基于DEA方法的安徽省低碳经济发展研究

发布时间：2018-03-07 04:20

本文选题：低碳经济　切入点：DEA方法　出处：《安徽大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2003年英国政府在《能源白皮书》中第一次提出“低碳经济”的概念,即通过技术创新和完善相关的政策和措施,减少资源消耗、环境污染和温室气体排放。低碳经济以提高能源效率和改善清洁能源结构为根本内容。随着气候变化,能源日益枯竭,生态环境遭到破坏,世界各国经济都已经受到了严重的影响,发展低碳经济迫在眉睫。目前我国已经取代美国,成为世界上最大的能源消费国。在中国,短期内难以改变以煤炭为主导的能源结构,导致了能源短缺的局面,也产生了较高的碳排放量,不利于经济的可持续发展。随着全球气候变暖的进程日益加剧,发展低碳经济对于推动国家和区域的经济社会发展具有越来越重要的意义。对于安徽省来说,发展低碳经济,是调整产业结构、转变经济发展方式、优化能源结构、提高资源能源使用效率、保护生态环境的需要。本文分为六个部分。首先在第一部分提出研究背景、研究意义；接着对论文的主要研究内容及研究方法、创新点进行了说明。第二部分论述了低碳经济的相关理论,并对国内外对于低碳经济的研究进行了综述。第三部分是安徽省低碳经济发展的现状分析和碳排放量的测算,并分析了发展中存在的问题。安徽省近几年来在低碳经济发展方面已取得了积极的成效。高新技术产业和现代化服务业发展势头良好,全面启动国家技术创新工程试点工作,加快建设合芜蚌自主创新综合试验区,自主创新能力得到显著增强。在发展经济的同时,安徽省还继续加强生态环境建设,生态系统稳定性得到进一步增强,水利交通等基础设施建设方面也有所改善。“十一五”以来,安徽省能源产业发展迅速,能源产业规模不断壮大,能源供应能力显著提高,较好地支撑和保障了全省经济社会发展。此外安徽省在低碳技术发展方面也取得了一定的进展,低碳农业与碳汇林业发展良好,森林碳汇具有巨大的潜力。本文根据碳排放系数测算法,通过计算得到了安徽省2000年至2012年的碳排放量的数据,并计算出了碳排放强度。在看到安徽省良好的经济发展势头的同时,我们也应该注意到在发展低碳经济的过程中也存在着一些问题有待解决：清洁能源在能源结构中所占比重较低,煤炭等高碳能源为主的能源结构短时间内难以改变；高能耗产业在产业结构中所占比重较大,工业发展对能源的需求比较旺盛；经济增长对能源消费存在一定的依赖性；缺乏碳交易的市场环境,参与碳交易的能力较弱。在第四部分通过利用DEA方法的CCR和BCC模型,对安徽省低碳经济发展的情况进行了研究与分析,得到的结果说明安徽省发展低碳经济主要依靠的是劳动力、资金、能源等生产要素的投入,在未来的发展过程中需要进一步调整能源结构,推广清洁能源和可再生能源,控制碳排放量,优化产业结构,降低高碳产业比重,大力发展第三产业。在第五部分提出了相应的对策建议：开发清洁能源和新能源,改善能源结构；调整优化产业结构,大力发展低碳产业；加强自主创新与国际合作,推动低碳技术创新；建立碳交易市场,促进碳排放交易发展；开展交通建筑领域节能,提高能源利用效率；厉行节俭,推广低碳消费模式。在第六部分是论文的结论与展望,由于一些因素的限制,本文的研究存在一些不足,如本文对安徽省碳排放量的测算基于碳排放系数法,由于此测算方法计算出结果存在一定的误差,所以本文对安徽省碳排量的计算可能不够精确。因此,希望今后通过对温室气体测算方法进行系统研究,从而获得更准确的数据,也希望统计部门能够把碳排放量纳入统计的范围。希望在今后能够进一步地进行深入研究,为安徽省发展低碳经济,走绿色节能道路提供科学的依据。
[Abstract]:In 2003 the British government in the "energy white paper > first proposed the" low carbon economy "concept, namely the policies and measures through technological innovation and improve the relevant, reduce resource consumption, environmental pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Low carbon economy to improve energy efficiency and clean energy structure as the basic content. With climate change, energy depletion of the destruction of the ecological environment, the world economy has been seriously affected, the imminent development of low carbon economy. China has replaced the United States as the world's largest energy consumer. In China, the short term is difficult to change the coal dominated energy structure, leads to energy shortages, also had a higher carbon emissions, is not conducive to the sustainable development of economy. With the global climate warming is increasing, the development of low-carbon economy to promote national and regional classics The development of economy and society is more and more important. For Anhui Province, developing low carbon economy is the need to readjust the industrial structure, transform the economic development mode, optimize the energy structure, improve the efficiency of resource and energy use, and protect the ecological environment.
This paper is divided into six parts. In the first part puts forward the research background, research significance; then the main research contents and research methods, innovation points. The second part discusses the related theory of low carbon economy, and the domestic and foreign research on low carbon economy were reviewed. The third part is the calculation analysis of the current situation of carbon emission and low carbon economy development in Anhui Province, and analyzes the problems existing in the development of Anhui Province in recent years in the development of low carbon economy has achieved positive results. The high-tech industry and modern service industry good momentum of development, launched a comprehensive pilot work of national technological innovation projects accelerate the construction of a comprehensive test area of Hefei Wuhu