长江感潮河段水位过程预报模型研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 02:31

本文关键词：长江感潮河段水位过程预报模型研究　出处：《南京师范大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：长江感潮河段是指从安徽大通水文站至江苏徐六泾之间的河段,全长600余公里,这一河段是长江的一个重要组成部分,该河段流域在社会和经济发展中有着明显的区位与资源优势,对国家和区域经济发展具有非常重要的意义。由于感潮河段周围地区地势较为平坦、地面高程较低,在上游径流和下游潮汐的共同作用下极容易出现洪涝灾害。因此,对感潮河段水位过程预报研究长期以来都受到地理学、水文学等方面的专家和学者的关注和重视。但现有的感潮河段水位过程预报模型和方法存在资料要求高、稳定性差、求解繁琐、预测精度低等问题,基于此,本文试图提出一种简单易用、预测精度较高且适合于感潮河段水位过程预报的模型。感潮河段与一般河段不同,其水位同时受到河流动力和潮汐动力的作用,因此,水位过程的变化更为复杂。为了更准确地模拟感潮河段水位过程,本文将感潮河段水位分离成日平均水位和潮波水位两个部分,分别研究日平均水位预报模型和潮波水位预报模型,然后,将二者合并得到感潮河段水位过程预报模型。本文对感潮河段日平均水位预报模型构建方法进行了研究,通过研究得到了仅考虑上游径流、考虑上游径流和外海潮差两种日平均水位的预报模型,并将模型应用于南京站和江阴站进行验证,在不同站点验证过程中采用回归分析方法确定模型基本方程中的各项参数后进行预报。验证结果表明考虑径流和潮差的模型预测误差比仅考虑径流的模型预测误差要低,其中南京站考虑径流与潮差的模型预测平均误差降低2cm左右。在感潮河段潮波水位预报模型构建的研究中,以传统天文潮水位预报模型为基础,确定了径流量与天文潮水位预报模型中系数之间的关系基本形式为二次多项式,构建了感潮河段潮波水位预报模型的基本形式,采用Fortran语言开发实现该模型,并将其应用于南京站和江阴站的潮波水位预报中进行验证,验证结果表明在天文潮水位预报模型中考虑径流作用后,受径流影响大的南京站潮波水位预报平均误差比传统模型减少5cm左右,高低潮时平均误差减少2分钟；受径流影响较小的江阴站平均误差减少约1cm,高低潮时平均误差减少1分钟。本研究在感潮河段日平均水位和潮波水位预报模型构建的基础上,将二者叠加得到感潮河段水位过程预报模型,采用Fortran语言实现模型,以南京站和江阴站为例,对本文所构建的水位过程预报模型和传统水位预报模型进行验证和比较,验证结果表明,南京站本文模型潮位预报平均误差与传统模型相比减少约3cm,高低潮时平均预报误差减少约2分钟；江阴站本文模型2003年预测2004年水位过程时,本文模型潮位平均误差比传统模型减少3cm,高低潮时平均误差减少约1分钟。通过对感潮河段水位过程预报模型的研究和实验验证,证明了：(1)潮波上溯对感潮河段日平均水位的变化影响明显,在日平均水位预报模型中考虑外海潮差因素可以提高预报精度；(2)河流动力对感潮河段潮波水位的变化产生作用,离大通水文站距离越近,径流的影响越明显,在潮波水位预报中增加对径流量这一因素的考虑可以改善潮位的预测精度和高低潮位时刻的预报准确度。
[Abstract]:Tidal reach of the Yangtze River is from Anhui Datong hydrometric station to Jiangsu between six Xu Jing River, a total length of 600 kilometers, the river is an important part of the Yangtze River, the river basin with location and resource advantages in the development of society and economy, has very important significance to national and regional the development of economy. Because of tidal river area around the relatively flat terrain, the ground elevation is low, very prone to floods in the interaction of upstream runoff and downstream tide. Therefore, the tidal river stage forecasting research has long been affected by geography, hydrology and other experts and scholars and attach much importance to it. The water level of the tidal river existing process prediction model and method has high data requirements, poor stability, low prediction accuracy is very complex, based on this, this paper tries to put forward a kind of simple and easy to use, accurate prediction A model of high degree and suitable for the prediction of water level process in tidal river.
Tidal river is different from the general River, the water level at the same time by river power and tidal power, therefore, changes in the water level process is more complex. In order to accurately simulate the tidal river water level, the water level of the tidal river separating Chengri average water level and tidal waves of water two parts, respectively, on average water level forecasting model of tidal wave and water level forecasting model, and then, the two combined tidal river stage forecasting model.
The tidal reach daily average water level forecasting model construction method is studied, through the research only consider the upstream runoff prediction model of upstream runoff and tidal two daily average water level, and will be in the NanJing Railway Station and Jiangyin station to verify the application of the model in different site verification process using the regression analysis method to determine the parameters of the basic equation in the model prediction. The verification results show that the consideration of runoff and tidal range prediction errors than only considering the runoff forecasting error is lower, the NanJing Railway Station runoff and tidal range model considering the average prediction error is decreased by about 2cm.
In the study of the tidal river tidal wave to construct water level forecasting model in the sense that the traditional astronomical tide forecasting model as the basis, to determine the diameter and flow coefficient between astronomical tide level forecast model of the relationship between the basic form of two polynomial, construct the basic form of tidal river tide level forecast model, using Fortran language development and implementation of the model, and verify the tidal wave water level forecast of its application to the NanJing Railway Station and Jiangyin station, the verification results show that the water level in the tide prediction model considering the effect of runoff after the senior high school entrance examination, affected by the runoff average tidal wave water level forecast error of NanJing Railway Station reduced about 5cm compared with the traditional model, the high and low tide when the average error is reduced by 2 min; affected by the runoff of Jiangyin station average error reduction of about 1cm, the high and low tide when the average error reduction of 1 minutes.
Based on the construction of the tidal reach daily average water level and tidal water level forecast model, the two superimposed by tidal river stage forecasting model, using Fortran language model, to the NanJing Railway Station and Jiangyin station as an example, the water level of the established forecast model and the traditional water level forecasting model is verified and the comparison results show that the model of NanJing Railway Station tide prediction average error reduction compared with the traditional model about 3cm, the high and low tide when the average prediction error is reduced by about 2 minutes; Jiangyin station in 2003 2004 forecast water level process model in this paper, the model of tidal reductions in average error than the traditional 3cm model, the high and low tide when the average error is reduced by about 1 minutes.
According to the research and experiment of tidal river stage forecasting model, proved that: (1) tidal wave back change on tidal reach daily average water level effect is obvious, the daily average water level forecasting model considering tidal difference factors senior high school entrance examination can improve the prediction accuracy; (2) the change of tidal river tidal river power the water level of the wave function, from Datong hydrological station distance closer, the more obvious the influence of runoff, increase the factors of runoff considerations can improve the prediction accuracy and low tide tide time forecast accuracy in the tidal water level forecast.

【学位授予单位】：南京师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P338

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