基于不确定性理论的滨州市高新区综合水资源配置研究

发布时间：2018-01-22 13:17

本文关键词： 水资源管理优化模型区间参数机会约束随机分析水环境容量　出处：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：由于工业社会活动的影响,区域水资源问题成为人们关注的课题,给社会环境的协调可持续发展带来严峻的挑战,所以,开展区域水资源规划对现代区域社会经济发展起着至关重要的作用。然则,水资源系统本身特有的不确定性、参数之间互动关系复杂,对传统的确定性优化理论是很大的挑战。因此,本文研究目的便是把不确定规划方法运用到水资源系统优化中来处理这种不确定性和复杂性。在本文中,针对滨州市高新区在发展过程中所要面对的水资源短缺及水环境污染的问题,在蒙特卡洛模拟(MonteCarlo)技术的基础上,首先创建了不确定区间-机会约束线性优化模型(ICCP)和。结果表明,ICCP可以很好地反映系统的复杂性和不确定性,得到不同环境风险水平下的决策方案,帮助决策者权衡水环境风险与区域经济之间的关系,为相关部门制定合理的经济、环境与社会可持续发展战略规划提供理论与技术支持。现实中首先确定各行业供水量的目标值,各行业根据该目标值制定未来的发展规模,但是,水资源分配不一定都能够按照计划进行,受诸多因素的影响有时候会得不到足够的分配量,此时面临一个不能够满足需要的惩罚,ICCP对此是无能为力的,若水量是已知分布的随机变量,两阶段优化模型(TSP)能够很好地解决此问题。因此,基于对ICCP模型结果的分析以及模型存在的问题,构建了基于水环境容量的两阶段随机水资源优化模型(ICCTSP)。在两阶段(TSP)中,第一阶段：在随机事件发生之前,根据经验制定一个决策；第二阶段：当随机事件发生之后,考虑到会引起的惩罚,修正之前制定的经验性决策,重新寻求使得系统最优化的决策。ICCTSP能更好的处理水量的随机性问题,其结合了更多的不确定理论,能够处理多重不确定性问题,多种不确定性理论的结合是未来不确定性优化的发展方向。
[Abstract]:Due to the influence of industrial social activities, regional water resources problem has become a topic of concern to people, which brings severe challenges to the coordinated and sustainable development of the social environment. The development of regional water resources planning plays an important role in the development of modern regional society and economy. However, the uncertainty of water resources system itself and the interaction between parameters are complex. It is a great challenge to the traditional deterministic optimization theory. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to apply the uncertain programming method to the optimization of water resources system to deal with the uncertainty and complexity. In view of the problems of water resources shortage and water environment pollution in the development of Binzhou High-tech Zone, based on Monte Carlo simulation technology. Firstly, the uncertain interval-opportunity constrained linear optimization model (ICCPP) and the results show that the ICCP can well reflect the complexity and uncertainty of the system. The decision scheme under different environmental risk levels is obtained to help decision makers to balance the relationship between water environmental risk and regional economy, and to formulate a reasonable economy for relevant departments. The strategic planning of environmental and social sustainable development provides theoretical and technical support. In reality, the target value of water supply for each industry is first determined, and the future development scale of each industry is determined according to the target value, however. The allocation of water resources may not always be carried out according to the plan, and sometimes the allocation will not be sufficient due to many factors. At this time, faced with a punishment that cannot meet the needs, ICCP is powerless to do so. If the water quantity is a random variable of known distribution, the two-stage optimization model can solve this problem very well. Therefore, based on the analysis of the results of the ICCP model and the problems existing in the model. A two-stage stochastic water resources optimization model based on the water environment capacity is constructed. In the two-stage TSPs, the first stage: before the random events occur, a decision is made according to the experience; The second stage: when random events occur, take into account the penalties that will be caused, and revise the previous empirical decisions. It can deal with the stochastic problem of water quantity better, which combines more uncertainty theory, and can deal with multiple uncertainty problems. The combination of uncertainty theory is the development direction of uncertainty optimization in the future.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213.4

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