Bengbu independent innovation, independent innovation ability has been significantly enhanced. In the development of economy at the same time, Anhui province also continue to strengthen the construction of ecological environment and ecological system stability to To further enhance the water conservancy infrastructure has improved. "Since 11th Five-Year", the energy industry in Anhui province has developed rapidly, the scale of energy industry growing, energy supply capacity significantly improved, better support and protection of the province's economic and social development. The Anhui province has made some progress in the development of low carbon the development of technology, agriculture and forestry low carbon sequestration, forest carbon sequestration has great potential. Based on the carbon emission coefficient measurement algorithm, obtained by calculating the carbon emissions in Anhui province from 2000 to 2012 data, and calculate the carbon emission intensity. At the sight of good momentum of economic development in Anhui Province, at the same time, we also we should pay attention to in the development of low-carbon economy in the process there are also some problems to be solved: clean energy accounted for a low proportion in the energy structure, coal and other high carbon energy Short period of time to change the main energy structure; high energy consumption industry accounted for the larger proportion in the industrial structure, the industrial development of energy demand relatively strong economic growth on energy consumption; there is a certain dependence; the lack of carbon trading market environment, participate in carbon trading ability is weak. In the fourth part of the CCR and BCC model using the DEA method, the development of low carbon economy in Anhui province were studied and analyzed, the results show that mainly depend on the development of low carbon economy in Anhui province is the labor force, capital, energy and other production inputs, in the future development process need to further adjust the energy structure, promote clean energy and renewable energy. The control of carbon emissions, optimize the industrial structure, reduce the proportion of high carbon industry, vigorously develop the third industry. In the fifth part puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions: the development of clean energy and new Energy, improve the energy structure; adjust and optimize the industrial structure, vigorously develop low carbon industries; strengthen the independent innovation and international cooperation, promote low-carbon technology innovation; establish a carbon trading market, to promote the development of carbon trading; carry out the traffic construction areas of energy efficiency, improve energy utilization efficiency; austerity, promotion of low-carbon consumption patterns in sixth. Is the conclusion and Prospect of this thesis, due to some factors, this study has some shortcomings, such as the calculation of carbon emissions in Anhui Province carbon emissions coefficient method based on the calculated results due to measurement errors, so the calculation of carbon emissions in Anhui province may not be accurate. Therefore, I hope in the future through a systematic research on the calculation method of greenhouse gas, so as to obtain more accurate data, the statistics department can also hope your carbon emissions into the scope of statistics. It is expected that further research will be further carried out in the future to provide a scientific basis for the development of low carbon economy and green energy saving road in Anhui.

【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.5

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