我国食物需求的时空演变及草地农业生产布局
发布时间：2019-04-19 21:45
【摘要】：由于我国居民食物消费结构从以植物性食物为主转变为动植物性食物并重,对粮食安全的研究也逐渐转化为对食物安全的研究。为应对新形势下的食物安全,任继周院士提出了转变传统农业结构,发展草地农业的设想。在此基础上,一些学者论证了发展草地农业的必要性,估算了发展草地农业的食物生产潜力,并在全国各地开展了草地农业的相关试验,取得较多的研究成果。但是,当前研究缺乏对草食畜产品空间需求规律的分析、对未来需求的有效预测和对草地农业发展速率的规划。为此,在前人理论和实践研究的基础上,本研究以居民的主要食物(口粮、耗粮型畜产品和草食畜产品)为研究对象,运用空间计量经济学和时间趋势预测的方法,以食物当量和农田当量为量纲,从需求的角度出发,分析我国1998年和2012年的食物需求演变、预测2020年和2025年各个省份各种食物的需求数量、并依据食物需求制定出短期内我国草地农业发展的总体布局。1.人均食物需求的省域间差异很大。口粮人均消费量呈明显的阶梯状分布,从东北向西南逐级递减,2012年趋势更为明显；耗粮型畜产品人均消费量1998年为南多北少,2012年呈现中部少南北多的规律；草食畜产品人均消费量西部高于中东部地区,在中东部地区又呈现中部少,南北多的趋势。空间相关性分析表明,三种食物人均消费量均具有显著的空间正相关性。2.预测了未来省域尺度上的食物需求。口粮人均消费量采用指数趋势预测模型,耗粮型畜产品、草食畜产品人均消费量和人口数量采用直线趋势预测模型,对31个省份,共进行了124次回归。参数估计的检验表明,绝大多数参数在p0.05的水平上显著,模型有效；对于极少数参数估计不显著的模型,采用2012年的值进行保守估计。3.制定了以需求为导向的草地农业短期生产布局。按照各省份的食物需求,计算出各省份2020年和2025年的农田当量数“红线”,并依据各省份耕地及草地资源状况,设定了2020年和2025年各省份发展草地农业的耕地、草田轮作和栽培草地的实际面积。
[Abstract]:Because of the transformation of food consumption structure from plant food to animal and plant food in China, the research on food security has been gradually transformed into food safety research. In order to deal with the food safety under the new situation, academician Ren Jizhou put forward the idea of changing the traditional agricultural structure and developing grassland agriculture. On this basis, some scholars demonstrated the necessity of developing grassland agriculture, estimated the food production potential of developing grassland agriculture, and carried out experiments on grassland agriculture all over the country, and obtained more research results. However, there is a lack of analysis on the spatial demand of herbivores and livestock products, the effective prediction of the future demand and the planning of the development rate of grassland agriculture. Therefore, on the basis of previous theoretical and practical studies, the main food (food rations, food-consuming livestock products and herbivorous livestock products) of the residents were studied in this study, and spatial econometrics and time trend prediction methods were used. Based on the dimensions of food equivalent and farmland equivalent, this paper analyzes the evolution of food demand in China in 1998 and 2012 from the perspective of demand, and forecasts the quantity of food demand in various provinces in 2020 and 2025. On the basis of food demand, the general layout of grassland agriculture development in China in the short term has been worked out. 1. The per capita demand for food varies greatly from province to province. The per capita consumption of grain-consuming animal products showed obvious step-by-step distribution, gradually decreasing from northeast to southwest, and the trend was more obvious in 2012; the per capita consumption of food-consuming livestock products in 1998 was much more than that in the north and south, and in 2012, it was less in the middle of the country than in the north; The per capita consumption of herbivorous animal products in the west was higher than that in the central and eastern regions, and showed a trend of less in the middle and more in the north and south. The spatial correlation analysis showed that the per capita consumption of the three foods had significant positive spatial correlation. 2. The food demand on the provincial scale in the future is predicted. The index trend prediction model was used to predict the per capita consumption of rations, and the linear trend prediction model was used to predict the per capita consumption and population quantity of food-consuming animal products, grass-food livestock products and food-consuming livestock products. 124 regression analyses were carried out in 31 provinces. The test of parameter estimation shows that most of the parameters are significant at p0.05 level, and the model is effective. For the model with very few parameter estimates, conservative estimation is made by using 2012 values. 3. The short-term production layout of grassland agriculture based on demand-oriented has been formulated. According to the food needs of the provinces, the "red line" of the equivalent number of farmland for the provinces in 2020 and 2025 is calculated, and the cultivated land for the development of grassland agriculture in the provinces in 2020 and 2025 is set according to the cultivated land and grassland resources of the provinces, The actual area of cropland rotation and cultivated grassland.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323
本文编号：2461312
[Abstract]:Because of the transformation of food consumption structure from plant food to animal and plant food in China, the research on food security has been gradually transformed into food safety research. In order to deal with the food safety under the new situation, academician Ren Jizhou put forward the idea of changing the traditional agricultural structure and developing grassland agriculture. On this basis, some scholars demonstrated the necessity of developing grassland agriculture, estimated the food production potential of developing grassland agriculture, and carried out experiments on grassland agriculture all over the country, and obtained more research results. However, there is a lack of analysis on the spatial demand of herbivores and livestock products, the effective prediction of the future demand and the planning of the development rate of grassland agriculture. Therefore, on the basis of previous theoretical and practical studies, the main food (food rations, food-consuming livestock products and herbivorous livestock products) of the residents were studied in this study, and spatial econometrics and time trend prediction methods were used. Based on the dimensions of food equivalent and farmland equivalent, this paper analyzes the evolution of food demand in China in 1998 and 2012 from the perspective of demand, and forecasts the quantity of food demand in various provinces in 2020 and 2025. On the basis of food demand, the general layout of grassland agriculture development in China in the short term has been worked out. 1. The per capita demand for food varies greatly from province to province. The per capita consumption of grain-consuming animal products showed obvious step-by-step distribution, gradually decreasing from northeast to southwest, and the trend was more obvious in 2012; the per capita consumption of food-consuming livestock products in 1998 was much more than that in the north and south, and in 2012, it was less in the middle of the country than in the north; The per capita consumption of herbivorous animal products in the west was higher than that in the central and eastern regions, and showed a trend of less in the middle and more in the north and south. The spatial correlation analysis showed that the per capita consumption of the three foods had significant positive spatial correlation. 2. The food demand on the provincial scale in the future is predicted. The index trend prediction model was used to predict the per capita consumption of rations, and the linear trend prediction model was used to predict the per capita consumption and population quantity of food-consuming animal products, grass-food livestock products and food-consuming livestock products. 124 regression analyses were carried out in 31 provinces. The test of parameter estimation shows that most of the parameters are significant at p0.05 level, and the model is effective. For the model with very few parameter estimates, conservative estimation is made by using 2012 values. 3. The short-term production layout of grassland agriculture based on demand-oriented has been formulated. According to the food needs of the provinces, the "red line" of the equivalent number of farmland for the provinces in 2020 and 2025 is calculated, and the cultivated land for the development of grassland agriculture in the provinces in 2020 and 2025 is set according to the cultivated land and grassland resources of the provinces, The actual area of cropland rotation and cultivated grassland.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323
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