基于FTA视角的中国与日本农产品贸易研究

发布时间：2018-06-07 07:25

本文选题：FTA + 农产品　；参考：《北京交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着世界经济一体化进程的推进,越来越多的国家通过缔结区域经济一体化组织共同促进经济的发展,中国与日本作为东亚最重要的两个国家却迟迟没有迈出步伐。两国极不相同的自然禀赋为农产品奠定了贸易的基础,这种互补性会为两国农业经济的发展带来很大契机。但中日经贸合作中遇见的最大阻碍之一即是农产品贸易。本文首先分析了中日农产品贸易现状,然后根据贸易指数分析了中日农产品贸易的关系,进行了建立中日自由贸易区对农产品贸易影响的理论分析,最后通过建立贸易引力模型预测了没有建立和以拟建立FTA后关税削减对中日农产品贸易的影响。得出结论如下：(1)中日农产品贸易发展非常迅速,但中国对日本农产品出口的顺差在不断扩大。(2)通过四个指数测算证实中日之间的农产品贸易互补性较强,如果建立FTA将有利于贸易的扩大。(3)FTA的理论分析推导出建立FTA后中日两国的福利将会有所增加。(4)引力模型证实贸易双方GDP、人均GDP差额与中国对日本农产品进出口贸易额呈正向关系,而单位物流费用、关税则呈反向关系。(5)无论没有建立或拟建立FTA后,中日的贸易潜力都会有所增加,会令中日农产品进出口数额大幅度增长。
[Abstract]:With the advancement of the process of world economic integration, more and more countries promote economic development through the conclusion of regional economic integration organizations, but China and Japan, as the two most important countries in East Asia, have not made any progress. The very different natural endowments of the two countries have laid the foundation for the trade of agricultural products, which will bring a great opportunity for the development of the agricultural economy of the two countries. But one of the biggest obstacles to Sino-Japanese economic and trade cooperation is agricultural trade. This paper first analyzes the current situation of agricultural trade between China and Japan, then analyzes the relationship between China and Japan in agricultural trade according to the trade index, and makes a theoretical analysis on the impact of the establishment of Sino-Japanese Free Trade area on agricultural trade. Finally, the trade gravitation model is established to predict the impact of tariff reduction on agricultural trade between China and Japan after the establishment of FTA. The conclusion is as follows: 1) the agricultural trade between China and Japan has developed very rapidly, but the surplus of China's agricultural exports to Japan is constantly expanding. 2) through four indices, it has been confirmed that the agricultural trade between China and Japan is highly complementary. If the establishment of FTA will be beneficial to the expansion of trade, the theoretical analysis of it deduces that the welfare of China and Japan will increase after the establishment of FTA.) the gravity model proves that the trade parties' GDP, per capita GDP difference and China's import and export trade with Japan's agricultural products are different from each other. Easy forehead positive relationship, However, the unit logistics cost and tariff are inversely related to each other.) after the establishment of FTA, the trade potential of China and Japan will increase, and the import and export amount of agricultural products between China and Japan will increase by a large margin.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.7;F753.13;F323.7

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