基于系统动力学的甘肃省工业园区循环经济发展研究

发布时间：2018-05-03 23:43

本文选题：工业园区 + 系统动力学模型　；参考：《兰州大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：工业园区是发展区域经济的主要载体,经过多年的粗放式发展,许多工业园区都产生了严峻的环境问题。甘肃省是改革开放以来最早的工业省份之一,目前有35个国家级及省级园区,这些园区在发展的过程中存在着资源利用程度低、环境污染程度大等问题。究其原因,主要是因为目前我国的工业园区发展历史较短,在运行机制和产业关联度等方面还不成熟。因此面对这一现状,本文在系统查阅国内外工业园区发展状况的基础上,从理论到实证,对甘肃省工业园区的未来发展方向进行了研究,具体内容和结论如下： (1)论文以循环经济理论和系统动力学理论为基础,对甘肃省工业园区进行了系统分析,通过研究园区的主要特征,将甘肃省工业园区分为经济、人口和环境三个子系统,并且阐述了各个子系统之间的关系,表明工业园区是个复杂的系统,三个子系统的运作都是息息相关的。 (2)论文通过分析三个子系统的主要特点,选出了61个变量,构建了35方程式,最终建立了甘肃省工业园区的系统动力学模型,并且通过了模型验证。这表明本论文所建立的模型是可行且可实践的。 (3)选取甘肃省具有代表性的玉门经济开发区为实例,对玉门经济开发区进行模拟预测。模拟设置了11种不同的调控方案,分析了园区的工业生产总值、工业生产总值增加值、固体废弃物存储量、废水总量、污水中COD的含量、大气中SO2的变化趋势。经由这些变量的数值变化趋势,为玉门经济开发区设置了近期发展和远期发展两种优化调控方案。本论文所进行的研究是基于甘肃省工业园区目前发展的现实状况,构建出的系统动力学模型具有普遍实用性,通过对玉门经济开发区进行的实证分析,不但可以对玉门经济开发区未来的发展模式进行调控,还能对甘肃省其他工业园区的可持续发展提供理论和实践上的支持。
[Abstract]:Industrial park is the main carrier of the development of regional economy. After years of extensive development, many industrial parks have produced severe environmental problems. Gansu Province is one of the earliest industrial provinces since the reform and opening up. At present there are 35 national and provincial parks. In the process of development of these parks there are some problems such as low utilization of resources and large degree of environmental pollution. The main reason is that the development history of industrial parks in our country is short and the operation mechanism and industrial correlation degree are not mature. Therefore, in the face of this situation, this paper, on the basis of systematically consulting the development situation of industrial parks at home and abroad, and from theory to demonstration, studies the future development direction of industrial parks in Gansu Province. The specific contents and conclusions are as follows: Based on the theory of circular economy and the theory of system dynamics, this paper makes a systematic analysis of Gansu Industrial Park. By studying the main characteristics of the park, the paper divides Gansu Industrial Park into three subsystems: economy, population and environment. The relationship between each subsystem is expounded, which shows that the industrial park is a complex system and the operation of the three subsystems is closely related. By analyzing the main characteristics of the three subsystems, 61 variables are selected and 35 equations are constructed. Finally, the system dynamics model of Gansu Industrial Park is established and verified by the model. This shows that the model established in this paper is feasible and practical. The representative Yumen Economic Development Zone in Gansu Province is selected as an example to simulate and forecast Yumen Economic Development Zone. In this paper, 11 different control schemes are set up, and the industrial gross product (GDP), the added value of industrial gross product (GDP), the storage capacity of solid waste, the total amount of wastewater, the content of COD in sewage and the change trend of SO2 in atmosphere are analyzed. Through the numerical change trend of these variables, two optimal control schemes are set up for the Yumen Economic Development Zone in the near term and in the long term. The research in this paper is based on the current development of Gansu Industrial Park, the system dynamics model has universal practicability, through the empirical analysis of Yumen Economic Development Zone. It can not only regulate the future development mode of Yumen Economic Development Zone, but also provide theoretical and practical support for the sustainable development of other industrial parks in Gansu Province.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F205;N941.3;F427

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