西部地区技术进步的就业效应研究

发布时间：2018-05-12 05:41

本文选题：技术进步 + 就业量　；参考：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着改革开放的不断深入,技术进步源源不断为我国经济发展提供动力,从东部沿海地区的崛起到西部大开发,我国各个地区都呈现了不同程度的发展趋势。由于各个地区的资源要素禀赋不同,因而其发展的模式和方法也不尽相同。进入21世纪以来,技术创新已经成为经济增长的最重要源泉动力。一般而言,经济的增长和创新应该使社会更具有创造力,带动劳动力劳动的积极性,然而现实是失业状况仍然居高不下。随着市场经济的不断发展,丰富的劳动力资源禀赋不能被充分的吸收和利用,成为了经济发展的阻碍和瓶颈,使得我国的就业领域存在突出的总量和结构的矛盾。在经济高速发展和就业形势日益严峻的情况下,技术进步是否能够带动劳动就业成为了一个重要的问题。我们该如何有效的发挥区域经济优势,选择恰当的技术进步途径,从而更好的带动就业,是一个需要思考的问题,也是本文的出发点所在。本文主要研究技术进步对西部地区就业量,即就业总数的影响。关于技术进步对就业的影响,国内外学者有着不同的观点和看法。国外的研究是基于一系列经济增长理论进行的,观察角度的差异使得研究的结果各异,国内的研究主要是从技术进步对就业总量和就业结构的理论和实证方面进行宏观的研究,国内学者大多是针对全国范围内进行整体的研究,而对于不同区域的研究相对较少。由于我国西部地区经济发展水平和要素禀赋的特殊性,技术进步对就业的影响机制不同,如何有效的发挥区域经济优势,选择恰当的技术进步途径,从而更好的带动就业,是本文的出发点所在。本文主要是基于西部地区技术进步对就业的影响路径,将西方的理论研究成果结合我国的实际情况进行针对性的实证分析,并通过差异化对比分析突出研究对象的特征。文章主要内容包括理论介绍与分析、现状分析、实证分析和对策分析,通过对我国西部地区的实际数据分析来探讨相关的影响机制,挖掘出一些新的影响因素,并用相应的计量方法对模型和理论进行改进。本文的创新点主要是针对西部地区单独进行分析,运用西部地区的省级面板数据来进行建模和分析,通过脉冲响应模型和截面数据的分析来探讨技术进步对就业的影响路径,并通过交互项来建立技术进步对就业量影响的实证路径。由于我国技术进步对就业量的影响机制并未形成一个完善的理论和实证框架,因而在探讨过程中会存在一些不足的地方,主要表现为2011年以后的最新数据搜集不到以及没有详述技术进步对就业结构的影响。基于以上考虑,第二章介绍了技术进步和就业的相关理论综述。首先对技术进步的相关概念进行界定,说明了技术进步的定义、分类和测度。其次,第二节对就业及相关概念进行了解释,并介绍了西方对于就业的相关理论。第三节阐述了技术进步就业效应机制中的一些中间变量和外生变量,最后介绍了技术进步通过物质资本、产业结构和人力资本三个途径对就业量的影响,从理论上研究技术进步如何通过他们来影响就业。第三章主要是对西部地区的技术进步和就业量的变化趋势进行描述性分析。首先测算出西部地区的技术进步指标-全要素生产率,并以东部发达地区作对比,得出我国西部地区技术进步落后于东部发达地区；其次对西部地区的就业状况进行分析,得出西部地区就业增长幅度低于东部发达地区,城镇登记失业率高于东部发达地区。第四章文章运用西部十省市的省级面板数据建立模型进行实证检验,并和发达地区的结果作对比,验证第二章提出的结论。本章首先提出了技术进步就业效应实证的模型框架,通过C-D函数和企业最大化利润模型建立基本的模型框架,加上文章主要分析的路径变量,建立基本模型；第二节介绍了数据的来源和指标的选取；第三节主要是对模型进行实证,首先选取两类地区的代表性省份形成变量的时间序列数据,运用向量自回归模型和脉冲响应函数来观察技术进步对中间变量不同期的影响,其次分析不同省份同时期技术进步与中间变量之间的关系,从而对模型的构建进行验证。之后主要是运用1996-2011年西部十省市和东部九省市的省级面板数据建立模型进行实证分析。通过建模我们可以得到如下结论： (1)技术进步对西部地区和东部发达地区的就业量影响均为负值,说明技术进步对就业的破坏效应大于补偿效应。 (2)技术进步的不同路径对不同区域的作用结果不同。资本积累抑制就业,技术进步使得资本不断替代劳动,加剧了对就业的破坏作用,但长期由于技术的提升和经济的发展,会带动就业的发展,其总效应显示为促进就业量的增加。技术进步还通过产业结构的调整和优化升级影响就业。西部地区第三产业相对落后,比重较小,因而技术进步主要是通过第二产业来影响就业；反之,东部发达地区第三产业发展迅猛,对就业的调节力度大,因而主要是通过第三产业来影响就业。技术进步通过教育投入对就业的影响并不显著为正,说明教育投入和人才培养需要一段的时滞,在此期间,教育的投入并不能明显的促进就业的增长。 (3)技术进步对就业影响机制中还有一些其他变量,如实际工资水平。实际工资水平的提高会促使西部地区就业量增加,反之会使东部地区就业量减少。第五章通过实例提出适应西部地区的技术进步和就业的政策措施。第-节主要列举了西部地区技术进步和就业息息相关的两个重要的举措,通过支援西部和新丝绸之路经济带对西部地区的机遇和影响来反映技术进步对就业的影响机制；第二节主要是针对上一章的实证结论和前一节的例子提出技术进步路径对就业量影响的政策措施。文章最后提出了本文的结论和研究展望。随着未来理论和实践的不断发展,这个古老的问题就会随着时代的发展不断融入新的理论内容和实证方法。文章只分析了一些重要变量的影响,而技术进步对就业的影响还有其他因素,诸如制度、经济环境和文化等。随着学者对技术进步就业效应研究方法的深入,未来的实证模型和估计方法将会更为完善,模型的建立会更加符合不同区域的实际情况。本文最后结合适应西部地区发展的两个具体措施来分析技术进步对就业量的影响,对未来的政策制定和课题的深入研究有一定的实践意义。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of the reform and opening up , the source of technological progress has been providing impetus to our country ' s economic development . From the rise of the eastern coastal area to the western development , the development trend of different degrees is presented in all regions of our country . As the resource elements endowment of each region is different , the pattern and method of its development are different .

