社会保障促进了区域经济增长吗——基于时空效应及分解的动态空间面板模型分析

发布时间：2018-03-03 16:23

本文选题：社会保障　切入点：区域经济增长　出处：《华中科技大学学报(社会科学版)》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文利用2001年-2014年我国31个省份社会保障支出数据,基于社会保障规模和结构视角,引入时间滞后、空间滞后和时空滞后因素构建动态空间面板模型,分析社会保障对区域经济增长的时空效应,并对时空效应进行偏微分分解。实证研究发现,我国区域经济增长不仅存在正的空间依赖性和正的时间依赖性,还存在负的时空依赖性。社会保障规模和结构对区域经济增长的长期空间效应和短期间接效应并不显著,社会保障规模、社会保险规模和社会优抚规模对区域经济增长均具有较为显著的短期负向直接效应。控制变量中,人力资本和城镇化率对区域经济增长分别具有短期正向和负向的直接效应,经济开放程度对区域经济增长具有短期负向直接效应和短期正向间接效应。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of social security expenditure from 2001 to 2014 in 31 provinces of China and from the perspective of scale and structure of social security, this paper introduces the factors of time lag, spatial lag and space-time lag to construct the dynamic spatial panel model. This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal effect of social security on regional economic growth, and decomposes the spatial-temporal effect by partial differential analysis. The empirical study shows that there are not only positive spatial dependence and positive temporal dependence on regional economic growth in China, but also positive temporal dependence. The long-term spatial effect and short-term indirect effect of the scale and structure of social security on regional economic growth are not significant. Both the scale of social insurance and the scale of social benefits have significant short-term negative direct effects on regional economic growth. In the control variables, human capital and urbanization rate have short-term positive and negative direct effects on regional economic growth, respectively. The degree of economic openness has short term negative direct effect and short term positive indirect effect on regional economic growth.
【作者单位】：青岛科技大学经济与管理学院;山东财经大学经济学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“新型城镇化背景下城乡社会保障非均衡及统筹发展路径研究”(15YJC790068) 山东省社科规划研究项目“山东省城乡社会保障非均衡及统筹发展路径研究”(14DJJJ03) 青岛市哲学社会科学规划项目“青岛市城乡社会保障非均衡及统筹发展路径研究”(QDSKL1601133)
【分类号】：F812.45

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