浙江省人口分布与经济发展的均衡性及其影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-01-06 13:02

本文关键词：浙江省人口分布与经济发展的均衡性及其影响因素分析　出处：《暨南大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济社会的快速发展，人民生活水平的大幅提高，诸多社会问题也随之接踵而来，且呈现日益严峻的态势。面临日益严峻的人口问题，建设人口均衡发展的经济社会逐步为国家所重视和倡导。只有全面、正确地认识了人口与经济增长的关系，才能优化配置，创造更大层面上的聚集效益、规模效益，把握区域人口与经济、资源以及环境之间的协调发展，最终实现全方位的可持续健康发展。本文在简要分析浙江省近年来人口分布和经济发展现状的基础上，通过测算人口重心和经济重心的变动轨迹和建立耦合度模型，对浙江省各个行政区域的人口分布与经济发展的均衡性进行深入的研究。进而，，为了对区域人口分布提供科学的政策建议，本文又借助面板数据模型，对影响区域人口分布的主要因素进行拟合、测度。通过分析得到，近年来浙江省各个行政区域的人口分布和经济发展存在一定程度的偏离，舟山市的经济发展远远快于人口规模，而温台地区由于人口的过度流入导致经济聚集度低于人口聚集度，全省的其他地区则呈现人口分布和经济发展相协调的良好状态。在此基础上，本文又通过个体固定效应模型，发现卫生水平、科技专利水平和经济发展水平是影响区域人口分布的三个主要因素。最后，以上述结果为依据，对制定适应本区域经济发展水平的人口政策提供相应的建议。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of our country's economy and society, the people's living standard has been greatly improved, and a lot of social problems have followed. Only by comprehensively and correctly understanding the relationship between population and economic growth can we optimize the allocation and create a greater level of collective benefits. In order to realize the sustainable and healthy development, we should grasp the coordinated development of regional population, economy, resources and environment. Based on a brief analysis of the population distribution and economic development in Zhejiang Province in recent years, this paper calculates the changing trajectory of population center of gravity and center of economic gravity and establishes a model of coupling degree. In order to provide scientific policy recommendations for regional population distribution, this paper makes use of panel data model to study the balance of population distribution and economic development in every administrative region of Zhejiang Province. The main factors affecting the regional population distribution are fitted and measured. Through the analysis, in recent years, the population distribution and economic development of various administrative regions in Zhejiang Province have deviated to a certain extent, the economic development of Zhoushan City is much faster than the population scale. However, due to the excessive inflow of population in Wentai area, the degree of economic aggregation is lower than that of population concentration, while other areas of the province present a good state of coordination between population distribution and economic development. Through the individual fixed effect model, it is found that the health level, the level of science and technology patent and the level of economic development are the three main factors affecting the regional population distribution. Finally, based on the above results. To formulate the population policy to adapt to the level of economic development in the region to provide corresponding recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：C921;C924.24

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