人民币汇率变动对江西省经济增长影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-05-14 09:45

本文选题：人民币升值 + 经济增长　；参考：《江西财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：通常来说,影响一国经济增长的因素是错综复杂的,资本的增加、劳动生产率的提高以及技术进步将直接推动一国经济的增长,然而在经济全球化时代,还有许多间接影响因素,汇率就是其中核心因素之一。 2005年7月21日的人民币汇率改革,确定了我国人民币汇率不再钉住单一美元,开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。在我国当前的人民币汇率制度下,人民币汇率处于升值通道内。根据国际清算银行(BIS)公布的人民币名义有效汇率指数测算,从2005年7月至2013年10月,根据贸易权重计算的人民币名义有效汇率累计升值27%,人民币实际有效汇率累计升值36.61%。根据已有理论分析,一国货币的升值会对东道国经济产生不利影响。然而,事实并非如此,在人民币快速升值的同时,江西省对外贸易规模不断增长,实际利用外商投资逐年增加。基于江西省经济发展状况与现有理论的不符,需要有针对性考察汇率与江西省经济增长之间的关系。基于此,本文在已有理论和文献的基础上,从区域经济的角度从发,探究人民币汇率变动对江西省经济增长的影响,并构建了计量模型。本文主要有六个章节。第一章为绪论,介绍本文的写作背景、写作意图、文章结构、创新点与不足之处以及前人的一些研究成果。本文首先通过对2005年7月人民币汇率改革以来人民币持续升值,以这一现象作为本文的切入点,探究其对江西省经济增长的影响；然后,通过阅读相关文献总结目前学术界关于汇率影响经济增长的传递效应理论以及相关实证研究成果。最后,在总结已有研究成果的同时提出改进建议。第二章阐述汇率影响经济增长的理论,重点介绍了汇率影响经济增长的传导机制,主要通过出口贸易渠道和FDI渠道。第三章则根据我国当前产业转移的大背景及江西省利用省外资金的现状,从区域经济学角度出发,借鉴产业转移理论,阐述汇率通过影响省际转移投资而影响经济增长；结合前人的研究成果及区域经济学产业转移理论,提出了本文的理论框架即汇率通过出口贸易渠道、外商直接投资渠道和省际转移投资渠道影响经济增长。第四章主要介绍了江西省经济发展状况、特点及区位优势。第五章则重点分析人民币汇率变动对江西省经济增长影响的传导路径的实证分析。本文将汇率对江西省经济增长的传导路径分为出口额渠道、外商直接投资渠道和省际转移投资渠道,分别阐述各自的传导理论和机制。实证方法采用结构向量自回归(VAR)模型分析框架。在ADF单位根检验、Granger因果关系检验和Johansen检验的基础之上建立一个VAR模型综合考虑汇率通过不同路径对经济增长的冲击。第六章为本文政策建议部分。实证结果表明,第一,从短期动态关系来看,人民币汇率对出口的冲击有限,而且持续性较差,从长期来看,人民币汇率升值会造成江西省出口额增幅的减少,江西省出口额的变动将在较长时间内对江西省经济增长产生影响；第二,从短期动态关系来看,人民币汇率升值对FDI产生正向冲击而且持续性较好；从长期看,自2005年汇率改革至今,人民币汇率的不断上升增加了江西省吸引的外商直接投资,江西省的实证分析验证了理论界关于汇率与外商直接投资理论中汇率升值有利于吸引外商直接投资的假说,外商直接投资的增加会促进江西省经济增长,外商直接投资对江西省经济增长的贡献度随着时间逐渐提高；第三,从短期动态关系来看,人民币汇率对省际转移投资产生正向冲击,正向冲击的持续性较好；从长期来看,人民币升值会引起江西省省际转移投资的增加；由于江西省省际转移投资与江西省经济增长速度之间存在格兰杰因果,验证了省际转移投资是有利于促进经济增长的,而且江西省吸引的省际转移投资的作用如同外商直接投资一样,在促进江西省经济增长扮演着越来越重要的角色。在实证研究的基础上,本文针对性地提出了相关的政策建议：第一,着眼于努力提升出口产品的技术含量和质量,淘汰落后产能,进行产业结构的优化升级,吸引高新技术产业落户江西,提升整体经济的自主创新能力；鉴于历史上我国出口产品的出口退税政策的影响,应逐步降低出口退税政策力度,特别是那些大量消耗资源、污染环境的产品必须坚决取消出口退税的政策支持。第二,努力创造良好的经济环境和制度环境来吸引外商投资。第三,改善交通条件,进行基础设施建设,提供配套服务；充分利用中部崛起战略给予的优惠政策,积极申报国家战略,比如鄱阳湖生态经济区规划、国务院关于振兴赣南等原中央苏区计划等,借助中央政策来支持江西省经济发展。
[Abstract]:Generally speaking, the factors that affect the economic growth of a country are complex, the increase of capital, the increase of labor productivity and the progress of technology will directly promote the economic growth of a country. However, in the era of economic globalization, there are many indirect factors, and the exchange rate is one of the core factors.
The RMB exchange rate reform in July 21, 2005 confirms that the RMB exchange rate in China is no longer nailed to a single dollar, starting with the market supply and demand as the basis, with a reference to a basket of currencies, and a managed floating exchange rate system. Under the current RMB exchange rate system in China, the rate of the people's currency is in the appreciation channel. The nominal effective exchange rate index of RMB published (BIS) is calculated from July 2005 to October 2013. The nominal effective exchange rate of RMB based on trade weight is 27%, and the cumulative appreciation of real effective exchange rate of RMB is 36.61%., according to the existing theoretical analysis, the appreciation of one country's currency will have adverse effects on the host country's economy. In fact, in the rapid appreciation of the RMB, the scale of Jiangxi's foreign trade is growing, and the actual use of foreign investment has increased year by year. Based on the differences between the economic development of Jiangxi and the existing theories, the relationship between the exchange rate of Jiangxi and the economic growth of Jiangxi Province is required. On the basis of this, from the perspective of regional economy, we explore the impact of RMB exchange rate change on Jiangxi's economic growth and build a econometric model.
This article mainly has six chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, which introduces the writing background, the writing intention, the structure of the article, the innovation and the inadequacies as well as some research achievements of the predecessors. Firstly, this article, through the continuous appreciation of RMB since the reform of the RMB exchange rate in July 2005, has taken this phenomenon as the breakthrough point in this paper to explore its effect on Jiangxi. The influence of provincial economic growth; then, through the reading of relevant literature to summarize the transfer effect theory of current academic circles on the impact of exchange rate on economic growth and the results of relevant empirical research. Finally, we put forward some suggestions for improvement while summarizing the existing research results. The second chapter expounds the theory of exchange rate affecting economic growth, focusing on the influence of exchange rate. The transmission mechanism of economic growth is mainly