区域宏观经济数据质量的检验

发布时间：2018-04-19 05:25

本文选题：数据质量 + 联立方程组　；参考：《燕山大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：统计数据是一个国家或地区社会经济发展的基本情报，是各级主管部门正确分析国民经济运行态势以及制定方针政策和宏观调控的重要依据。同时，准确而充分的统计信息是决策与科学研究的基础，直接影响到社会科学研究能否产生正确的研究结果。目前我国经济处于持续的高速增长时期，伴随着这种持续的增长，我国有关经济数据也受到了许多国内外专家学者的质疑。因此对统计数据质量作出科学的检验，具有重要现实意义和应用价值。论文主要由五部分构成。首先，利用选题背景分析了统计数据的真实性在社会科学发展中所发挥的关键作用以及建立统计数据质量检验评估体系的重要意义；其次，对统计数据检验研究前人的已有方法进行概括归纳，对我国区域宏观经济统计数据质量的现状进行定性分析，找出我国现行区域宏观经济统计数据统计的方法中存在的问题。提出论文所要研究讨论的主要内容和方法。再次，介绍了区域宏观经济指标、联立方程组计量经济学模型和Benford统计数据质量检验方法的原理和使用条件。然后，将Benford法则与联立方程组的计量经济学模型相结合，从定量角度研究区域经济统计数据的质量检验问题，改进了经典的以上年统计数据预测下年统计数据模型，建立以同一年份指标为解释变量和被解释量的联立方程组计量经济学模型，，并运用SAS软件以我国2006-2011年31个省市宏观经济指标的截面统计数据为样本对模型进行估计、检验和改进；并以2012年我国实际宏观经济数据对建立模型进行了检验，效果良好。最后，针对我国宏观经济统计数据质量情况和实际数据生成过程中存在的问题提出改进的可行性建议。
[Abstract]:Statistical data is the basic information of the social and economic development of a country or a region. It is also an important basis for the competent departments at all levels to correctly analyze the operational situation of the national economy and to formulate policies and principles as well as macroeconomic regulation and control.At the same time, accurate and sufficient statistical information is the basis of decision-making and scientific research, which directly affects whether social science research can produce correct research results.At present, China's economy is in a period of sustained rapid growth, with this sustained growth, China's economic data has also been questioned by many experts and scholars at home and abroad.Therefore, it is of great practical significance and application value to make a scientific test on the quality of statistical data.The paper consists of five parts.Firstly, the paper analyzes the key role of the authenticity of statistical data in the development of social science and the importance of establishing a statistical data quality inspection and evaluation system by using the background of the selected topic.This paper generalizes the existing methods of statistical data test and summarizes the present situation of data quality of regional macroeconomic statistics in China, and finds out the existing problems in the methods of statistics of regional macroeconomic statistics in China.The main contents and methods of the paper are put forward.Thirdly, the paper introduces the principles and application conditions of regional macroeconomic indicators, simultaneous equations econometrics model and Benford statistical data quality inspection method.Then, combining the Benford rule with the econometrics model of simultaneous equations, this paper studies the quality inspection of regional economic statistics from the quantitative point of view, and improves the classical statistical data prediction model for the previous year.An econometric model of simultaneous equations with the index of the same year as the explanatory variable and the explained quantity is established. The econometrics model is estimated by using the cross section statistical data of 31 provinces and cities' macroeconomic indicators from 2006 to 2011 using SAS software.Test and improvement, and the actual macroeconomic data in China in 2012 to test the establishment of the model, the results are good.Finally, some feasible suggestions are put forward to improve the quality of macroeconomic statistical data and the problems existing in the process of actual data generation.
【学位授予单位】：燕山大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124;F224

【参考文献】