经济发展中的城市化效率及政策选择研究

发布时间：2018-06-17 20:34

本文选题：城市化效率 + 经济发展　；参考：《东北财经大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：城市化作为世界经济发展的重大阶段和现代化的主流方向,已经成为发展中国家追求高速发展的社会经济模式和政策决策的大战略。然而,如何通过高效率的城市化运行过程,来实现经济发展的高质量效果,避免各种各样的城市病和诸如拉美国家的“贫民窟城市化”,还正是处于深化研究中的大问题。我国刚刚发布了“国家新型城镇化规划(2014-2020年)”,为我国通过城市化进程走向现代化,指明了主体方向；这同时也意味着：探寻新型城镇化的具体发展道路和行动策略,将是我国未来一个较长时期中的理论研究任务。本文把“经济发展中的城市化效率及政策选择研究”作为选题,正是在这样的背景下,通过探讨我国经济发展中的城市化效率,并据之研究城镇化发展道路的政策和策略选择。这对推动我国经济和谐健康快速发展,对于实现我国的现代化和中国梦有重要的理论和实践意义。作为提升经济发展水平和促进经济社会结构重大转变的重要途径,城市化已成为各国理论界和政策制定层所关注的焦点内容和核心战略,这在城市化发展的历史潮流中得以证实。探讨经济发展中的城市化效率与政策选择问题不仅符合经济社会发展的一般规律和当代发展中国家城市化发展的主流趋势,而且能够为经济发展找到一条高质量的发展道路,是发展经济学和国民经济学科的前瞻性话题之一。特别是我国新型城镇化理念的提出,更需要研究如何通过提升城市化效率来推动经济发展。中国的城市化发展始终处于低效率的运行状态,吴敬琏等老一辈的经济学家指出“最近几年,中国的城市化在加速,这是一个十分可喜的现象。目前,已经有超过半数的劳动力在城市中就业。但是和中国的整个经济发展一样,城市化也存在着一个效率低下的问题。”这也是为何我国的城市化过程中总是出现各种问题的根源所在。中国以往的城市化发展历程中“三高三低”的发展现实依旧突出,为城市化的低效率运行提供注解。资源消耗高,以土地资源为典型代表,中国作为土地资源极度短缺的国家,但是在城市化过程中土地资源浪费的现象比比皆是,土地城市化的速度严重超前于人口城市化的速度,人口城市化又远超于产业城市化,三率倒挂的现象十分明显,一系列的景观城市化或视觉城市化不断涌现,而且万元国内生产总值的耗用土地面积超过发达国家的十倍以上,发展过程不具有长久之意；社会成本高,导致城市化运行成本高、效率低,高昂的社会成本致使以城市基础设施为代表的“城”经济处于供小于求的短缺型状态,外来人口无法享有城市的公共产品和服务,基本公共服务非均等化的事实突出；债务风险高,导致城市资不抵债,城市化进程中需要大量的资金投入与之匹配,债务风险高悬不但对“城”经济发展带来阻碍,也为“市”经济繁荣产生抑制,致使城市化运行中资金链条的断裂,尤其是在城市化投入资金不能有效落到实处的前提下,债务风险的高悬越发明显。商品房入住率过低,也即意味着房屋空置率高,土地价格高导致房价居高不下,进城农民完全没有能力去购房甚至租房,特别是在城市房价连年攀升的社会大背景下,对于以农民工为代表的城市贫困阶层来说无疑是雪上加霜,这也是目前我国城市化被称之为半城市化的原因所在；入城农民工待遇过低,农民工并没有和城市原住居民一样享受到同等的待遇,多数城市出现城市化发展成效由城市原有居民分享,代价却由农民工来支付的异常局面；农地征用补偿过低,农民利益受到损害,较低的农地征用补偿标准远没有达到土地本身所拥有的市场价值,同时由于能力所致无祛在城市购房,形成回不去、留不下的发展局面。“三高三低”的发展现实导致城市化总是处于一种高投入低产出的运行过程中,城市化的低效率成为必然趋势。而城市化作为经济发展的内生动力,对经济发展自然起着特定的带动作用,如果一国或区域的城市化水平总是处在低效率的运行状态,可想而知,这个国家或区域的经济只能是简单的量的增长,不能取得质的重大突破,甚至会陷入恶性循环的链条当中。相反,城市化的高效率运行不仅会促使经济有量的进展,更会有质的起色和引起结构的转换,从而会直接促进经济发展。因此,在经济运行过程中提升城市化效率,并通过城市化的高效率运行推动经济发展水平的提升,就成为我国理论界研究的重要任务。鉴于此,本研究对我国经济发展中的城市化效率进行全面测算,并对经济发展的作用进行分析,明确区域间的城市化效率差异,进行一个经济发展中的城市化效率的系统分析,以期为高质量的城市化政策制定和经济发展水平的提升提供政策决策依据和分析参照。本研究尝试着沿用“中国城市化进程和经济发展之间的关系—经济发展中城市化效率的主要成因及作用机制—经济发展中城市化效率的实证测度—城市化效率提升的政策选择”这么一种思路链条展开探讨。首先,在中国城市化进程和经济发展之间的关系方面,在分析我国城市化的历程、特征和对经济发展的作用、效应及其与国际的比较中,探寻出城市化存在的问题和社会成本,并通过对正确认识城市化的作用、本质、人口来源、城市发展规律及社会价值体系等多方面来明确经济发展中的城市化,进而引导出城市化效率及效率影响度；其次,在经济发展中城市化效率的主要成因及作用机制方面,从城市化效率的主要成因,即城市化投入(土地、劳动、资本等)和城市化产出(有效转移农村剩余劳动力、提升经济发展水平、完善城市基础设施等)两个层面展开分析,并通过构建城市化效率的经济发展理论模型,得出城市化效率作用于经济发展的内在机制为经济规模总量、城市空间的人口承载力、城市基础设施水平、城市空间集聚水平及政府公共规制力度等五种类型；再次,在中国经济发展中城市化效率的实证测度方面,运用数据包络分析方法,通过动态测度得出城市化效率的总体演变趋势及城市化效率的成长类型；通过静态测度得出城市化效率中的纯技术效率和规模效率及投入要素的集约度；同时,对城市化效率的作用机制进行Tobit回归模拟,得出经济规模总量等机制对城市化效率具有正向促进作用,城市人口的过度承载力对城市化效率具有负面阻碍作用；接着对城市化效率进行σ-收敛、β收敛检验并对城市化效率与经济发展的内在关系做出了实证分析,得出城市化效率对经济发展具有正向作用,并进行城市化经济发展效应的理性分析；最后,在城市化效率提升的政策选择方面,评价了中国现行的城市化政策,且对城市化政策的趋势进行了预测,从土地利用模式、产业集群模式、城乡收入分配模式及城市公共经济体制模式等四个方面提出促进中国城市化效率提升的政策建议和链条式的发展思路。本研究在综合运用理论分析和实证分析相结合、动态分析与静态分析相结合及综合分析方法等相关研究方法的基础之上,力求取得一定的创新。首先,在理论探讨的基础上,实证分析城市化效率的主要成因及作用机制,为国民经济发展的成本和效益分析提供核心动力的理论基础,是城市化研究的趋势所在,也是本研究的特色和创新之一,既有的研究成果多关注于城市效率、城市土地利用效率、城市公共支出与公共服务效率、城市工业投入产出效率及城市能源效率等领域,并没有对城市化效率本身及其主要成因和作用机制进行理论探讨和实证检验。