青海省交通运输业对经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-21 12:19

本文关键词： 青海省交通运输业经济增长回归分析投入产出分析　出处：《西北民族大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：交通运输业是社会经济的基础性产业,它的发展与地区经济增长之间相互联系、相互影响。因此,二者之间的良性互动对区域经济增长具有重要意义。青海省是西部地区的民族省份之一,随着西部大开发及"一带一路"战略的推进,综合分析研究青海省交通运输业与经济发展之间的关系,对于促进后进地区的快速发展具有重要的现实意义。本文深入立足于青海省,对青海省交通运输业和经济增长现状进行了分析。在了解二者发展现状的基础上运用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、多元回归分析和投入产出法对交通运输业对经济增长的影响进行了分析。利用协整检验对交通运输业各子系统(公路运输、铁路运输和航空运输)与经济增长的关系进行了检验。结果表明:青海省交通运输业与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系。通过多元回归分析得出:公路、铁路、航空三种运输方式中公路运输对经济增长的贡献性最大,公路仍然是青海省主要的运输方式。利用投入产出法对交通运输业在青海省经济中的地位、作用以及与其他产业的关联和波及效果进行研究。从前向关联和后向关联的实证分析可以看出,交通运输业极大地推动了青海省第二、第三产业的发展,特别是第二产业对交通运输业有着较高的依存度。从直接消耗系数和完全消耗系数的分析结果可以得出:交通运输产业对金融和燃气的生产和供应两个产业部门有较高的依存度,且交通运输业对其他产业部门的间接消耗大于直接消耗;从影响力系数结果可以得出:交通运输业的影响力系数接近于社会平均影响水平,但低于社会平均影响水平;从感应度系数结果可以得出:交通运输业受其他产业的需求感应程度低于社会平均感应度水平。从实证分析结果不难得出,青海省交通运输业与经济增长之间还未形成良性互动,交通运输业对经济增长的刺激作用不明显。据此结合青海省交通运输业的发展现状及外部社会环境,提出相关对策建议。
[Abstract]:Transportation industry is the basic industry of social economy, its development and regional economic growth are interrelated and influence each other. The benign interaction between the two plays an important role in regional economic growth. Qinghai Province is one of the ethnic provinces in the western region, along with the development of the western region and the promotion of the "Belt and Road" strategy. Comprehensive analysis and study of the relationship between transportation and economic development in Qinghai Province, to promote the rapid development of backward areas has an important practical significance. This paper analyzes the current situation of transportation and economic growth in Qinghai Province. Based on the understanding of the current situation of development of the two, the use of co-integration test, Granger causality test. Multiple regression analysis and input-output method are used to analyze the impact of transportation on economic growth. The relationship between railway and air transportation and economic growth is tested. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between transportation and economic growth in Qinghai Province. Among the three modes of air transportation, road transportation contributes the most to the economic growth, and highway is still the main mode of transportation in Qinghai Province. The input-output method is used to analyze the status of transportation industry in Qinghai economy. From the empirical analysis of forward correlation and backward correlation, we can see that transportation has greatly promoted the development of the second and third industries in Qinghai Province. Especially the secondary industry has a high degree of dependence on transportation. From the analysis of direct consumption coefficient and complete consumption coefficient, it can be concluded that:. Transportation industry has a high degree of dependence on the production and supply of finance and gas. The indirect consumption of transportation to other industrial sectors is greater than that of direct consumption. From the result of influence coefficient, it can be concluded that the influence coefficient of transportation industry is close to the average social influence level, but lower than the social average influence level; From the result of sensitivity coefficient, we can conclude that the demand induction degree of transportation industry is lower than the average social sensitivity level, and it is not difficult to get the result from the empirical analysis. There is no positive interaction between transportation and economic growth in Qinghai Province, and the stimulating effect of transportation on economic growth is not obvious. Therefore, combined with the development of transportation industry in Qinghai Province and the external social environment. Put forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：西北民族大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127;F512.7

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