河北省耕地土壤水资源承载力计算与评价

发布时间：2018-01-23 02:46

本文关键词： 耕地土壤水资源承载力多目标优化河北省指标体系阈值可变模糊　出处：《河北农业大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：河北省是我国水资源极度短缺的省份之一,在现状条件下全省水资源的缺口达到50~60亿m3。南水北调工程的实施后,虽然在一定程度上可以缓解水资源紧张局面,但不能完全解决河北省水资源短缺问题。另一方面,河北省有丰富的土壤水资源可以利用。根据河北省土壤水资源评价结果,全省一般年份可利用的土壤水资源为231亿m3,再加上170亿m3的灌溉水量,全省可利用的土壤水量约为401亿m3,数量可观。因此,在水资源严重短缺、农业用水紧张的情况下,合理开发利用土壤水资源,对保证粮食安全、提高农民生活水平、维持水资源可持续利用、维持良好的生态环境及促进河北省农业可持续发展意义重大。本文将对耕地土壤水资源承载力的概念和内涵进行界定,对河北省及7个土壤水资源分区、11个行政分区内耕地土壤水资源承载力进行计算、评价,主要研究成果如下:(1)本文将资源承载力的理论引入到土壤水资源的研究中,界定了耕地土壤水资源承载力的概念,即当耕地内土壤中水、肥、气、热等元素相互协调,在自然条件的一元模式(只考虑天然降水,如旱地农业、旱稻田等)或自然—人工灌溉的二元模式(考虑自然降水和灌溉,如水浇地及灌溉水田区域等)下,在一定社会发展阶段的经济水平和科学技术水平条件下,某一区域耕地内的土壤水资源能够持续支撑该地区农业种植业发展的能力;明确了耕地土壤水资源承载力的承载对象主要为农业种植业;分析了耕地土壤水资源承载力的承载模式、时空变化、利用形式、社会经济内涵和可持续性内涵;在阐述水资源承载力与土壤水资源承载力的异同基础上,论述了耕地土壤水资源承载力的可持续性、有限性、动态性、可调控性、对降水的依赖性,以及承载对象简单、承载模式多样等特性。(2)根据耕地土壤水资源承载力内涵和特点,建立耕地土壤水资源承载力的多目标计算模型。以农业经济产值最大、粮食总产量最大和农业用水比例最低分别建立目标函数,以农业种植结构、水资源、土壤水资源及其他作为约束条件,通过加权法建立综合目标函数,并采用线性规划方法对综合目标进行目标优化。(3)根据耕地土壤水资源承载力的特点及影响因素,建立耕地土壤水资源承载力评价指标体系,并确定评价指标的阈值及权重。指标体系由供水指标、用水指标、管理指标和效益指标共4个一级指标及17个二级指标构成。指标的阈值通过调查国家、省、市相关的政策、法规及规划、收集有关的国家规范或行业规范、参考发达国家或国内发达地区的发展水平、对相关年鉴统计数据回归分析并进行趋势外推及专家经验法等方法确定。为了详细描述耕地土壤水资源承载力的状态,本文根据农业节水技术发展水平将承载力分为一级、二级和三级,确定了每个级别指标等级区间,为耕地土壤水资源承载力的定量评价提供了标准。结合调查问卷的调研成果,采用二元比较模糊决策分析法确定各评价指标的权重。(4)应用耕地土壤水资源承载力计算模型对河北省耕地土壤水资源承载力计算。计算中考虑了2020年(近期)和2030年(远期)两个规划年,平水年(P=50%)和偏枯年(P=75%)两种降水频率,低、中、高三种节水技术水平,共建立12个方案。随后,采用模糊可变评价方法对河北省各个方案进行评价,确定每个方案中耕地土壤水资源承载力的等级。评价结果为:到2020年,各个耕地土壤水资源承载力方案都可以达到二级,属于“方案合格,能够适应于当地区域经济发展”,到2030年,平水年(P=50%)内的各个方案可达到一级,属于“方案良好,比较适应于当地区域经济发展”,偏枯年(P=75%)内各个方案仍属于二级,但较2020年有所提高。通过分析近期和远期的发展基础和条件,在保证河北省农业可持续发展背景下,提出河北省2020年(近期)和2030年(远期)的发展方案。(5)应用耕地土壤水资源承载力计算模型对7个土壤水资源分区及11个行政分区的承载力进行计算。计算中考虑了2020年(近期)和2030年(远期)两个规划年,平水年(P=50%)和偏枯年(P=75%)两种降水频率,对各土壤水资源分区内、各行政区的农业生产总值、粮食总产量、土壤水资源利用量、常规水资源利用量、灌溉面积及各类土壤水资源利用技术的发展面积进行计算及对比分析。(6)对河北省各县市土壤水资源量、土壤水资源利用量及利用潜力进行计算,在现有相关研究成果、经验以及种植方式基础上,对效果良好的技术和管理措施进行了分析和总结,从工程、管理和生物三方面提出了提高耕地土壤水资源承载力的措施。
[Abstract]:Hebei province is one of the severe shortage of water resources in our province, to implement 50~60 billion m3. water diversion project in the province's water resources under the current conditions of the gap, although to a certain extent, can alleviate the shortage of water resources situation, but can not completely solve the problem of shortage of water resources in Hebei province. On the other hand, Hebei province soil abundant water resources can make use of soil water resources in Hebei province. According to the evaluation results, the general year available soil water resources in the province is 23 billion 100 million m3, plus 17 billion m3 of irrigation water, soil water utilization in the province can be approximately 40 billion 100 million m3, a considerable number of. Therefore, in a serious shortage of water resources, agricultural water shortage under the condition of reasonable exploitation and utilization of soil water resources, to ensure food security, improve the living standards of farmers, to maintain the sustainable utilization of water resources, maintain good ecological environment and promote the sustainable development of agriculture in Hebei Province Of great significance. This paper defines the concept and connotation of the bearing capacity of soil water resources in Hebei Province, and 7 soil water resource zoning evaluation of 11 administrative regions in the farmland soil water resources carrying capacity is calculated, and the main research results are as follows: (1) the resources carrying capacity theory is introduced to study soil water resources, defines the concept of soil water resources carrying capacity of cultivated land, when the soil water in the cultivated land, fertilizer, gas, heat and other elements, an element model in natural conditions (including natural precipitation, such as dry farming, Paddyfield etc.) or natural - artificial irrigation mode of two yuan (consider the natural precipitation and irrigation, such as irrigation and irrigated paddy field area), to a certain stage of social development of the economic level and the level of science and technology under the condition of soil water resources in a region of cultivated land can continue to support agriculture in the region The ability for the development of the industry; bearing object clear soil water resources carrying capacity of cultivated land is the main agricultural crop; analysis of soil water resources carrying capacity of cultivated land, temporal and spatial variation, the social economic form, connotation and meaning of sustainability; differences in foundation of water resources carrying capacity and water resources carrying