这就使国民经济运行分析严重缺乏发展形态方面的运行机制分析；其次,实证分析我国城市化效率与国民经济发展水平之间的关系,为我国通过关注城市化效率推进国民经济发展的政策制定提供实践基础,是本研究的重要特色和创新点,大多数学者曾对城市化与经济发展之间的关系进行了各种分析,得出不甚相同结论,但是都证实了城市化与经济发展之间的内在联系,然而,对于城市化的效率状态,如何影响国民经济发展,国内外学者还没有进行过实证分析。而对城市化效率与经济发展两者之间的内在关系作出相应的说明和检测,却是我国改变经济增长和经济发展模式必须关注的重要问题；再次,构建了城市化效率的经济发展机理模型,运用模型测算寻找出城市化效率的作用机制,力求实现我国城市化效率影响国民经济发展机理的理论创新。因此,本研究尝试着对中国经济发展中的城市化效率及政策选择问题展开探讨,通过城市化效率概念的提出,可引导城市发展从而土地利用模式的转变；通过城市化效率成因的分解,为城市化效率的提升和投入水平从而社会成本的降低找到根源；通过对城市化效率及其依存对象的作用机制研究,可以引导人们更关注发展的质量；通过城市化效率与经济发展之间关系的实证分析结果,可以为选择高质量的城市化政策提供理论依据,达到城市化效率提升,从而促进经济发展的根本初衷。
[Abstract]:As a major stage of world economic development and the mainstream of modernization, cities have become a big strategy for developing countries to pursue high speed social and economic models and policy decisions. However, how to achieve the high quality effects of economic development through the efficient urbanization process and avoid all kinds of urban diseases and various kinds of problems. For example, the "slum urbanization" of the Latin American countries is still a big problem in the deepening of the study. China has just released the "national new urbanization plan (2014-2020 years)", which has pointed out the main direction for our country to modernize through the urbanization process, which also means to explore the concrete development road and line of the new urbanization. The dynamic strategy will be the theoretical research task of our country for a long time. This paper takes "the study of urbanization efficiency and the choice of policy in economic development" as the topic. It is under this background that the urbanization efficiency in the economic development of our country is discussed, and the policy and strategy choice of the urbanization development road is studied. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to promote the harmonious and healthy development of China's economy, to realize the modernization of our country and to the Chinese dream. As an important way to improve the level of economic development and to promote the major transformation of the economic and social structure, urbanization has become the focus and core strategy of the theoretical and policy making layers of various countries. This is proved in the historical trend of urbanization development. To discuss the problem of urbanization efficiency and policy choice in economic development not only conforms to the general law of economic and social development and the mainstream trend of the development of modern developing countries' urbanization, but also can find a high quality development path for economic development, and it is the development economics and the development of economics. One of the forward-looking topics in the subject of national economy, especially the idea of new urbanization in China, needs to study how to promote the economic development by improving the efficiency of urbanization.
