基于VAR模型的酒泉市产业结构与城市化关系分析

发布时间：2018-04-27 01:24

本文选题：城市化 + 产业结构　；参考：《西北师范大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：在区域经济快速发展的要求下，城市化发展与产业优化升级已经成为学者研究的热点问题。相关理论已经证明城市发展与产业结构演变具有内在联系。城市的发展对二、三产业的发展提供了有利市场，对产业结构的演进具有推动作用，而产业结构的优化升级又能促进就业带动城市化水平的提高。改革开放以来，酒泉市城市化水平不断提高，产业结构不断优化。但仍然存在一些问题，主要表现在：城市化质量不高、城市集聚度不高、工业进程相对滞后、产业结构层次较低等问题。这些问题给酒泉市的经济发展带来一些消极影响。因此，研究酒泉市城市化发展与产业结构内部互动关系，可以为酒泉市产业结构调整和城市化健康发展提供建议。本文将定性与定量的方法相结合，在国内外学者的研究基础上，结合酒泉市城市化与产业结构的发展现状与问题，采用实证分析，运用酒泉市1990-2011年城市发展水平与产业结构的相关数据，对酒泉市城市化水平与产业结构的互动关系进行计量分析并提出相关政策建议。结果表明：①酒泉市城市化水平由1990年26.77%增至2011年35.37%，高于甘肃平均水平的37.15%，随着城市的发展，酒泉市的产业结构也在不断优化升级。酒泉市城市化水平分别与一产产值比重、一产就业人口比重以及二产就业人口比重呈负相关，，与二产产值比重，三产产值比重以及三产就业人口比重呈正相关；②格兰杰因果检验表明：城市化水平与第一产业产值比重、第一产业就业人口比重以及第二产业产值比重存在单向格兰杰原因，城市化水平与第二产业就业人口比重、第三产业产值比重以及第三产业就业人口比重存在双向的格兰杰原因；③脉冲响应函数表明：城市化水平的提高对第一产业产值比重、第一产业就业人口比重，第二产业就业人口比重有负向冲击，对第二产值比重、第三产业产值比重，第三产业就业人口比重有正向冲击，第二产业就业人口比重的提高对城市化水平提高有负冲击，第三产业产值与就业人口比重对城市化水平提高有正冲击；④方差分解结果表明：城市化水平与三次产业间的方差贡献率在第十期增到最大，其解释度较高。说明城市化水平的提高是引起产业结构的演进的重要因素，而第二产业及第三产业的发展也是推进酒泉市城市化的主要动力。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of regional economy, urbanization and industrial optimization have become a hot issue. Relevant theories have proved that urban development and the evolution of industrial structure have internal relations. The development of the city provides a favorable market for the development of the secondary and tertiary industries and promotes the evolution of the industrial structure, and the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure can promote the improvement of the level of urbanization driven by employment. Since reform and opening up, the level of urbanization in Jiuquan City has been continuously improved, and the industrial structure has been continuously optimized. However, there are still some problems, such as the low quality of urbanization, the low degree of urban concentration, the lag of industrial process, the low level of industrial structure, and so on. These problems bring some negative effects to the economic development of Jiuquan City. Therefore, the study of the interaction between the urbanization development and the industrial structure of Jiuquan City can provide suggestions for the adjustment of the industrial structure and the healthy development of the urbanization in Jiuquan City. This paper combines the qualitative and quantitative methods, based on the research of domestic and foreign scholars, combined with the current situation and problems of the urbanization and industrial structure of Jiuquan, adopts the empirical analysis. Based on the relevant data of urban development level and industrial structure in Jiuquan City from 1990 to 2011, this paper makes an econometric analysis of the interaction between the urbanization level and industrial structure in Jiuquan City and puts forward relevant policy recommendations. The results showed that the urbanization level of Jiuquan City increased from 26.77% in 1990 to 35.3737% in 2011, which was higher than the average level in Gansu Province (37.15). With the development of the city, the industrial structure of Jiuquan City was continuously optimized and upgraded. The urbanization level of Jiuquan City is negatively correlated with the proportion of the output value of one production, the proportion of the employed population of the first industry and the employment population of the second industry, and has a positive correlation with the proportion of the output value of the second production, the proportion of the output value of the third industry and the proportion of the third industry employed population. (2) Granger causality test shows that there are one-way Granger reasons for the proportion of urbanization level and primary industry output value, primary industry employment population and secondary industry output value, and urbanization level and secondary industry employment population proportion. The ratio of output value of the tertiary industry and the proportion of the employed population of the tertiary industry has a bidirectional Granger reason 3 impulse response function. The results show that the increase of the level of urbanization affects the proportion of the output value of the primary industry and the proportion of the employed population in the primary industry. The proportion of the employment population in the secondary industry has a negative impact, which has a positive impact on the proportion of the second output value, the proportion of the output value of the third industry, and the proportion of the employed population of the third industry. The increase in the proportion of the employed population in the second industry has a negative impact on the level of urbanization. The results of variance decomposition show that the variance contribution rate between urbanization level and tertiary industry increases to the maximum in the tenth period, and its explanation is high. It shows that the improvement of urbanization level is an important factor that causes the evolution of industrial structure, and the development of secondary industry and tertiary industry is also the main driving force to promote the urbanization of Jiuquan City.
【学位授予单位】：西北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.27;F127

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