中国区域碳排放差异分析及减排路径研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 09:17

本文关键词：中国区域碳排放差异分析及减排路径研究　出处：《东北大学》2015年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：世界各国之间的不均衡发展导致的碳博弈成为国际上碳减排的难题,碳排放差异成为解决碳排放问题的焦点内容。通过碳排放的差异分析可以评估各区域的减排工作成果和未来的减排潜力,能够为降低碳排放,促进低碳经济发展提供理论依据。中国作为世界上碳排放最大的国家,不同区域碳排放存在显著的差异,根据不同区域的碳排放影响因素作用机制不同,探索基于不同影响因素的减排路径,已经成为促进区域低碳经济协调发展的重要任务。因此,科学地对中国区域碳排放差异问题进行提炼,分析中国区域碳排放差异,研究碳排放的收敛性及其影响因素,寻求具有针对性的减排路径,对于我国积极降低碳排放,实现低碳经济转型具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。本文对中国区域碳排放差异及减排路径问题进行了探讨,主要研究工作概况如下：(1)核算2000-2012年中国不同区域碳排放,利用泰尔指数方法测算不同区域对碳排放差异的贡献率,对比分析不同区域人均碳排放差异和碳排放强度差异的变化趋势。首先参考国际组织发布的中国碳排放数据,确定计量中国区域碳排放方法,测算2000-2012年中国30个省域和三大区域的碳排放；然后采用泰尔指数研究方法对中国区域的碳排放差异进行测算,分别基于人口和经济增长权重对碳排放差异进行分析,分析不同区域对区域碳排放差异的贡献率；最后对比分析不同权重下的碳排放差异,即人均碳排放差异和碳排放强度差异的变化趋势。(2)针对我国区域碳排放的收敛性,分别建立碳排放σ收敛、绝对p收敛和条件p收敛模型,分析不同影响因素对碳排放收敛性的作用。将新古典经济增长理论中的收敛假说引入到碳排放差异性分析中,针对中国区域碳排放差异的收敛状况进行实证研究,分析中国及东部、中部和西部三大区域碳排放水平的σ收敛、绝对p收敛和条件p收敛,分别从人口、经济增长、技术进步、城镇化率、产业结构、能源价格和国际贸易七个因素考察,不同影响因素对全国及三大区域碳排放条件p收敛的作用效应。研究结果显示中国碳排放存在总体发散,局部收敛的特征,不同区域范围都具有绝对p收敛和条件p收敛的趋势,并进一步探索了不同区域碳排放条件β收敛不同驱动因素。(3)针对中国不同区域碳排放差异形成因素,建立碳排放灰色关联度模型,验证不同影响因素对不同区域碳排放作用的差异性。通过建立碳排放灰色绝对关联度、灰色相对关联度和灰色综合关联度模型,测算了人口、经济增长、技术进步、城镇化率、产业结构、能源价格和国际贸易七个影响因素对不同区域的碳排放灰色绝对关联度、灰色相对关联度和灰色综合关联度,根据中国不同区域的发展阶段与不同影响因素的碳排放关联度结果,判断不同区域发展程度的碳排放影响因素作用机制是不同的,发展阶段相同的不同区域碳排放影响因素是相似的。(4)针对碳排放的空间相关性,检验区域碳排放的空间依赖性、集群性和时空跃迁路径,建立考虑空间效应的面板数据空间计量经济模型,对碳排放的影响因素问题进行实证分析。通过全域空间自相关检验分析我国区域碳排放的空间依赖性和时空跃迁路径,局域空间自相关检验分析空间集聚性,研究发现中国区域碳排放存在显著的正相关,验证中国碳排放具有显著的空间依赖性、集聚性和路径依赖性的特征。进一步通过建立可拓展的随机性的环境影响评估模型进行研究,基于普通面板数据模型、空间滞后面板数据模型、空间杜宾面板面板数据模型,从人口、经济增长、技术进步、城镇化率、产业结构、能源价格和国际贸易七个影响因素视域,对区域碳排放的不同影响因素进行实证分析,验证了碳排放及其影响因素的空间溢出性,经济增长、城镇化率、产业结构和国际贸易是碳排放增加的主要因素,应该进一步加强技术进步对降低碳排放的作用,不同影响因素对东部、中部和西部区域的碳排放作用效应不同,应该注意碳排放空间联动机制,采取有区别的减排策略。(5)根据碳排放空间联动机制,针对不同碳排放影响因素提出不同区域的减排路径。参考前面几章的研究结论,分别从人口、经济增长、技术进步、城镇化率、产业结构、能源价格和国际贸易七个不同视域,根据不同区域的碳排放影响因素的不同作用,提出不同区域具有针对性的减排路径。本文提出的中国区域碳排放差异分析及减排路径问题的研究,进一步完善低碳经济发展的相关理论,为实现中国区域碳减排理论与方法提供借鉴和指导。本文的研究结果不仅可以辅助国家政府部门在低碳经济背景下制定恰当的减排政策,也能够为不同区域实现减排目标提供一定的启示,符合我国经济发展规划和长远利益,对推动区域经济低碳发展和实现中国经济整体低碳转型具有重要的意义。
[Abstract]:Carbon game unbalanced development between the countries in the world to become the international carbon emission reduction problem, difference of carbon emissions has become the focus of content to solve the problem of carbon emissions. Carbon emissions through difference analysis can evaluate the regional emission reduction work and future emission reduction potential, to reduce carbon emissions, and provide a theoretical basis for the promotion of low-carbon economy the development of China. As the world's largest country of carbon emissions, carbon emissions in different regions are different, according to the effects of carbon emissions in different regions of the factors of different mechanisms, explore the path of emission reduction on multi factor, has become an important task to promote the coordinated development of regional low-carbon economy. Therefore, refining of regional carbon emissions the difference China scientifically, analysis of regional carbon emissions Chinese differences, factors of convergence and its influence on carbon emissions, seek targeted emission reduction Road Size, for China to reduce carbon emissions has important theoretical value and practical significance of low-carbon economy. This paper discusses the differences of regional carbon emissions and emission reduction Chinese path problem, the main contents are as follows: (1) Chinese different regional carbon emissions accounting for 2000-2012 years, using Theil index calculation method in different regions contribution to the carbon emission rate difference, comparative analysis of trends of the per capita carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity difference difference in different regions. The first international organization released China carbon emissions data, determine the measurement Chinese regional carbon emissions calculation method, 2000-2012 Chinese 30 provinces and three regional carbon emissions; and then using the Theil index study on the method of regional differences on carbon emissions Chinese was calculated respectively based on population and economic growth to analyze the weight difference of carbon emissions, analysis of different regions On the regional differences of carbon emissions contribution rate; and a comparative analysis of differences of carbon emissions under different weights, the change trend of per capita carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity difference difference. (2) according to the convergence of regional carbon emissions in China, established carbon emissions convergence, absolute convergence and conditional convergence of P P model analysis the different factors on carbon emissions. The convergence of the new classical theory of economic growth in the convergence hypothesis analysis is introduced to the carbon emissions differences, makes the empirical research on the convergence of regional