前瞻性货币政策及在我国货币政策中的检验

发布时间：2018-03-02 05:35

本文关键词： 前瞻性货币政策货币政策规则泰勒规则　出处：《河北大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：目前包括美国、日本、英国、新西兰以及欧元区等在内的较多国家和地区都对具有前瞻性的货币政策进行了实践。前瞻性货币政策之所以在较多国家得到实践,是因为它能够在某些方面对传统货币政策进行改善,如在解决货币政策动态不一致问题上,解决货币政策时滞性问题上以及解决低利率下限约束问题上都卓有成效。2012年后我国宏观经济开始步入“新常态”,产出增长由高速转入中高速,同时面临着产业结构失衡、区域经济结构失调以及收入结构失衡等多重结构性问题。此外,我们也注意到央行存贷款基准利率也降至改革开放后的历史低位,传统货币政策的作用空间受到局限,因此结合前瞻性货币政策在国外的实践以及我国的客观国情,本文认为有必要对前瞻性货币政策进行研究。文章第一部分对本文的写作背景进行了说明,并对国内外相关的研究成果进行了梳理分析。在文章第二部分首先对前瞻性货币政策进行了概述,主要包括前瞻性货币政策的概念、前瞻性货币政策的分类以及前瞻性货币政策的作用机制;然后对前瞻性货币政策理论基础进行了分析;文章第三部分对前瞻性货币政策规则进行了理论说明;在第四部分对前瞻性在主要发达国家的实践进行了归纳。文章第三部分首先对我国改革开放后的货币政策进行了梳理,然后对在我国实施前瞻性货币政策的必要性和可行性进行了分析。文章第四部分通过构建附加利率平滑的前瞻性货币政策反应函数,对我国货币政策的前瞻性进行了实证检验,发现我国货币政策确实存在对通货膨胀和产出缺口的前瞻性。本章最后部分根据实证检验结果从提高利率对通货膨胀反应程度、进一步健全利率调控体系、推进货币政策向价格型转变、提高货币政策透明度以及将前瞻性泰勒规则纳入我国货币政策框架五个方面对进一步完善我国前瞻性货币政策给出了建议。
[Abstract]:At present, more countries and regions, including the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, New Zealand and the euro zone, have carried out forward-looking monetary policies. The reason that forward-looking monetary policy has been put into practice in more countries is that. Because it can improve traditional monetary policy in some ways, such as addressing inconsistencies in monetary policy dynamics, After 2012, China's macro-economy began to enter the "new normal", the output growth changed from high to medium high speed, and at the same time, the industrial structure was out of balance. Regional economic structure imbalance and income structure imbalance are many structural problems. In addition, we also note that the central bank's benchmark interest rate on deposits and loans has also dropped to historic lows since the reform and opening up, and that the role of traditional monetary policy is limited. Therefore, combined with the practice of forward-looking monetary policy in foreign countries and the objective situation of our country, this paper holds that it is necessary to study the forward-looking monetary policy. In the second part of the article, the author summarizes the forward-looking monetary policy, including the concept of forward-looking monetary policy. The classification of forward-looking monetary policy and the mechanism of forward-looking monetary policy; then the theoretical basis of forward-looking monetary policy is analyzed. In the 4th part, the author summarized the forward-looking practice in the major developed countries. The third part of the article first combed the monetary policy after China's reform and opening up. Then it analyzes the necessity and feasibility of implementing forward-looking monetary policy in China. Part 4th, by constructing a smooth forward-looking monetary policy response function with additional interest rates, empirically tests the forward-looking monetary policy in China. It is found that China's monetary policy is indeed forward-looking in terms of inflation and output gap. The last part of this chapter is based on the results of empirical tests to improve the interest rate response to inflation and further improve the interest rate control system. Some suggestions on how to further perfect China's forward-looking monetary policy are put forward from five aspects: promoting the transformation of monetary policy to price type, enhancing the transparency of monetary policy and incorporating the forward-looking Taylor rule into the framework of China's monetary policy.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F822.0

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