美韩FTA的实施对我国对外贸易的影响分析

发布时间：2018-01-02 21:17

本文关键词：美韩FTA的实施对我国对外贸易的影响分析　出处：《大连海事大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：20世纪90年代以来,区域经济一体化在世界范围内兴起,双边自由贸易协定更是成为全球范围内一种普遍的经济现象。美韩自由贸易协定的设想在美韩两国的经济贸易关系有所疏远的情形下出现,并于2006年2月正式启动进行谈判。经过十四个月的艰苦谈判,美韩双方在相互妥协的基础上达成一致,美韩FTA于2007年4月签署,该协议涉及农业、服装、纺织品和汽车等十多个领域的贸易问题。由于美韩双方在该协议的具体敏感问题上有所分歧,在很长一段时期内,两国国会一直没有通过该协议。但由于美韩FTA的实施会给美韩两国带来巨大的经济利益和政治利益,两国在互相让步的基础上于2010年12月6日再次达成一致,并于2012年3月15日正式生效。中国经济的快速增长、中国与韩国经贸关系的日益紧密及中国对亚太地区影响力的增强都促使了美国积极与韩国签署FTA。同时,韩国也试图通过该协议摆脱在东亚地区的尴尬地位,分散对外贸易依存度。美韩FTA的签署,是美国牵制中国崛起、增强自身在亚太地区影响力以及巩固世界霸主地位的最佳途径,也是韩国摆脱技术水平优越、生产力高的日本和生产成本低、技术不断发展的中国的重要一步。美韩FTA的实施不仅会促使美韩两国贸易量激增以及美韩双方社会福利和国际竞争力的增强,也会对周边国家的贸易及社会福利带来负面影响。中国作为美韩两国重要的贸易伙伴,势必会受到美韩FTA的影响。美韩FTA所达成的协议会通过贸易转移等直接和间接的影响我国与美韩两国的贸易合作,削弱我国产品在美韩市场上的竞争力,特别是对我国农产品和服装纺织品等出口支柱产业的出口造成很大影响。本文从美韩FTA的实施给我国对外贸易带来的影响出发,着重论述了该协议对我国对外贸易、吸收直接投资和在东亚所处环境的影响,通过GTAP模型模拟分析了美韩FTA实施后会给我国GDP、整体福利及具体行业的对外贸易所产生的具体影响,并尽可能从中找出促进中国产业结构升级和完善自身FTA战略的积极因素,进而采取合适的贸易应对策略。
[Abstract]:Since 1990s, regional economic integration has risen in the world. Bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) have become a universal economic phenomenon all over the world. The idea of U.S.-Korea Free Trade agreements (FTAs) appears under the circumstances of the estrangement of the economic and trade relations between the United States and South Korea. After 14 months of arduous negotiations, the United States and South Korea reached an agreement on the basis of mutual compromise, the United States and South Korea FTA signed on April 2007. The deal deals with trade in more than a dozen areas, including agriculture, clothing, textiles and automobiles. It has been a long time since the United States and South Korea were divided on the specific sensitive issues of the agreement. The agreement has not been approved by the two countries, but the implementation of the FTA will bring huge economic and political benefits to the two countries. The two countries agreed again on December 6th 2010, on the basis of mutual concessions, and came into effect on March 15th 2012. The rapid growth of China's economy, the growing economic and trade ties between China and South Korea, and China's growing influence in the Asia-Pacific region have prompted the United States to sign FTA. with South Korea. South Korea is also trying to get rid of its awkward position in East Asia and disperse its dependence on foreign trade through the agreement. The signing of FTA by the United States and South Korea is the United States to curb the rise of China. The best way to strengthen its influence in the Asia-Pacific region and consolidate its position as a world hegemon is for South Korea to get rid of Japan, which is technologically superior and has high productivity, and low production costs. The implementation of FTA in the United States and South Korea will not only boost the volume of trade between the United States and South Korea, but also enhance the social welfare and international competitiveness of the two countries. It will also have a negative impact on the trade and social welfare of neighboring countries. China is an important trade partner between the United States and South Korea. The agreement reached by the US and South Korea FTA will directly and indirectly affect the trade cooperation between China and the United States and South Korea through trade transfer and so on. To weaken the competitiveness of our products in the market of America and Korea, especially the export of our country's agricultural products and clothing textiles and other export pillar industries. Starting from the impact of the implementation of FTA in the United States and South Korea on China's foreign trade, this paper focuses on the impact of the agreement on China's foreign trade, absorption of direct investment and the environment in East Asia. The GTAP model is used to simulate and analyze the impact of FTA implementation on China's GDP, overall welfare and foreign trade in specific industries. And find out the positive factors to promote the upgrading of China's industrial structure and improve its own FTA strategy, and then adopt appropriate trade strategy.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752;F744

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