China's urbanization has always been in a low efficiency running state. The older economists, such as Wu Jinglian, have pointed out that "in recent years, China's urbanization is accelerating. This is a very pleasant phenomenon. At present, more than half of the labor force has been employed in the city. But as with the whole economic development of China, urbanization also exists." There is a problem of inefficiency. "This is why there is always the root of various problems in the process of urbanization in China. In the course of urbanization in China, the development of" three high and three low "is still outstanding, and it provides annotation for the inefficient operation of urbanization. The high consumption of resources is the typical representative of land resources. As a country with extreme shortage of land resources, the phenomenon of land resource waste is abound in the process of urbanization. The speed of land urbanization is far ahead of the speed of population urbanization, and the urbanization of population is far more than industrial urbanization. The phenomenon of "three rate upside down" is ten distinct, a series of landscape urbanization or visual urbanization is not obvious. The land area of the gross domestic product of ten thousand yuan is more than ten times more than that of the developed country. The development process does not have the meaning of long term. The high social cost leads to the high cost of urban operation, the low efficiency and the high social cost, which leads to the "City" economy represented by urban infrastructure in short supply. The foreign population is unable to enjoy the public products and services of the city, the fact that the basic public service is unequal, the high debt risk leads to the insolvency of the city, and the need for a large amount of funds to match in the process of urbanization. The high debt risk not only hinders the economic development of the city, but also produces the economic prosperity of the city. Inhibition, resulting in the disruption of the capital chain in the operation of urbanization, especially on the premise that the investment funds of urbanization can not be put into practice effectively, the high suspension of debt risk is more obvious. The low occupancy rate of commercial housing means that the housing vacancy rate is high, the price of the land is high and the price of the land is high, and the peasants in the city are completely incapable of buying a house. To rent, especially in the social background of urban housing price climbing for a year, it is no doubt that it is worse for the poor urban migrant workers represented by the migrant workers, which is the reason why the urbanization of our country is the reason of semi urbanization. Equal treatment, in most cities, the urban development results are shared by the urban residents, but the cost is paid by the migrant workers. The land expropriation compensation is too low and the farmers' interests are damaged. The lower compensation standard of the land expropriation is far from the market value of the land itself. The development situation of the urban house buying is not going back, but the development reality of "three high three low" leads to the urbanization always in the process of high investment and low production, and the low efficiency of urbanization becomes the inevitable trend.
As an endogenous driving force for economic development, cities play a specific driving role in economic development. If the urbanization level of a country or region is always in a low efficiency operation state, it is conceivable that the economy of this country or region can only be a simple amount of growth, which can not make a major breakthrough, or even be in a vicious way. On the contrary, the efficient operation of urbanization will not only promote the economic progress, but also improve the quality and the transformation of the structure. Thus, the economic development will be promoted directly. Therefore, the efficiency of urbanization will be promoted in the process of economic operation, and the level of economic development will be promoted through the efficient operation of urbanization, In view of this, this study makes a comprehensive calculation of the urbanization efficiency in the economic development of our country, analyzes the role of the economic development, makes clear the difference in the efficiency of urbanization between regions, and carries out a systematic analysis of the efficiency of urbanization in an economic development, with a view to the high quality of urbanization. Policy formulation and improvement of economic development provide policy decision basis and analysis reference.
