;天津和广东为较大缺口区,平均粮食产需平衡缺口率为40%~43%;浙江和福建为大缺口区;海南省为一般缺口区。粮食产量、口粮消费量、间接粮食消费量和城镇人口比例的变化对主销区粮食产需平衡缺口变化具有显著影响。提高粮食产量有利于缩小主销区粮食缺口,主销区人口增长、城镇化水平提高、主销区居民对畜禽水产品和大豆油等的间接粮食消费增加会加剧粮食缺口扩大。鉴于此,提出促进粮食主销区粮食安全的相关措施,以期为实现新形势下国家粮食安全战略提供参考。
[Abstract]:The food security foundation of our country's grain main marketing area is fragile, which affects the whole country's grain security situation. The balance gap of grain production and demand and the grain gap degree of each main marketing area in China were calculated. The main factors affecting the balance gap of grain production and demand in the main marketing area were analyzed by using panel data model. The results show that the balance gap between grain production and demand in the main marketing area is increasing, but the grain gap degree is different among the main marketing areas. In Beijing and Shanghai, the average deficit rate of grain production and demand was more than 70%, that of Tianjin and Guangdong was 40% and 43%, that of Zhejiang and Fujian was 40% and 43% respectively, and that of Zhejiang and Fujian provinces was over 70%, and that of Tianjin and Guangdong was over 70%, and that of Zhejiang and Fujian was 40% and 43%, respectively. Hainan Province is a general lack of mouth area. The changes of grain output, ration consumption, indirect grain consumption and the proportion of urban population have significant effects on the balance gap of grain production and demand in the main market area. The increase of grain output is beneficial to narrow the grain gap in the main marketing area, increase the population growth in the main marketing area, improve the urbanization level, and increase the indirect grain consumption of livestock and poultry aquatic products and soybean oil in the main marketing area, which will aggravate the increase in the grain gap. In view of this, the relevant measures to promote food security in the main grain marketing areas are put forward in order to provide reference for the realization of the national food security strategy under the new situation.
【作者单位】：中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目(14ZDA041) 中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-IAED06,ASTIP-IAED02)资助
【分类号】：F326.11

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