天津市义务教育学龄人口规模预测与分析——基于多因素灰色预测模型和人口推算法

发布时间：2018-01-14 10:00

本文关键词：天津市义务教育学龄人口规模预测与分析——基于多因素灰色预测模型和人口推算法　出处：《西南师范大学学报(自然科学版)》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：天津市义务教育采取就近入学的原则,而学龄人口规模与基础教育设施的关系最为密切和直接,因此对义务教育学龄人口规模的预测将影响教育资源的布局与发展.基于灰色GM(1,1)预测模型和线性回归原理,构建人均教育消费支出、义务教育生师比、人均GDP等7个因素影响下的义务教育非户籍学龄人口规模多因素灰色预测模型,再运用推算法获得相应的户籍学龄人口规模.结果显示2014-2020年天津市义务教育非户籍学龄人口规模与区域经济发展存在着耦合性.同时,由于第四次人口生育高峰的影响,天津市"十三五"后期将会出现义务教育需求的快速增长,需要提前做好教育资源的规划与布局.
[Abstract]:Compulsory education in Tianjin is based on the principle of nearby enrollment, and the relationship between the size of school-age population and basic education facilities is most close and direct. Therefore, the prediction of the size of compulsory education school-age population will affect the distribution and development of educational resources. Based on the grey GM-1) prediction model and linear regression principle, the per capita educational consumption expenditure is constructed. Under the influence of seven factors, such as the ratio of compulsory education students to teachers and GDP per capita, the grey prediction model of the scale of non-household registration population of compulsory education is multi-factor grey prediction model. The result shows that there is a coupling between the scale of compulsory education non-household school age population and regional economic development in Tianjin from 2014-2020. Due to the influence of 4th population growth peaks, the demand for compulsory education in Tianjin will increase rapidly in the late period of the 13th Five-Year Plan, and the planning and layout of educational resources should be done well in advance.
【作者单位】：天津广播电视大学;天津广播电视大学津北学院;天津广播电视大学教务处;
【基金】：天津市教育科学“十二五”规划重点课题项目(CEXⅣ1002)
【分类号】：C924.2
【正文快照】： 人口是影响经济社会发展的一个重要因素.学龄人口一般是指常住人口中达到规定入学年龄的人口.学龄人口受出生、死亡、迁移和户籍政策、教育政策以及经济社会发展等诸多因素影响,呈现波动变化.学龄人口和教育基础设施承载能力直接相关.教育基础设施承载能力要适应学龄人口变化,

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