carbon emissions China difference analysis, Chinese convergence in the East and central and western region of the three levels of carbon emissions, the absolute convergence of P and the conditions of P convergence, respectively from the population, economic growth, technological progress, industrial structure, urbanization rate, energy prices and international trade effects of seven factors, the different factors for the national and three regional carbon emissions p The effect of convergence. The results show Chinese carbon emissions are the overall features of local convergence, divergence, different regions have absolute convergence and conditional convergence of P P trend, and to further explore the different regional carbon emissions conditional convergence for different driving factors. (3) the formation of needle factors on carbon emissions in different regions of Chinese differences. A carbon grey correlation model, validation of different influence factors on different regional carbon emissions of carbon emissions. By establishing the grey absolute correlation degree, grey correlation degree and grey comprehensive correlation degree model, calculated the population, economic growth, technological progress, industrial structure, urbanization rate, energy prices and international trade the influence of seven factors on carbon emissions in different regions of the grey absolute correlation degree, grey correlation degree and grey comprehensive correlation degree, according to the different regional development stage and different China Effect of carbon emission factors of the results, determine the mechanism of carbon emission factors of different degree of regional development is different, different factors affect regional carbon emissions in the same stage of development is similar. (4) according to the spatial correlation of carbon emissions, carbon emissions inspection area spatial dependence, cluster and space-time transition path the establishment of panel data, the spatial econometric model considering spatial effect, empirical analysis of influencing factors of carbon emissions. The global spatial autocorrelation analysis of regional carbon emission in China's spatial dependence and spatial transition path, local spatial autocorrelation analysis of spatial agglomeration of regional carbon emissions, the study found that there is a significant Chinese positive correlation, Chinese verification of carbon emissions has significant spatial dependence, agglomeration and path dependence. Further through the establishment of stochastic development Study on the environmental impact assessment model, common panel data model based on panel data model of spatial data spatial lag, Durbin panel model, from the population, economic growth, technological progress, industrial structure, urbanization rate, energy prices and international trade seven factors perspective, makes an empirical analysis on different factors of regional carbon emissions, carbon emissions and verify the effect of spatial spillover factors, economic growth, urbanization rate, industrial structure and international trade are the main factors of carbon emissions increase, we should further strengthen the technological progress to reduce carbon emissions, the different factors on the eastern, central and western regions of the effect of different carbon emissions that should pay attention to carbon emissions spatial linkage mechanism, adopt different emission reduction strategies. (5) according to the carbon spatial linkage mechanism for different carbon emissions influence factors and put forward different The conclusion of regional emission reduction path. The reference of the previous chapter, separately from the population, economic growth, technological progress, industrial structure, urbanization rate, energy prices and international trade seven different perspective, according to the different role of carbon emissions in different regions of the influence factors, put forward different areas with path. The research for emission reduction the regional differences of carbon emissions Chinese proposed analysis and reduction path problem, further improve the relevant theory of the development of low carbon economy, and provide the reference for the realization of China regional carbon emission reduction theory and method. The results of this study can not only assist government departments to formulate appropriate emission reduction policies in the country under the background of low carbon economy, can also provide some inspiration to achieve targets in different regions, in line with the economic development plan of our country and long-term interests, to promote low-carbon development of regional economy and realize China's economic integration The transformation of body low carbon is of great significance.

【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F124.5

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