through the export trade channel and the FDI channel. The third chapter, based on the background of China's current industrial transfer and the current situation of the utilization of the capital of Jiangxi Province, from the perspective of regional economics, draws on the theory of industrial transfer, and expounds that exchange rate affects economic growth through the influence of inter provincial transfer investment; The fourth chapter mainly introduces the economic development, characteristics and regional advantages of Jiangxi province. The fifth chapter focuses on the analysis of the RMB exchange rate. The fifth chapter focuses on the analysis of the RMB exchange rate. The empirical analysis of the transmission path of the changes in the economic growth of Jiangxi province. This paper divides the transmission path of the exchange rate to the economic growth of Jiangxi province into the export channel, the foreign direct investment channel and the inter provincial transfer investment channel, respectively, to explain the respective transmission theory and mechanism. The empirical method adopts the structure vector autoregressive (VAR) model analysis frame. On the basis of ADF unit root test, Granger causality test and Johansen test, a VAR model is set up to consider the impact of exchange rate on economic growth through different paths. The sixth chapter is the policy suggestion part of this paper.
The empirical results show that, first, from the short-term dynamic relationship, the impact of RMB exchange rate on exports is limited and its persistence is poor. In the long run, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will result in the decrease in the export volume of Jiangxi Province, and the changes in the export volume of Jiangxi will have an effect on the economic growth of Jiangxi province for a long time; second, from the short term. In the dynamic relationship, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has a positive impact on the FDI and has a good persistence. From the long term, since the exchange rate reform in 2005, the continuous rise of the RMB exchange rate has increased the foreign direct investment attracted by Jiangxi province. The empirical analysis of Jiangxi province proves that the theoretical circle has raised the exchange rate of the exchange rate and the foreign direct investment theory. The increase of foreign direct investment will promote the economic growth of Jiangxi province. The contribution of foreign direct investment to the economic growth of Jiangxi province is gradually increasing with time. Third, from the short-term dynamic relationship, the RMB exchange rate has a positive impact on the inter provincial transfer investment, and the positive impact is sustained. In the long run, the appreciation of RMB will lead to the increase of inter provincial transfer investment in Jiangxi province. Because of the Grainger causality between the inter provincial transfer investment in Jiangxi and the economic growth rate of Jiangxi Province, it is proved that the inter provincial transfer investment is beneficial to promoting economic growth, and the role of inter provincial transfer investment attracted by Jiangxi province is similar to that of Jiangxi province. Like foreign direct investment, it plays an increasingly important role in promoting Jiangxi's economic growth.
On the basis of empirical research, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions: first, we should focus on improving the technical content and quality of export products, eliminating backward production capacity, optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure, attracting high and new technology industries to settle in Jiangxi and improving the independent innovation ability of the whole economy; in view of our country's history The effect of export tax rebate policy should gradually reduce the export tax rebate policy, especially those who consume resources in large quantities, and the products that pollute the environment must resolutely cancel the policy support for export tax rebates. Second, create a good economic environment and institutional environment to attract foreign investment. Third, improve the traffic conditions and carry out the foundation Facilities construction, providing supporting services, making full use of the preferential policies given by the strategy of the rise of central China, actively declaring the national strategy, such as the Poyang Lake eco economic zone planning, the State Council on the revitalization of Southern Jiangxi and other original Central Soviet areas, and the support of central policy to support the economic development of Jiangxi province.

【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F832.6;F127

【参考文献】