资源型城市大气污染物浓度的EKC特征分析——以邢台市为例

发布时间：2018-04-13 19:45

本文选题：邢台市 + 经济增长　；参考：《生态经济》2017年06期

【摘要】：运用环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)理论、灰色预测模型,研究邢台市2003—2014年大气中污染物浓度与人均GDP的关系,分析各污染物浓度与经济增长之间的库兹涅茨曲线特征,并对未来人均GDP和污染物浓度进行预测。结果表明:大气EKC不符合倒"U"型关系,而是属于"N"型三次曲线关系。从拟合度来看,大气SO_2浓度与人均GDP的拟合度最高,其次为NO_2,最低的为PM10。说明在研究期内经济增长的一段时期内与倒"U"型关系相似,但当经济进一步发展时,大气环境质量会随经济增长而恶化。预测结果显示:大气中SO_2、NO_2和PM10年平均浓度值逐年增加。据此,文章提出有效控制邢台市大气中污染物浓度的措施,以促进该区域经济绿色健康快速发展。
[Abstract]:Based on the theory of environmental Kuznets curve and grey prediction model, the relationship between atmospheric pollutant concentration and GDP per capita in Xingtai from 2003 to 2014 was studied, and the characteristics of Kuznets curve between pollutant concentration and economic growth were analyzed.The GDP per capita and pollutant concentration were predicted in the future.The results show that the atmospheric EKC does not accord with the inverted "U" type relationship, but belongs to the "N" type cubic curve relationship.According to the fitting degree, the fitting degree between atmospheric SO_2 concentration and GDP per capita was the highest, followed by no _ 2 and PM _ (10).It shows that the relationship between the economic growth and the inverted "U" type is similar during the period of economic growth, but when the economy develops further, the atmospheric environmental quality will deteriorate with the economic growth.The predicted results show that the annual average concentrations of so _ 2O _ 2 and PM10 in the atmosphere increase year by year.Accordingly, the paper puts forward effective measures to control the concentration of pollutants in the atmosphere of Xingtai City, in order to promote the rapid development of green economy in the region.
【作者单位】：邢台学院地理系;河北师范大学资源与环境科学学院;首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院;
【基金】：河北省自然科学基金项目“基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的经济、能源与环境污染关系及对策研究——以邢台市为例”(D2016108005) 河北省高等学校科学技术研究项目“南水北调中线工程邢台受水区的生态响应及良性调控机制研究”(ZD2016206) 河北省高等学校青年拔尖人才计划项目“河北树轮气候响应及重建研究”(BJ201602) 邢台市科技计划项目“邢台市众创空间发展现状及运营模式研究”(2016ZZ039) 邢台市科技局自筹经费计划项目“邢台市农村家庭能源消费结构及调整对策研究”(2016ZC336)
【分类号】：X51

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