东亚经济一体化条件下台湾参与泛北部湾经济合作的必要性与效应预测

发布时间：2018-03-24 01:09

本文选题：东亚经济一体化　切入点：泛北部湾经济合作　出处：《广西师范大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：自世界贸易组织(WTO)成立以来,区域经济合作发展速度越来越快,区域经济一体化趋势显著。区域经济合作最早发生于有地理优势的相邻国家或者地区之间,如欧盟(EU)、北美自由贸易区(NAFTA)、东盟(ASEAN)等,但是随着合作成员周边可用资源的逐渐减少以及合作理念的不断深化,超越单纯地理界线,进一步诠释地缘经济概念,不断拓展合作范围和方式,已经成为当前区域经济合作的新特点。东亚经济在世界经济中占有重要分量,东亚区域经济的一体化也是世界经济整合的部分,尽管东亚地区存在诸多的多样性和不确定性,再加上美国对整个东亚地区的影响,东亚区域经济一体化过程中存在一些障碍,但是其发展趋势已经不可逆转。台湾作为亚洲最发达、最富裕的地区之一,曾创造出巨大经济奇迹,也是19世纪全球经济一体化大浪潮下的受益者之一。而如今,台湾在东亚经济一体化过程中却面临“边缘化”危机,而且台湾也很难找到一个合适的介入点来融入这一进程。当然,造成这一局面的原因有很多,包括经济因素、政治因素,也包括外界因素和台湾自身因素。台湾如何摆脱“边缘化”困境,以合适的方式融入东亚经济一体化进程,值得研究。 “泛北部湾经济合作”构想自2006年提出以来,发展迅速。作为中国-东盟自由贸易区里重要次区域经济合作之一,泛北部湾经济合作对未来该区域乃至整个东亚地区经济的整体发展意义重大,而且,不同于东亚地区其他次区域经济合作,泛北部湾经济合作独有的“开放性”和“重海洋性”等诸多特点也适合台湾参与。因此,本文提出泛北部湾经济合作最有利于台湾参与东亚经济一体化,也是其未来参与东亚经济一体化进程的最佳路径。在CAFTA和ECFA的背景下,文章回顾了该领域相关的研究文献,然后以区域经济体化理论和次区域经济合作理论为基础展开论述：首先,论述东亚经济一体化趋势下台湾经济受到的影响以及泛北部湾经济合作对台湾参与东亚经济一体化的影响,初步给出台湾参与泛北部湾经济合作有宜于其融入东亚经济一体化进程的观点。基于此,文章采用贸易结合度指数、比较优势指数、贸易互补性指数的方法,预测了台湾参与到泛北部湾经济合作后可能会带来的经济效应以及这一过程可能会带来的其他外溢效应,并给出结论：随着东亚经济一体化进程的加快,台湾经济发展面临的“边缘化”困境会越发严重,与东盟的贸易额也不容乐观。ECFA签订后,台湾必须要寻求进一步的突破,而泛北部湾经济合作为台湾摆脱困境、参与东亚经济合作带来了契机,其诸多特性都成为台湾参与东亚经济一体化的最佳选择,也是两岸共同参与东亚经济合作的必由之路以及两岸联合解决南海问题的一条介质性通道。最后,文章又对台湾参与泛北部湾经济合作的具体途径和方式提供一些对策建议。本文没有仅限于东亚经济一体化和泛北部湾经济合作的研究,突破性的将台湾和泛北部湾经济合作结合起来研究,为台湾参与东亚经济一体化进程寻找到合适路径：参与泛北部湾经济合作。并提出台湾参与泛北部湾经济合作的效应做出预测。研究不仅有利于台湾摆脱当前的经济困境,也有利于台湾更快地融入东亚经济一体化进程,更为两岸长期和平发展创造有力保障。
[Abstract]:Since the World Trade Organization (WTO) since the establishment of regional economic cooperation development faster and faster, the trend of regional economic integration is significant. The first occurred in the regional economic cooperation between neighboring countries or regions have geographical advantages, such as the European Union (EU), the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA), ASEAN (ASEAN), but with the cooperative members surrounding available resources gradually reduced and deepening the idea of cooperation, beyond the simple geographical boundaries, further interpretation of the concept of geo economics, expanding the scope of cooperation and the way, has become the new characteristics of regional economic cooperation.
East Asia economy occupies an important component in the world economy, the world economic integration is also part of the East Asian regional economic integration, although there are many diversity and uncertainty in East Asia, plus the United States to the whole East Asia, regional economic integration in East Asia. There are some obstacles in the process of development, but the trend is irreversible in Taiwan. As the most developed Asia, one of the most affluent areas, has created a huge economic miracle, but also one of the nineteenth Century global economic integration under the big wave of beneficiaries. Today, Taiwan in the East Asian economic integration process is facing the crisis of marginalization, and Taiwan is also very difficult to find a suitable point of intervention into the. Of course, there are many reasons for this situation, including economic factors, political factors, including external factors and their own factors. How to set Taiwan Taiwan It is worth studying to take off the dilemma of "Marginalization" and integrate the process of economic integration in East Asia in a suitable way.