This study attempts to use "the relationship between the process of urbanization and economic development in China - the main causes of urbanization efficiency in economic development and the mechanism of action - the empirical measure of urbanization efficiency in economic development - the policy choice of urbanization efficiency promotion": a chain of ideas. First, the process of Urbanization in China In terms of the relationship with economic development, in the analysis of the course of urbanization in China, its characteristics and its role in economic development, its effect and its international comparison, it explores the existing problems and social costs of urbanization, and through the correct understanding of the role of urbanization, the essence, the source of human mouth, the law of urban development and the social value system, and so on. To clarify the urbanization in economic development, and then lead to the degree of urbanization efficiency and efficiency; secondly, the main causes of urbanization efficiency in the economic development and the mechanism of action, from the main causes of urbanization efficiency, namely, urbanization input (land, labor, capital, etc.) and urbanization output (the effective transfer of rural surplus labor, To improve the level of economic development, improve the urban infrastructure and so on, two aspects are analyzed, and through the construction of the economic development theory model of urbanization efficiency, it is concluded that the internal mechanism of urbanization efficiency on economic development is the total economic scale, the population carrying capacity of urban space, the level of urban infrastructure, the level of urban spatial agglomeration and the level of urban spatial agglomeration and the level of urban spatial agglomeration and the level of urban spatial agglomeration and the level of urban spatial agglomeration and the level of urban spatial agglomeration and There are five types of government public regulation, and again, in the empirical measure of urbanization efficiency in China's economic development, using data envelopment analysis method, the overall trend of urbanization efficiency and the growth type of urbanization efficiency are obtained through dynamic measure, and the pure technical efficiency of urbanization efficiency is obtained by static measure. And the intensive degree of scale efficiency and input factors; at the same time, the mechanism of the action of urbanization efficiency is simulated by Tobit regression, and the mechanism of the total economic scale has a positive effect on the urbanization efficiency. The excessive carrying capacity of urban population has a negative hindrance to the urbanization efficiency, and then the urbanization efficiency is carried out in sigma convergence. The empirical analysis is made on the beta convergence test and the inner relationship between the urbanization efficiency and the economic development. It is concluded that the urbanization efficiency has a positive effect on the economic development and the rational analysis of the urbanization economic development effect. Finally, in the policy choice of the urbanization efficiency, the current urbanization policy of China is evaluated and the city has been evaluated. The trend of the urbanization policy is predicted. From four aspects, such as land use mode, industrial cluster model, urban and rural income distribution pattern and urban public economic system model, the policy suggestions and chain type development ideas to promote China's urbanization efficiency are proposed.
In this study, based on the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, dynamic analysis and static analysis and comprehensive analysis methods, we strive to achieve some innovation. First, on the basis of theoretical discussion, the main causes and mechanism of urbanization efficiency are analyzed, and the development of the national economy is for the development of the national economy. The analysis of cost and benefit provides the theoretical basis of core motivation, which is the trend of urbanization research, and is also one of the characteristics and innovation of this study. The existing research results pay more attention to urban efficiency, urban land use efficiency, urban public expenditure and public service efficiency, urban industrial input-output efficiency and urban energy efficiency. There are no theoretical and empirical tests on the urbanization efficiency itself and its main causes and mechanisms. This makes the analysis of the operation mechanism of the national economic operation lack of development form. Secondly, the empirical analysis of the relationship between the efficiency of urbanization and the development level of the national economy is given to our country. The efficiency of urbanization provides a practical basis for the policy formulation of national economic development. It is the important feature and innovation point of this study. Most scholars have analyzed the relationship between urbanization and economic development, and draw different conclusions, but all confirm the internal relations between urbanization and economic development, however, The efficiency state of urbanization and how to influence the development of the national economy, the domestic and foreign scholars have not carried on the empirical analysis, but the internal relationship between the urbanization efficiency and the economic development is explained and tested, but it is an important issue that we must pay attention to to change the economic growth and the economic development mode. The economic development mechanism model of efficiency is used to find out the mechanism of urbanization efficiency by using model calculation, and strive to realize the theoretical innovation of the urbanization efficiency of our country to influence the mechanism of national economic development.
Therefore, this study tries to explore the problem of urbanization efficiency and policy selection in China's economic development. Through the concept of urbanization efficiency, we can guide urban development and change the mode of land use. Through the decomposition of the causes of urbanization efficiency, it can improve the efficiency of urbanization and reduce the social cost. It can lead people to pay more attention to the quality of development through the study of the mechanism of urbanization efficiency and its dependent objects. Through the empirical analysis of the relationship between urbanization efficiency and economic development, we can provide a theoretical basis for the choice of high quality urbanization policy and improve the efficiency of urbanization, thus promoting the urbanization efficiency. The fundamental purpose of economic development.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.2

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