货币政策效应的区域差异研究

发布时间：2018-01-02 03:01

本文关键词：货币政策效应的区域差异研究　出处：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

更多相关文章： 货币政策 区域差异 SVAR MS-VAR

【摘要】：区域发展不均衡是当前中国宏观经济发展中的一个突出问题,货币当局一直运用宏观经济的两大调控手段即货币政策和财政政策来实现我国经济的发展。随着经济体制的改革,货币政策逐渐的成为调控我国经济发展的主要手段,其对经济发展的影响越来越大。多年来,我国为了实现宏观经济目标,一直实施统一的货币政策去维护国家整体经济的稳定,注重整体经济的发展,而忽视了国家内部即各地区之间所存在的众多经济差异,没有及时地采取有针对性的措施,这必然会导致区域之间的经济差异越来越大。这不仅会阻碍我国整体经济的发展,而且更会破坏整体经济的稳定,影响到人民的正常生活。货币政策的目标不仅仅是为了稳定国家整体经济,更应该重视各区域间的经济协调发展。因此,货币政策效应是否存在区域差异,对于不同区域的经济影响有何不同以及导致这种区域差异的影响因素都是非常值得探讨的问题。本文首先通过归纳关于货币政策效应区域差异的国内外相关文献,对研究这一问题的诸多角度和方法进行总结。然后通过货币政策有效性,最优货币区理论以及货币政策的传导机制三个方面对我国的区域经济发展进行初步理论分析,再通过构建线性的SVAR模型和非线性的MS-VAR模型进行实证分析,利用1996年-2015年的相关季度数据,分别从整体和不同经济阶段,研究货币政策冲击对我国东部、东北部、西部和中部四个区域的经济产出和通货膨胀的影响程度和差异大小。研究结果表明:第一,货币政策效应对我国不同区域的经济产出和通货膨胀确实存在一定的区域差异。第二,短期内实行扩张性的货币政策均会促进我国各个区域的通货膨胀和经济增长,并随着时间的推移,货币政策的作用逐渐减弱,最终使各区域的经济发展趋于稳定。第三,在不同经济增长阶段,货币政策效应对区域经济产出和通货膨胀的影响是存在差异的。相较于经济低速增长阶段,在经济高速增长阶段实施扩张性货币政策对于通货膨胀的促进作用更为有效,并且对于经济产出的负向影响较大。第四,相较于其他区域,货币政策对我国东部这类发达地区的经济产出和通货膨胀的影响最为显著。最后,本文针对研究结果对造成这一问题的原因进行了分析并提出了一些政策建议。
[Abstract]:Unbalanced regional development is a prominent problem in the development of Chinese macroeconomic, monetary authorities have been using the two macroeconomic control means that monetary and fiscal policies to achieve the economic development of China. With the reform of economic system, the main means for the regulation of the economic development of our country's monetary policy gradually, the the impact on economic development more and more. Over the years, in order to achieve our goal of macro economy, monetary policy has been implemented to safeguard the country's overall economic stability, pay attention to the overall economic development, while ignoring the many differences between countries within the region, no timely targeted the measures, which will inevitably lead to economic disparities between regions more and more. This will not only hinder the development of China's economy as a whole, but also undermine the overall economic stability, affect people The normal life of the people. The goal of monetary policy is not only to stabilize the national economy as a whole, should pay more attention to the inter regional economic coordinated development. Therefore, the effect of monetary policy exist regional differences, is very worthy of discussion for the different economic effect of different regions and lead to influence the regional difference factors. Firstly, through the inductive effect of regional differences on monetary policy of domestic and foreign literatures, on various angles to research these problems and methods are summarized. Then the effectiveness of monetary policy, the preliminary theoretical analysis of regional economic development of our country's three aspects of the transmission mechanism of the theory of optimum currency area, monetary policy, and then through the empirical analysis MS-VAR model and nonlinear SVAR model construction of the linear correlation using the data of 1996 -2015 quarter, respectively from the overall and not With the economic stage, study the impact of monetary policy on China's eastern, northeastern, the influence and the differences between the four regions of Western and central economic output and inflation size. The results show that: first, the effect of monetary policy in different regions of China's economic output and inflation is different in different regions. In second, the implementation of the expansionary monetary policy in the short term will promote inflation and economic growth in various regions of our country, and with the passage of time, the role of monetary policy gradually weakened, the regional economic development tends to be stable. Third, in different stages of economic growth, the effect of monetary policy on the regional economic output and inflation exist the difference. Compared to the slow economic growth phase, expansionary monetary policy to promote inflation is more effective in the stage of rapid economic growth, and And the economic output had great negative effect. Fourth, compared to other regions, the impact of monetary policy on China's eastern developed areas of this kind of economic output and inflation is the most significant. Finally, according to the research results on the causes of this problem are analyzed and put forward some policy suggestions.

【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F822.0;F127

【参考文献】