基于GWR模型的原中央苏区经济发展水平空间差异及其驱动机制

发布时间：2017-12-28 17:24

本文关键词：基于GWR模型的原中央苏区经济发展水平空间差异及其驱动机制　出处：《江西科学》2016年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：采用标准差和变异系数、泰尔指数、ESDA分析方法及冷热点分析方法对原中央苏区1990年、2000年、2010年、2013年区域经济发展时空演变格局进行分析,并基于GWR模型深入探讨原中央苏区区域经济差异的驱动机制。结果表明:1)1990-2013年,原中央苏区人均GDP从1 207元上升到33 311元,极差、标准差逐年扩大,变异系数先升后降,从1990年的0.555 3增至2013年的0.573 2,泰尔指数从1990年的0.063 2增至2013年的0.107 9,区域经济发展极不均衡,两极分化严重,东西差异显著,区域差异整体呈持续扩大趋势;2)Moran's I指数值由1990年的0.534 4增加到2013年的0.587 3,原中央苏区经济差异存在空间自相关性,呈现出较高的空间集聚性;3)热点区范围由南向北、先扩大后缩小,冷点区范围总体趋向扩大,沿着武夷山脉一线向西北及东南方向大面积集聚;冷点区面积相对较大,原中央苏区经济发展水平整体呈负向增长;4)投资水平对原中央苏区经济发展起促进作用,不合理的产业结构、消费水平、政府支持因素起抑制作用,产业结构因素对原中央苏区经济差异驱动影响最大。
[Abstract]:Using standard deviation and variation coefficient, Theil index, ESDA analysis method and analysis method of cold and hot spots for the Central Soviet Area in 1990, 2000, 2010, 2013, the regional economic development of spatio-temporal pattern analysis based on GWR model, and in-depth research on driving mechanism of the former Soviet central regional economic difference. The results show that: 1) 1990-2013 years, the former Soviet central GDP per capita increased from 1207 yuan to 33311 yuan range, the standard deviation is increasing year by year, the coefficient of variation decreased, increased from 0.5553 in 1990 to 0.5732 in 2013, the Theil index increased to 0.1079 in 2013 from 0.0632 in 1990, the regional economic development is extremely uneven, serious polarization what differences, regional differences, the overall trend was continuing to expand; 2) Moran's I index increased from 0.5344 in 1990 to 0.5873 in 2013, is the former Soviet central economic differences in spatial autocorrelation, showing a higher concentration of space; 3) hot area narrow from South to north, the first expansion, cold point the overall trend of expanding area, along the Wuyi Mountains to the northwest and southeast area of agglomeration area; cold point area is relatively large, the former Soviet central economic development level shows negative growth; 4) level of investment The economic development of the former Central Soviet area played a positive role. Irrational industrial structure, consumption level, and government support factors played a role of inhibition. Industrial structure factors had the greatest driving force on the economic difference of the Central Soviet area.
【作者单位】：东华理工大学地球科学学院;
【基金】：江西省自然科学基金项目(20151BAB213032)
【分类号】：F129
【正文快照】： 0引言原中央苏区是土地革命战争时期最重要的中央革命根据地,涵盖了赣粤闽3省的108个县(市、区)[1],由于区位、人口、资源、政策等因素的不平衡,导致原中央苏区经济发展水平长期不均衡,既有泉州、漳州等经济快速发展地区,也有赣南、梅州等贫困集中区。为此,国务院于2012年6月

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