1992-2013年京津冀地区经济发展失衡的溢出效应

发布时间：2018-03-02 04:09

本文关键词： 经济发展失衡区域协同发展外溢效应 DMSP/OLS夜间灯光 GDP 京津冀　出处：《经济问题探索》2016年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：20世纪90年代以来京津冀地区经济发展失衡一直制约着区域可持续发展,京津冀协同发展逐步成为社会共识。本文综合DMSP/OLS夜间灯光和可比GDP构建地区生产总值指数以量化评估区域经济发展水平,并分别从失衡溢出特征(采用增量空间自相关分析和多距离空间聚类分析)和外溢效用距离(SDM空间计量分析)探讨经济发展失衡的溢出效应,量化评估经济发展热点的正向外溢和经济发展冷点的负向外溢。结果表明,(1)不同评估尺度下京津冀地区经济失衡溢出都有总体相似的时间阶段性特征和空间地域性特征,先呈显著集聚后趋于离散,大致形成1992-1999年和2000-2013年2个时段与60km和100km左右为界3个地段。1992-2000年不断显化的经济失衡在2000年以来不断弱化。2000年以后区县区划对区域经济失衡趋于加剧。(2)经济热点的正向溢出和经济冷点的负向溢出有明显差异,经济冷点负向溢出距离约为130km,120km距离内的经济热点有明显虹吸效应,正向溢出效应并不显著。交通等基础设施网络不断健全,区域虹吸效应距离从20世纪90年代的95km外延至21世纪初的115km左右。
[Abstract]:Since 1990s, the imbalance of economic development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has been restricting the regional sustainable development. The coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has gradually become a social consensus. This paper combines DMSP/OLS night lights and comparable GDP to construct regional gross domestic product index to quantitatively evaluate the level of regional economic development. The spillover effect of economic development imbalance is discussed from the characteristics of unbalanced spillover (using incremental spatial autocorrelation analysis and multi-distance spatial clustering analysis) and spillover utility distance SDM spatial econometric analysis. The positive spillover of economic development hot spots and the negative spillover of economic development cold point are quantitatively evaluated. The results show that the economic imbalance spillovers in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region have similar temporal and spatial characteristics under different evaluation scales. At first, it is obvious agglomeration, then it tends to be discrete. From 1992 to 1999 and from 2000 to 2013, the economic imbalance has been weakened since 2000. After 2000, the regional and county divisions tend to aggravate the regional economic imbalance. There are obvious differences between positive spillover and negative spillover of economic cold point. The economic hot spots with negative spillover distance of about 130 km / m have siphon effect, but the positive spillover effect is not significant. The distance of regional siphon effect is from 95km on 1990s to 115km at the beginning of 21th century.
【作者单位】：北京大学;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“中国特大城市多中心空间发展的模式、效应及动力机制——多城市比较和实证”(41371005),项目负责人:孙铁山北京市科技计划课题(Z151100003115039),项目负责人:李国平
【分类号】：F127

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