中国城市房价差异对产业结构的影响分析

发布时间：2018-01-06 08:29

本文关键词：中国城市房价差异对产业结构的影响分析　出处：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在经济发展进入“新常态”的背景下,为使我国经济能够保持中高速增长、平稳度过经济转型调整期,“产业结构的调整与升级”就成为了我国政府和企业所面临的重要问题之一。影响产业结构调整的因素有很多,如技术进步、消费结构变化、劳动力及资本禀赋变化等等,而本文将视角集中于我国的房地产行业发展情况上。自1998年住房改革以来,房地产行业一直都是我国国民经济基础产业。一方面,房价上涨产生的财富效应会带动消费,对我国内需产生正向的拉动作用,另一方面,房地产市场的繁荣带动了其上下游大量相关产业的发展,催生了大量的市场需求,同时,各地房地产市场的发展也为地区经济增长做出了巨大贡献。房价变动在影响我国经济增长和波动的同时,也对我国的产业结构有着深刻的直接或间接影响。在2008年金融危机前,中国GDP的快速增长很大程度上依赖于迅速高企的房地产市场,但由于我国房地产市场并不成熟,过快的发展催生出了一系列问题,如我国房地产市场发展严重不均衡、区域分化严重,一线城市及部分二线城市房价高企,但三、四线城市房地产库存严重等等,这些现象也加速了我国产业结构调整失衡的问题。在当前的经济背景下,政府是否能够通过对房地产市场的调节进而调整和升级产业结构?进一步地,面对区域分化严重的中国房地产市场以及不同的地区初始禀赋,如何因地制宜地制定住房调节政策、在调整楼市的同时调整和平衡各地区的产业结构?这些问题的解决,无疑是帮助我国高效、合理地进行产业结构改革的新视角之一。因此,本文根据目前我国的房地产现状和产业结构现状,分析了城市房价差异对产业结构调整的影响机制,厘清地区房价影响产业结构的路径,并实证分析了我国60个大中城市中这种影响力度的异同,以期为我国产业结构调整升级提出相应建议。本文在克鲁格曼的传统中心-边缘模型中引入了房价因素并进行了理论推导,得出“城市房价差异会对产业结构产生影响”这一命题,进而建立静态面板数据模型,基于2001-2014年中国60个大中城市的相关数据进行实证检验,考察我国城市房价差异对产业结构的影响。进一步地,将所选用的60个城市根据经济发展水平分为一线、二线和三线城市,分别建立面板数据模型进行分析,探究在不同经济区域下这种影响的异同。得到的结论为:城市房价差异会促使劳动力由第一产业向第二、第三产业转移,产值份额会由第二产业向第三产业转移,城市产业结构向着高级化、合理化方向转变。同时,经济越发达的地区城市房价差异对产业结构升级的影响作用越弱,在经济发展水平较低的地区城市房价差异对产业结构升级的影响作用更加显著。最后,针对处于不同经济区域的城市,因地制宜地提出房地产行业的调控政策建议,以期进一步带动产业结构调整和优化。在经济发展水平较高地区,抑制房价攀升,大力发展新兴产业;在经济发展水平中等地区,小幅提升房价水平,引进高素质人才,扶持中高端产业;在经济发展水平相对较低地区,加强城市建设,促进房价增长,同时做好外来企业承接工作,以期通过对城市房价的引导推进各地产业结构调整升级,促进区域经济的平稳健康发展。
[Abstract]:In the economic development in the "new normal" background, as our country economy can maintain rapid growth through the economic transition period of adjustment smoothly, "the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure has become one of the important problems of our government and enterprises. There are many factors affecting the industrial structure adjustment, such as technology progress, the change of consumption structure, labor and capital endowment changes and so on, and this paper will focus on the development of China's real estate industry. Since the 1998 housing reform, the real estate industry is the basic industry of our country economy. On the one hand, the wealth effect of rising house prices will stimulate consumption, in China to pull forward, on the other hand, the prosperity of the real estate market led to the development of the large number of upstream and downstream related industries, has spawned a large number of market demand, at the same time, the local real estate market The development has also made great contributions to the regional economic growth. The change in the prices affect China's economic growth and fluctuations at the same time, also have a direct or indirect impact on the industrial structure of our country. In 2008 before the financial crisis, the rapid growth of Chinese GDP relies heavily on Yu Xun speed high real estate market. But because of China's real estate market is not mature, the rapid development of a series of problems such as the birth and development of China's real estate market serious imbalance, regional differentiation serious, first-tier cities and some second tier city high prices, but three, four line city real estate inventory is serious, these phenomena also accelerated the adjustment of industrial structure in China. The imbalance in the current economic background, whether the government can through the regulation of the real estate market and the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure? Further, in the face of regional differentiation serious real Chinese The real estate market and different areas of the initial endowment, how to develop housing policy adjustment, the industrial structure adjustment in the property market at the same time to adjust and balance the area? To solve these problems, is undoubtedly help China's high, a new angle of view of industrial structure reform. Therefore, based on China's current real estate the status and the status quo of the industrial structure, analyzes the influence mechanism of city price differences on the adjustment of industrial structure, clarify the region prices influence path of industrial structure, and analyzes the similarities and differences between China's 60 large and medium-sized city in the impact strength, in order to put forward the corresponding suggestions for the adjustment of China's industrial structure upgrade. On the basis of the traditional center the edge of the Krugman model is introduced in the prices of factors and the theoretical derivation, the city price difference has the influence on the industrial structure of this proposition, and then build Vertical static panel data model, empirical data in 2001-2014 China 60 large and medium-sized city based on the effects of differences in city housing prices in China on the industrial structure. Further, the 60 city will be selected according to the level of economic development is divided into the first, second and three line city, were built to analyze the panel data model this, to explore the similarities and differences in different economic regions under the influence. The conclusion is: the price difference will lead to city labor force from the first industry to the second, third industrial transfer and output share will transfer from the second industry to the third industry, the city industrial structure to the higher level, the rationalization of the direction of change. At the same time, the difference of economic city area housing prices developed the effect on industrial structure upgrading effect is weak, the effect to the upgrading of industrial structure in the area between city prices relatively low level of economic development is more significant . finally, in different economic regions of the city, proposes the policy suggestion regulation of the real estate industry, in order to further promote the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure. In areas with higher level of economic development, housing prices rise, vigorously develop new industries; in the economic development level of medium, small increases in the price level, the introduction of high-quality talent support in the high-end industry; in the relatively low level of economic development, strengthen city construction, promote the growth of housing prices at the same time to undertake the work of foreign enterprises, in order to guide the city through prices promoting the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure, promote regional economic stability and healthy development.

【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23;F121.3

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