京津冀经济周期同步性研究

发布时间：2018-02-24 23:07

本文关键词： 京津冀协同发展经济周期同步性政策建议　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经济周期的同步性是衡量区域协同发展的综合性指标,因此研究经济周期同步性对于一国宏观经济政策的制定意义深远。目前,国内外学者的研究主要集中在国家与国家之间经济周期的同步性上,也有部分学者针对某一个国家的区域经济周期同步性进行研究,但后者的研究大多数是基于全国所有区域的角度,并没有针对某一个具体的区域。因此,本文尝试从具体的区域——京津冀区域出发,对经济周期同步性进行研究。本文选取我国1978-2015年间的经济数据,采用HP滤波方法和马尔科夫区制转移模型对京津冀三地区经济周期同步性进行实证研究,结合京津冀经济发展的现状以及同步性的现实条件,揭示京津冀三地经济周期的区制特征以及经济周期的同步程度。研究结果表明:第一,京津冀三地经济周期较为同步。主要变现为京津冀经济周期同步性系数较大并且两两之间较为接近,经济增长阶段也大致相同,三地经济周期都具有不对称性,均是“扩张期”的持续期较长。第二,京津冀经济周期同步具有一定差异性,其中河北省和北京市的同步性较弱,北京市和天津市的同步性较强。主要表现为:从京津冀地区经济周期阶段划分来看,北京市和天津市的经济周期阶段大体一致,而河北省的经济周期阶段略有不同,其周期长度较短,以及对京津冀区制的划分,可以得出京津的“扩张期”较长,河北省的“扩张期”较短。第三,京津冀地区和全国的经济周期同步性较强。主要表现为:根据经济周期阶段的划分,二者较为相近,并且波动幅度均较大;测算出的经济周期同步系数也较大,接近为1。本文基于以上实证的结论以及结合京津冀经济发展的现状,提出以下几点建议:第一:应该优化河北省的产业结构,提高在第三产业中的投资比例。第二,应该努力加大向河北省政策倾斜的力度,构建京津冀协同发展的财政机制。第三,应该减少京津冀地区经济周期的大幅波动,促进经济周期的平稳运行。
[Abstract]:The synchronism of economic cycle is a comprehensive index to measure regional coordinated development. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the synchronism of economic cycle for the formulation of macroeconomic policy in a country. The researches of domestic and foreign scholars mainly focus on the synchronism of economic cycles between countries, and some scholars also study the synchronism of regional economic cycles of a certain country. However, most of the research on the latter is based on the angle of all regions in the country, and it is not aimed at a specific region. Therefore, this paper tries to start from the specific region-Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. This paper selects the economic data from 1978 to 2015 in China, adopts HP filtering method and Markov region system transfer model to make an empirical study on the synchronism of economic cycle in the three regions of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. Combined with the present situation of the economic development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the realistic conditions of synchronism, this paper reveals the regional characteristics of the three economic cycles of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the degree of synchronization of the economic cycles. The results show that: first, The economic cycles of the three places of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are more synchronous. The main realization is that the synchronicity coefficient of the economic cycles of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is relatively large and close to each other, and the economic growth stage is roughly the same, and the economic cycles in the three places are all asymmetrical. Second, the synchronism of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic cycle is different to a certain extent, and the synchronism between Hebei and Beijing is weak. The synchronization between Beijing and Tianjin is relatively strong. The main manifestations are as follows: according to the division of the economic cycle stages in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the economic cycle stages of Beijing and Tianjin are roughly the same, while the economic cycle stages in Hebei Province are slightly different. The period is short, and the division of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region system shows that the "expansion period" in Beijing and Tianjin is longer, and the "expansion period" in Hebei Province is shorter. Third, The economic cycles in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and in the whole country are in strong synchronism. The main manifestations are: according to the division of the economic cycle stages, the two are relatively close, and the amplitude of fluctuation is large; the measured economic cycle synchronization coefficient is also larger. Based on the above conclusions and the current situation of economic development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei province, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: first, we should optimize the industrial structure of Hebei Province and increase the proportion of investment in the tertiary industry. Efforts should be made to increase the inclination to the policies of Hebei Province and to build a fiscal mechanism for the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. Thirdly, the sharp fluctuations of the economic cycle in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region should be reduced and the smooth operation of the economic cycle should be promoted.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127

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