The Pan Beibu Gulf Economic Cooperation "concept has rapidly developed since 2006, as Chinese ASEAN Free Trade Zone is one of the important sub regional economic cooperation, the Pan Beibu Gulf Economic Cooperation of major significance, overall development in the future of the economy in the region and even the whole East Asia and East Asia, different from other sub regional economic cooperation, and many other features the Pan Beibu Gulf Economic Cooperation's unique" open "and" ocean "is suitable for Taiwan to participate. Therefore, this paper puts forward the Pan Beibu Gulf economic cooperation is most conducive to Taiwan's participation in the East Asian economic integration, the best path is the future in the process of economic integration in East Asia.
In CAFTA and ECFA in the background, the article reviews the related research literatures in this area, and then to the theory of regional economy and regional economic cooperation is based on the theory of discussion: first, discusses the influence of East Asian economic integration trend of the economy from the Taiwan and the Pan Beibu Gulf Economic Cooperation for Taiwan's participation in the East Asian economic integration. Initially given Taiwan's participation in the Pan Beibu Gulf Economic Cooperation for the integration of East Asian economic integration view. Based on this, the trade integration index, comparative advantage index, trade complementary index method, prediction of Taiwan to participate in the economic effects of Pan Beibu Gulf Economic cooperation may bring and the other spillover the effect may bring, and gives the conclusion: with the accelerated process of economic integration in East Asia, the economic development of Taiwan is facing the dilemma of "Marginalization" Will become more and more serious, the volume of trade with ASEAN is not optimistic after the signing of.ECFA, Taiwan must seek further breakthrough, and the Pan Beibu Gulf Economic Cooperation Dilemma for Taiwan, in the East Asian economic cooperation opportunities, many of its characteristics have become the best choice for Taiwan to participate in the economic integration of East Asia, a media channel is on both sides of the Straits to participate in the economic cooperation in East Asia and the only way which must be passed on both sides of the South China Sea issue to solve. Finally, the article provides some suggestions on the specific way for Taiwan to participate in the Pan Beibu Gulf Economic cooperation and the way.
This paper is not only limited to the economic integration of East Asia and the Pan Beibu Gulf economic cooperation research, breakthrough in Taiwan and the Pan Beibu Gulf economic cooperation together, for Taiwan to participate in the process of economic integration in East Asia to find the right path: to participate in the Pan Beibu Gulf economic cooperation. And put forward the effect of Taiwan's participation in the Pan Beibu Gulf Economic Cooperation forecast research is not only conducive to Taiwan to get rid of the current economic difficulties, but also conducive to Taiwan to quickly integrate into the process of economic integration in East Asia, creating a powerful guarantee for long-term cross-strait peaceful development.

【学位授予单位】：广西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F114.46;F127

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