塔里木河流域人均粮食时空格局变化及驱动力分析——基于巴音郭勒蒙古自治州县域地力视角
发布时间：2019-06-04 21:35
【摘要】：我国经济发展进入"新常态"时期以来,在产业结构调整,经济增长要素驱动转换,供给侧改革等众多压力背景下,资源与环境、人口与粮食安全问题加剧凸显出来。耕地资源减少、耕地产能下降、粮食进口规模增大、农业生产积极性降低等从多个方面向粮食安全施压,并产生一系列社会、经济、生态附属问题。[目的]文章对被誉为"南疆粮仓"的塔里木河流域粮食安全问题进行研究,以期为中国粮食主产区之一的新疆提供"粮食-经济-社会"方面的理论和实践指导。[方法]该文选取塔里木河流域最大地级行政区巴州8县1市为研究对象,依据15年(1999~2014年)人均粮食变化数据构建模型,联合系统聚类,构造人均粮食时空格局分区,并引入地理加权回归模型、耕地地力OLS模型进行空间。[结果]15年间巴州各县人均粮食产量整体上升中存在两次明显波动,其中2007年各县平均降幅38.29%;尉犁县、库尔勒市其人口与粮食缺口矛盾较大,粮食安全风险较大,2007以后巴州边缘县域释放人均粮食产量升高的信号。[结论]自然状况因素、生产管理要素投入是巴州1999~2007年期间人均粮食增加的主要积极因素,而人口状况是人均粮食产量增幅的限制因素;2007~2014年,自然状况因素、生产管理要素投入不再是人均粮食产量增加的主要积极因素;巴州地区高等级耕地地力变化对人均粮食变化影响较大,8等地每增加1%,人均粮食增加176.10kg;中等、一般等级每增加1%,人均粮食减少67~488kg。
[Abstract]:Since the economic development of our country entered the period of "new normal", under the background of industrial structure adjustment, economic growth factor-driven transformation, supply-side reform and so on, the problems of resources and environment, population and food security have become more and more prominent. The decrease of cultivated land resources, the decline of cultivated land production capacity, the increase of grain import scale and the decrease of agricultural production enthusiasm put pressure on food security from many aspects, and produced a series of social, economic and ecological ancillary problems. [objective] this paper studies the problem of food security in Tarim River Basin, which is known as "grain warehouse in southern Xinjiang", in order to provide theoretical and practical guidance on "grain economy and society" for Xinjiang, one of the main grain producing areas in China. [methods] in this paper, 8 counties and 1 city of Bazhou, the largest prefectural administrative area of Tarim River Basin, were selected as the research object. According to the data of per capita grain change for 15 years (1999 ~ 2014), the model was constructed, and the spatial and temporal pattern of per capita grain was constructed by systematic clustering. The geographical weighted regression model and the OLS model of cultivated land fertility are introduced to carry out the space. [results] there were two obvious fluctuations in the overall increase of per capita grain output in each county of Bazhou in the past 15 years, among which the average decrease of each county in 2007 was 38.29%. In Yuli County and Korla City, the contradiction between population and grain gap is great, and the risk of food security is greater. After 2007, the marginal counties of Bazhou released the signal of increasing per capita grain output. [conclusion] the factors of natural condition and the input of production management factors are the main positive factors of per capita grain increase in Bazhou during 1999 / 2007, and the population situation is the limiting factor of the increase of per capita grain output. From 2007 to 2014, natural factors and input of production management factors were no longer the main positive factors for the increase of per capita grain output. The change of land capacity of high grade cultivated land in Bazhou area has a great influence on the change of grain per capita, with an increase of 1% in 8%, 176.10 kg in per capita grain, and 67 鈮，
本文编号：2493021
[Abstract]:Since the economic development of our country entered the period of "new normal", under the background of industrial structure adjustment, economic growth factor-driven transformation, supply-side reform and so on, the problems of resources and environment, population and food security have become more and more prominent. The decrease of cultivated land resources, the decline of cultivated land production capacity, the increase of grain import scale and the decrease of agricultural production enthusiasm put pressure on food security from many aspects, and produced a series of social, economic and ecological ancillary problems. [objective] this paper studies the problem of food security in Tarim River Basin, which is known as "grain warehouse in southern Xinjiang", in order to provide theoretical and practical guidance on "grain economy and society" for Xinjiang, one of the main grain producing areas in China. [methods] in this paper, 8 counties and 1 city of Bazhou, the largest prefectural administrative area of Tarim River Basin, were selected as the research object. According to the data of per capita grain change for 15 years (1999 ~ 2014), the model was constructed, and the spatial and temporal pattern of per capita grain was constructed by systematic clustering. The geographical weighted regression model and the OLS model of cultivated land fertility are introduced to carry out the space. [results] there were two obvious fluctuations in the overall increase of per capita grain output in each county of Bazhou in the past 15 years, among which the average decrease of each county in 2007 was 38.29%. In Yuli County and Korla City, the contradiction between population and grain gap is great, and the risk of food security is greater. After 2007, the marginal counties of Bazhou released the signal of increasing per capita grain output. [conclusion] the factors of natural condition and the input of production management factors are the main positive factors of per capita grain increase in Bazhou during 1999 / 2007, and the population situation is the limiting factor of the increase of per capita grain output. From 2007 to 2014, natural factors and input of production management factors were no longer the main positive factors for the increase of per capita grain output. The change of land capacity of high grade cultivated land in Bazhou area has a great influence on the change of grain per capita, with an increase of 1% in 8%, 176.10 kg in per capita grain, and 67 鈮，
本文编号：2493021
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