Since entering the 21st century , technological innovation has become the most important source of economic growth . Generally speaking , the growth and innovation of economy should make society more creative and stimulate the enthusiasm of labor force . With the development of market economy , rich labor resources endowment can not be absorbed and utilized sufficiently .

In the light of the increasingly severe economic development and employment situation , it is an important question whether technological progress can drive the labor employment to become an important problem . How to effectively play the regional economic advantage , choose the appropriate technological progress way , thus the better driving the employment , is a question that needs to think , and the starting point of this paper . This paper mainly studies the influence of technological progress on the employment quantity in the western region , that is , the total number of jobs .

The research of foreign countries is based on a series of economic growth theories .

This paper is mainly based on the influence path of technology progress on employment in western region , combining the western theoretical research results with the actual situation of our country , and analyzing the characteristics of the object by differentiation contrast analysis . The main contents of this paper include the introduction and analysis of theory , the analysis of the present situation , the empirical analysis and the countermeasure analysis .

This paper focuses on the analysis of the western region , and uses the provincial panel data in the western region to model and analyze the influence of technological progress on employment through the analysis of impulse response model and cross - section data .

Based on the above considerations , the second chapter introduces the relevant theoretical review of technology progress and employment . Firstly , the definition , classification and measure of technological progress are explained , and the definition , classification and measure of technological progress are explained . Secondly , the paper introduces some intermediate variables and exogenous variables in the employment effect mechanism of technology progress .

The third chapter describes the technological progress and the change trend of the employment quantity in the western region . First , the technical progress index - total factor productivity in the western region is calculated , and compared with the developed regions in the east , the technical progress in the western region of our country lags behind the developed regions in the east ;
Secondly , the employment status of the western region is analyzed , and it is concluded that the increase of employment in the western region is lower than that in the developed regions in the east , and the registered unemployment rate in the towns is higher than that in the developed regions in the east .

In chapter 4 , the paper uses the provincial panel data set up model of ten provinces and cities to make an empirical test , and compares the results of the developed regions to validate the conclusions of the second chapter . This chapter firstly puts forward the model frame of the empirical model of technological progress employment effect , establishes the basic model framework through the C - D function and the enterprise maximum profit model , and adds the path variable of the main analysis of the article , and establishes the basic model ;
Section II introduces the source and index selection of data ;
The third section is mainly to make an empirical analysis of the model , first select the time series data of the formation variables in the representative provinces of the two types of regions , use the vector self - regression model and the impulse response function to observe the influence of the technological progress on the non - synchronization of the intermediate variables , and then analyze the relationship between the technical progress and the intermediate variables in different provinces , so as to verify the construction of the model .

( 1 ) The influence of technological progress on the employment quantity in the western and eastern developed areas is negative , which indicates that the effect of technological progress on employment is greater than that of compensation effect .

( 2 ) The different paths of technological progress have different effects on different regions . Capital accumulation suppresses employment and technological progress makes capital keep replacing labor , thus aggravating the damage to employment . However , due to the promotion of technology and the development of economy , the overall effect of the technology is to promote the increase of employment . The third industry in the western region is relatively backward and has a small proportion , so the technological progress mainly affects employment through the second industry .
On the other hand , the development of tertiary industry in the developed regions in the east is rapid , and the adjustment of employment is great , so the influence of technological progress on employment is not significantly positive through the investment of education , which indicates that the education investment and the training of talents need a period of time lag , during which the input of education cannot obviously promote the growth of employment .

( 3 ) Technical progress has some other variables , such as the actual wage level , in the employment impact mechanism . The improvement of the actual wage level will increase the employment volume in the western region , and vice versa .

In chapter 5 , we put forward the policy measures to adapt to the technological progress and employment in the western region . The second section mainly lists two important measures related to the technological progress and employment of the western region , which reflects the influence mechanism of technological progress on employment by supporting the opportunities and impacts of western and new Silk Road economic zones on the western region ;
Section II is mainly aiming at the positive conclusion of the previous chapter and the example of the previous section to put forward the policy measures for the influence of the technical progress path on the amount of employment .

With the development of the future theory and practice , the old question will gradually integrate into the new theoretical content and the empirical method with the development of the times . The article only analyzes the influence of some important variables , and the future empirical model and estimation method will be more perfect .

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.3;F249.21

【参考文献】