中韩自贸区双边经济效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-07 22:04

本文选题：中韩自贸区　切入点：经济效应　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着世界经济环境和国际关系的不断复杂,中国在发展中不断谋求新的思路,区域化经济发展布局已成为中国经济发展必不可少的战略,中韩自贸区在这样的背景下成立。中韩自贸协定是中国到目前为止涉及特定国家的贸易量最大、范围最广、自由度最高的自由贸易协定。本文在中韩自贸协定签署的背景下,对中韩自贸区的经济效应进行研究,首先分析中韩双边贸易发展的现状,阐释两国贸易联系的紧密性以及建立自贸区的基础和必要性,再对中韩自贸协定在货物贸易、服务贸易以及投资和规则领域的主要内容予以分析,指出中韩自贸区在发展中可能受到的影响以及未来的发展方向,接着从理论分析和实证分析两个层面入手,借助关税同盟理论以及GTAP模型进一步分析中韩自贸区的经济效应。理论分析方面对中韩自贸区带来的贸易转移效应、贸易创造效应、规模经济效应以及竞争效应分别进行分析;实证分析方面通过GTAP模型对于中韩自贸协定生效5年、10年、20年后的宏观经济、贸易状况以及产业结构分别进行模拟预测与对比分析,在运用商品关税作为冲击变量的同时,引入技术性贸易壁垒的变化情况,进一步阐述中韩自贸区建立带来的经济效应,从而得出中韩自贸区的建立能够带动两国经济的共同发展、实现互利共赢的结论,并为中国未来区域经济一体化与国际贸易体系的建设提供经验与借鉴。
[Abstract]:With the increasing complexity of the world economic environment and international relations, China is constantly seeking new ideas in its development. The regional economic development layout has become an indispensable strategy for China's economic development. The China-South Korea Free Trade Zone (FTA) was established in this context. The FTA between China and South Korea is by far the largest, broadest and most liberal free trade agreement involving specific countries in China. In the context of the signing of the FTA between China and South Korea, This paper studies the economic effects of China-South Korea Free Trade Zone. First, it analyzes the current situation of bilateral trade development between China and South Korea, explains the closeness of trade ties between the two countries and the foundation and necessity of establishing free trade zone, and then analyzes the Sino-South Korea Free Trade Agreement in goods trade. The main contents of trade in services and investment and rules are analyzed, and the possible impact on the development of China-Korea Free Trade Zone and its future development direction are pointed out. Then, it starts with theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. The trade transfer effect, trade creation effect, scale economy effect and competition effect brought about by the free trade zone between China and South Korea are analyzed in terms of the theory of customs union and the GTAP model. In the aspect of empirical analysis, the GTAP model is used to simulate and analyze the macro-economy, trade status and industrial structure 5, 10 and 20 years after the FTA comes into effect. At the same time, the commodity tariff is used as the impact variable. Introducing the change of technical barriers to trade, further expounding the economic effect brought by the establishment of China-South Korea Free Trade Zone, and drawing the conclusion that the establishment of free trade zone between China and South Korea can promote the common development of the two countries' economy and realize mutual benefit and win-win situation. It also provides experience and reference for China's future regional economic integration and the construction of international trading system.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.7;F753.126

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