capacity of the soil and discusses the sustainability of soil water resources carrying capacity of cultivated land is limited, dynamic, adjustable, dependent on precipitation, as well as carrying objects of simple bearing pattern diversity. (2) according to soil water resources carrying capacity connotation and characteristics, the establishment of multi-objective soil water resources carrying capacity of cultivated land the maximum calculation model. An agricultural economy value, the total grain yield maximum and the proportion of agricultural water minimum functions are established respectively, planting structure, agricultural water resources, soil water and other resources as constraints, To establish a comprehensive objective function by weighting method, and by using the linear programming method for multi-objective optimization of comprehensive target. (3) according to the characteristics and influencing factors of soil water resources carrying capacity, the establishment of farmland soil water resources bearing capacity evaluation index system, and determine the threshold value and the weight of evaluation index. The index system consists of water supply index, water index management index and benefit index, a total of 4 first grade indexes and 17 level two indexes. The index threshold through the investigation of country, province, city related policies, regulations and planning, collection of national standard or industry related regulations, development level of developed countries or developed areas in China, the related statistical yearbook regression analysis and determine the trend extrapolation and expert experience method. In order to soil water resources carrying capacity of cultivated land is described in detail, based on the development of agricultural water-saving technology level will be bearing The force is divided into Grade A, grade two and grade three, determining each index grade level range, provides a standard for quantitative evaluation of bearing capacity of soil water resources. Combined with the research results of the questionnaire, using two element fuzzy decision analysis method to determine the weights of evaluation indexes. (4) the calculation model of soil water cultivated land resources in Hebei province bearing capacity calculation of bearing capacity of soil water resources. Application of land considered in 2020 (recent) and 2030 (forward) two year plan, 2002 (P=50%) and dry years (P=75%) of two kinds of precipitation frequency, low, high, three kinds of water-saving technology, a total of 12 a scheme. Then, using the variable fuzzy evaluation method to evaluate Hebei province each scheme, determine the soil water resources carrying capacity of cultivated land in each program level. The evaluation results are: by 2020, all can reach two level soil water resource carrying capacity of cultivated land is different, In the scheme of "qualified, able to adapt to the economic development of the region", to 2030, 2002 (P=50%) in each scheme can reach a level, "a good solution, belonging to adapt to the economic development of the region, dry years (P=75%) in each scheme still belongs to the two level, but has increased compared to 2020 through the analysis of development basis and conditions of short-term and long-term, in order to ensure the sustainable development of agriculture in Hebei Province under the background of Hebei Province, 2020 (recent) and 2030 (forward) development plan. (5) bearing capacity calculation model of 7 soil water resource zoning and 11 administrative divisions of the calculation of bearing capacity of soil water application of land resources. In the calculations of 2020 (recent) and 2030 (forward) two year plan, 2002 (P=50%) and dry years (P=75%) of two kinds of precipitation frequency, the soil water resource zoning in the administrative areas of agricultural GDP, total grain output The amount, quantity and utilization of soil water resources, conventional water resources utilization, analysis and calculation and comparison of irrigation area and utilization of soil water resources of various types of technology development area. (6) on soil water resources in Hebei Province, soil water resources utilization and utilization potential are calculated in the existing related research results and experience on the basis of planting methods, effective technology and management measures are analyzed and summarized from the project, proposed to improve the bearing capacity of soil water resources land management measures and three biological aspects.

【学位授予单位】：河北农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：S152.7

【参考文献】