ECFA对两岸经贸的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-05 19:07

本文选题：ECFA + 两岸经贸合作　；参考：《北京交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：在区域经济一体化的发展进程中,海峡两岸的经贸关系已经成为各自对外经济来往中的重要组成部分。《海峡两岸经济合作框架协议(ECFA)》的签署和实施是两岸经贸合作领域的一大转折,它将加速两岸间商品、资本及资源的流动,同时也会对两岸双边贸易、投资及相关产业产生重大影响。本研究首先在总结前人研究的基础上,应用自由贸易区理论,从比较静态的角度分析了两岸在实施ECFA前后贸易关系的变化以及ECFA框架下可能带来的贸易效应。为量化ECFA的贸易效应,本文利用经典巴拉萨模型对ECFA的贸易效应进行实证研究。在投资及产业效应的研究上,本文主要采取定性和定量及比较的方法来分析。通过本文对贸易效应的实证研究,结果表明ECFA对中国台湾产生了贸易创造效应,没有贸易转移；对中国大陆而言,既没有产生明显的贸易创造效应也没有出现贸易转移效应。在投资方面,ECFA有利于促进中国大陆对台湾的投资,改善台湾的投资环境。在产业影响上,在短期内,由于竞争产品的进入,两岸双边会有部分产业受到创伤；但在长期内,这样有利两岸于双边发挥各自的比较优势,专业化生产,实现规模经济降低生产成本,并且有利于本地产业结构的调整和实现双边更高层次的合作。本文主要在现有研究成果的基础上,结合ECFA签署后两岸经贸的实际运行情况,从理论和实证的角度深入且系统地分析了ECFA签署对两岸经贸产生的影响,丰富了对ECFA效应的研究。
[Abstract]:In the process of regional economic integration, The economic and trade relations between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait have become an important part of their respective foreign economic exchanges. The signing and implementation of the "Framework Agreement on Economic Cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait" is a major turning point in the field of cross-strait economic and trade cooperation. It will speed up the commodities between the two sides of the strait. The flow of capital and resources will also have a significant impact on bilateral trade, investment and related industries. On the basis of summarizing the previous studies, this study applies the theory of free trade zone to analyze the changes of the trade relations between the two sides of the strait before and after the implementation of ECFA and the possible trade effects under the framework of ECFA from a relatively static point of view. In order to quantify the trade effect of ECFA, this paper makes an empirical study on the trade effect of ECFA by using the classical Barraza model. In the study of investment and industrial effects, this paper mainly adopts qualitative and quantitative and comparative methods to analyze. Through the empirical study of trade effects in this paper, the results show that ECFA has a trade creation effect on Taiwan, and no trade transfer; for mainland China, there is neither obvious trade creation effect nor trade transfer effect. In terms of investment, ECFA is conducive to promoting mainland China's investment in Taiwan and improving Taiwan's investment environment. In terms of industrial impact, in the short term, due to the entry of competitive products, some industries on both sides of the strait will be traumatized. In the long run, however, this will help the two sides to develop their respective comparative advantages and specialize in production. The realization of economies of scale reduces production costs, and is conducive to the adjustment of local industrial structure and the realization of bilateral higher level cooperation. Based on the existing research results and the actual operation of cross-strait economy and trade after the signing of ECFA, this paper deeply and systematically analyzes the influence of ECFA signature on cross-strait economy and trade from both theoretical and empirical angles, which enriches the research on ECFA effect.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.8

【参考文献】