基于贸易视角的中老泰经济走廊建设的研究

发布时间：2018-01-23 00:43

本文关键词： 经济走廊国际通道贸易贸易引力模型　出处：《昆明理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2002年亚洲银行发起的大湄公河次区域(GMS)经济合作机制,以及2010年中国—东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)的正式成立,对推进亚洲区域经济一体化进程具有重要的里程碑意义。目前,中国同中东、欧洲和南亚的贸易往来,主要有两条路可走,即陆上“丝绸之路”和海上“丝绸之路”。现阶段,海上“丝绸之路”需经过东南部地区的港口,沿南海绕道马六甲海峡才能进入印度洋。若GMS框架下的中老泰经济走廊建成,再连通东西经济走廊至缅甸的港口毛淡棉,则中国对中东、欧洲和南亚的贸易往来可以直接通过昆曼公路和东西经济走廊,直达毛淡棉港进入印度洋,这样不仅可以带动我国西南地区和中南半岛经济的发展,在战时还可以打破马六甲海峡对我国的海上航道封锁。因此,在区域经济一体化的背景下,为落实我国“一带一路”战略和加强周边外交,需要对GMS框架下的中老泰经济走廊的发展现状、建设中存在的问题进行梳理和分析,并在此基础上提出一些建设该经济走廊的对策建议。本文从亚洲开发银行发起的GMS区域“三纵两横”五条经济走廊背景出发,选取其中一条纵向的中老泰经济走廊作为研究对象,基于双边贸易的视角,分为四个部分由浅入深、由定性到定量,对该条经济走廊的建设进行了较全面的分析。第一部分,通过对国内外学者相关文献的解读分析,初步形成了本文的研究方法:先通过国际通道相关理论对中老泰经济走廊的发展现状进行定性及定量分析,再从贸易视角出发利用贸易引力模型对经济走廊建设中相关变量之间的关系进行建模分析;第二部分,利用国际通道的区位理论、点轴开发理论和产业结构层次演替理论从自然区位、地理区位和交通区位三个角度分析了走廊沿线国家(地区)的复合区位条件、可选择的初步发展模式、产业结构演替过程、目前的经济发展水平和所处的工业化阶段,并进一步分析了区域内相关国家(地区)之间的贸易现状,还对中老泰经济走廊建设存在的问题进行了探讨;第三部分,在传统贸易引力模型的基础上,利用走廊沿线相关国家(地区)的贸易流量作为被解释变量,选取贸易双方的经济规模、人口数量、“空间距离”、是否相邻、非农产业比重等作为解释变量建立计量经济模型进行实证分析,研究结果表明,对贸易产生正向效应的因素有:贸易双方的经济规模、人口数量、贸易双方拥有共同的边界(地缘优势)以及贸易双方之间的产业优势互补,而贸易双方的“距离”则对贸易产生负向效应;第四部分,综合前文的理论和实证分析,我们结合具体情况对建设中老泰经济走廊的发展途径给予相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In 2002, the Asian Bank launched the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) Economic Cooperation Mechanism, and the CAFTA-China-ASEAN Free Trade area (CAFTAA) was established in 2010. At present, China's trade relations with the Middle East, Europe and South Asia have two main routes to go. That is, the "Silk Road" on land and the "Silk Road" on the sea. At this stage, the "Silk Road" at sea has to pass through ports in the southeast. If the Sino-Laotai Economic Corridor under the GMS framework is completed and then connects the East-West Economic Corridor to the Myanmar port of Maotam, then China will have access to the Middle East. The trade between Europe and South Asia can enter the Indian Ocean directly through the Kunman Road and the East-West Economic Corridor, which can not only promote the economic development of Southwest China and Indochina Peninsula. Therefore, in the context of regional economic integration, in order to implement our "Belt and Road" strategy and strengthen peripheral diplomacy. It is necessary to sort out and analyze the current situation and problems in the construction of the Sino-Lao-Thai economic corridor under the framework of GMS. On this basis, some countermeasures and suggestions for the construction of the economic corridor are put forward. This paper starts from the background of "three columns, two sides" and five economic corridors in the GMS region initiated by the Asian Development Bank. Select one of the vertical Sino-Lao Thai economic corridor as the research object, based on the perspective of bilateral trade, divided into four parts from shallow to deep, from qualitative to quantitative. The construction of this economic corridor has carried on the more comprehensive analysis. The first part, through the domestic and foreign scholars related literature interpretation and analysis. Preliminary formed the research method of this paper: first through the international channel related theory to the development of the Sino-Lao-Thai Economic Corridor qualitative and quantitative analysis. Then from the perspective of trade, we use the trade gravity model to model and analyze the relationship between the related variables in the construction of economic corridor. The second part uses the location theory of international channel, the theory of point-axis development and the theory of hierarchy succession of industrial structure from natural location. Geographical location and traffic location analysis of the corridor along the country (region) of the complex location conditions, the choice of the initial development model, industrial structure succession process. At present, the level of economic development and industrialization stage, and further analysis of the status quo of trade among countries (regions) in the region, and also discussed the existing problems in the construction of Sino-Lao-Thai economic corridor; The third part, on the basis of the traditional trade gravity model, uses the trade flow of the relevant countries (regions) along the corridor as the explanatory variable, selects the economic scale, the population quantity and the "space distance" of both sides of the trade. Whether adjacent, non-agricultural industry proportion as an explanatory variable to establish an econometric model for empirical analysis, the results show that the positive effects of trade factors are: the economic size of both sides of the trade, the number of population. Both sides of trade have common boundary (geographical advantage) and complementary industrial advantages between them, while the "distance" of both sides of trade has negative effect on trade. In the 4th part, synthesizing the theoretical and empirical analysis above, we give some policy suggestions on the development of the economic corridor in China and Thailand.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F113

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